<p>
[quote]
Militant leader Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, blamed for thousands of deaths in Iraq, has been killed in a US air strike.
US President George W Bush said the death of the leader of al-Qaeda in Iraq was a severe blow to the group and had delivered "justice" to Zarqawi.</p>
<p>He acknowledged it would not end unrest but said the "ideology of terror" had lost one of its most visible leaders.</p>
<p>The news came shortly before the Iraqi parliament approved the key posts of defence and interior ministers.</p>
<p>The two crucial roles had remained unfilled despite the formation of a coalition government last month.
<p>even though his death is something that will boost the morale of the troops and the American people, think about it. We killed a TOP militia leader in Iraq. It can go both ways. It can cause violence to slow down. OR something that I believe that is going happen is the violence is going to increase.
Insurgents aren't likely to back down if their leader was killed and will try to avenge his death or just continue what Zarqawi wanted them to do.</p>
<p>i think they will become disorganized. fissures between militant factions will hamper their attacks. no matter what, you need a leader to prevent infighting.</p>
<p>I was so shocked (in a good way) when I found out about this. I buy into 2 pieces of analysis:</p>
<p>1) Zarqawi has either already appointed a successor or has established a line or system of succession. As many analysts have pointed out, he was the type of leader who went on the front lines and fought with his people. There were many close calls, and he died, figuratively, "with a gun in his hands." He knew the US was after him and he knew that sometime, his luck was going to run out and he would be killed. However, this new leader needs to orchestrate a massive attack a la the attack on the shrine in Samarra or on the UN compound in order to give himself credibility and create the same reputation and fear in Iraq. That gives the US, and the new Iraqi government, a window of opportunity to establish an effective counter-insurgency force & tactics and especially for the sects to unite. That would be ideal. Also, since he was betrayed by some very high-up officials, infighting is possible - they might not accept his choice of successor, etc. But this is infighting that might've already occurred or was already set to occur and not directly as a result of his death, but now it's made it more possible. This is ideal, but probably isn't going to be monumental.</p>
<p>2) He died a martyr; the al-Qaeda website and his family both proclaim him as such. In the future there will probably be some sort of group like a "Zarqawi Brigade" meant to avenge his death, carry on his legacy, etc. I have no idea about its success or anything else. This is just interesting. </p>
<p>However, he led the foreign members of the insurgency, a fairly small, though obviously effective portion of the jihadists in Iraq. The violence will continue (as demonstrated today), but there is now a window of opportunity, especially with the appointment of a Sunni minister today, that has not existed for a while, especially with Haditha hanging over our heads. If the sects take advantage of this - the people who want peace in Iraq, who are the majority - it could be a great turning point. It could also be just like when we captured Saddam. But they lost a great, charismatic leader who was a mastermind at coming up with new ways of killing for his PR and new stratagies to promote his goal of a civil war and a military government for Iraq.</p>