<p>The Illinois cutoff, someone posted, for this year was 213? And apparently last year's was 218? WOW....a 5 point drop. How is that much of a change even possible? The maximum I was expecting for for any state's to drop was 1 or 2 points. I hope TX drops this much too haha!</p>
<p>I just posted this elsewhere. Short version: It has to do with rescaling of the Writing. Cutoffs have dropped three points on average.</p>
<p>why most states have lower cut-offs this year
Below is an email between college counselors that was forwarded to me. Interesting perspective on what's happening this year with NMSF thresholds.</p>
<p>It reads:</p>
<p>Jon, wonderful example of civil disobedience. I think youve already passed the Alices Restaurant standard of a movement.</p>
<p>Most reporters are describing lower cut-offs. Keep in mind that this does not represent a dumbing down of our youth, but a temporary(?) dumbing down at the College Board. When the new PSAT was introduced in fall 2004, there had yet to be any new SAT and there was certainly no new scale. The PSAT is traditionally put together from items vetted on the SAT. Prior to the new SAT, the Writing items had to come from the SAT II Writing (similar to the new SAT Writing, but just different enough). Moreover, since the SAT is a normed test, a scale could only be developed in relationship to a reference group. The March 2005 SAT takers were the first to receive honest to goodness SAT Writing scores on an honest to goodness SAT Writing scale. I know, its all becoming quite Orwellian.</p>
<p>The College Board had at least a couple ways of improving the situation for fall 2005 despite its claims in the post hoc rationalization for fall 2006. But they left things unchanged for 2005.</p>
<p>Thats why the first group of PSAT students to take a NEW NEW PSAT Writing section were those from last October. The scaling of the new Writing is a bit more challenging than the old, so Writing scores dropped 3.5 points on average. Hence the decline in National Merit cut-offs.</p>
<p>What this years decline also serves to remind me of is the steep run-up in National Merit cut-offs (in most states) in 2004 and 2005. Were students getting smarter? About the test, yes? Before the class of 2006, students had very little exposure to SAT Writing items a rather specialized style and grammar unto itself. SAT books did not include the items, few prep classes prepped for them, and they didnt help you get into college unless you had to take the SAT II Writing. Students responded as rational consumer theory would have them respond by not caring all that much about the PSAT Writing of old. All of that changed with the new SAT. We suddenly saw students, especially at the high end, take the test seriously. Mirabile dictu, these students got higher Writing scores and National Merit cut-offs climbed. The curious among you can plot the changes by looking at the College Boards College Bound Juniors reports for the last several years.</p>
<p>I don't know if I completely agree with the above reasons. My guidance counselor said to me that the class of 2008 overall SAT scores comparing them to 2007 overall scores, are significantly lower. Way more 2008 kids are having to retake poor scores than the 2007 class had to going into senior year in our general area, not just our school.</p>
<p>A lot more people are taking the test now. States where only the top students used to take the test should show lower scores. States where the test was required for all students should show little change. Add to that the changes in the writing section. Just a theory.</p>
<p>^^In what states is the PSAT mandatory?</p>