<p>I think we’re all just riled up after that 229 lol</p>
<p>@lonelynerd217</p>
<p>Hang in there…You have a great score…hoping for good news from OR.</p>
<p>School starts for me tomorrow, so I hope that i hear from my principal.
I visited him today in school, and he said that he did not receive anything yet.
I’ll keep bugging him over the next few days about this.</p>
<p>So from what I can discern, states like OH, OK, TX, and KS (and pretty much all other states with data available) have all risen significantly in 2014 compared to their respective scores in 2007 when commendation was the same score of 203. Since 203 is a national cutoff, that would imply that some states’ cutoffs would stay the same, or even decrease. Thoughts?
*this is all just speculation and I’m unsure of the exact calculations for these cutoffs</p>
<p>@atypicalasian</p>
<p>sorry man, i can confirm that 220 did not make the NMS semifinalist cut in california</p>
<p>emails sent out today.</p>
<p>Aww. Thanks for the update tho</p>
<p>Looking at the histories of the states with results posted at this point, the anomaly appears to be last year. This year looks like a correction to those relatively low scores, with a little overcorrection. Generally, the jumps look large compared to last year, but not out of line with other years. </p>
<p>State This Year Previous High Yr of Prev High Last Year</p>
<p>IA </= 211 210 (+1, if 210) '12, '09. '06 207</p>
<p>KS 216 215 (+1) '06 212</p>
<p>KY </= 212 212 '12, '07. '06 208</p>
<p>MI </= 212 211 (+1, if 212) ’ 07, '06 207</p>
<p>OH 215 215 '07, '06 212</p>
<p>OK 210 209 (+1) '12 206</p>
<p>WA 220 220 '12 216</p>
<p>Sorry about that! When I posted, it changed the formatting. But you can still get the jist.</p>
<p>I feel you bro</p>
<p>parkreation, one exception perhaps is NY, which had a all-time high in 2007 of 221 but has been reported to have a cutoff this year no higher than 219. This is still +4 over last year, but not higher than the 2007 figure, which would a huge relief for us since DD got 221 exactly.</p>
<p>Does anyone know where the thread with all the SF results went? Or have any info about floridas cutoff?</p>
<p>@yalesoon the link is here but looks like no FL info yet… <a href=“http://talk.collegeconfidential.com/national-merit-scholarships/1427971-class-2014-nmsf-qualifying-scores-51.html[/url]”>http://talk.collegeconfidential.com/national-merit-scholarships/1427971-class-2014-nmsf-qualifying-scores-51.html</a></p>
<p>How are you drawing any deductions about the trend of the data when we only have information about scores that made it? In order to deduce how the cutoffs are changing, particularly increasing when we only have data about what scores have made it. We need more confirmation of scores that did not make it to begin deducing anything about a trend. We do not have the cutoffs for those states only data points that we know are above the cutoff. We are really generally only learning that for at least some states the cutoff has not jumped more than a few points, not that the trend is up.
Sorry, that was a little harsh. We do have some states which we know, but not enough to draw a conclusion.</p>
<p>we’re in pa so I can speak to that. Score is almost always 214 or 215 since 1999. One year it was 217 and one year it was 216. This year, it is somewhere between 217 and 221. So for a steady state like that, even 217 is a jump and it’s least 3 points up from last year and 2 points up from 2012, one of the higher years nationwide. There are other states, such as Oklahoma and Kansas who are already known to have huge jumps when considering historical scores. As someone noted, so far, NY is the only known state to not have a huge jump based on historical data. I think it was a much higher score than last year but historically, NY was in the range of expected scores. so the early data does not look good. We’ll learn more today.</p>
<p>I ran through the data, comparing this year’s results so far with the historical cutoffs reported in the official cut-off thread, post #498:</p>
<p>So far, 9 reports don’t tell us much because the NMSF’s score is higher than any historical one, so the final cutoff could be anything lower.</p>
<p>Of the remaining 7 reports:
-two are confirmed to be the highest cutoff since 1999
-four are confirmed to be at least tied with the highest cutoff since 1999
-one appears to be lower than the record cutoff (but still +4 over last year, NY).
These numbers include the CA report that 220 didn’t make it, though that’s not in the official thread yet.</p>
<p>So 6/7 have either tied or broken the record. At least, that’s my take. However, 7/50 is a pretty small sample size, so maybe the trend will be different in other states. But so far, it looks pretty difficult.</p>
<p>Biting fingernails here in PA. DS is sitting on a 217 knowing now that 216 didn’t make it in PA. He’s going to ask his GC today and see if they’ll tell him if he made it or not.</p>
<p>What really stinks is that as a sophomore last year he got a 216 and would have been NMSF if he had been eligible.</p>
<p>I hear you Chiro. As the parent of a 216 kid in pa who wrongly assumed the odds were good, I know how hard of a place you are in. Thankfully for you, your odds are even better than ours. Good luck and let us know when you find out. Another thread noted scores of 219 made it in pa so that’s better than 221. Wish you and your kid the best.</p>
<p>Biting nails in Arkansas too with a 205. I would not be surprised at all to see a cut-off of 206. Good luck to all!</p>
<p>Everyone will know soon enough, but the early data definitely suggests an overall rise in the cutoffs this year:
- With the top 5% cutoff at 203 this year, which ties the record high in at least the last 11 years, we should expect that the top 1% cutoffs will also be relatively high this year in most states;
- Since last year’s top 1% cutoffs were near the bottom for most states in the past 11 years, those cutoffs are more likely to bounce up this year and get back closer to the historical averages;
- Though there are only a handfull so far, the early reports on state cutoffs this year are generally showing a 3 or 4 point increase over last year’s cutoff – moving 3 or 4 points in any direction has been relatively rare in the past (less than 20% of the time) EXCEPT in a year when there is significant overall movement; and
- You usually do not see more than 20% of the states going in the opposite direction of the overall trend in any given year.</p>
<p>The 2012 cutoffs increased in all 50 states from 2011, but only 5 states had an increase in 2011 over 2010. However, after the historically high schores in 2007, only 1 state had an increase in its cutoff in 2008. Coming off a year with relatively low scores, I would expect to see at least 80% of the states having a higher cutoff this year.</p>
<p>Anyone else from the Volunteer state feeling anxious? TN cutoff was 210 last year, with a record high of 217 in 2007.</p>