3.4 freshman GPA with extreme growth?

I received a freshman GPA of 3.4 from a school with no honors courses or AP courses (in Canada) If I receive a very high gpa for the next three years (I have moved to America with a school with tons of AP) and I get straight As and am in as many APs as I can, so I’m getting well above a 4.0 for the next three years, do I have a shot at a uni in California?

My understanding is that the UC schools don’t consider freshman grades. @Gumbymom can you comment?

You would be an international applicant? If not, what visa? Will you be a resident of California from a California high school?

Nope I am an American citizen and permanent resident. Not California.

When applying to the UCs, they do require you send your entire high school academic history. I am aware they only calculate the GPA they use for freshman profile and admissions statistics with grades earned only through 10th and 11th grade.

You will submit 9-11th grades for all a-g HS courses but the UC/ Cal State GPA is calculated based on the 10-11th grades (summer prior to 10th through summer prior to 12th classes). Since you are not a CA resident nor attend a CA HS, only AP/IB courses taken 10-11th will be considered for the extra UC weighting.

Private schools (not UC’s or Cal states) will consider your Freshman year grades with exception of Stanford.

Since you are will be either an OOS/International applicant, you will receive little to no financial aid from the UC’s or Cal states so expect to pay full fees at $65K/year. I would focus on California private schools if finances are an issue.

Do your best and the end of Junior year, see where you stand.
Here is some UC statistical data for 2019 to help you gauge where you should be in terms of GPA and test scores. Just remember that your Essays, EC’s, LOR’s etc… will all be considered depending upon which schools you end up applying.

UC/CSU GPA calculator: https://rogerhub.com/gpa-calculator-uc/

2019 UC capped weighted GPA averages:
UCB: 4.23
UCLA: 4.25
UCSD: 4.23
UCSB: 4.16
UCI: 4.13
UCD: 4.13
UCSC: 3.96
UCR: 3.90
UCM: 3.73

2019 Data:
25th - 75th percentiles for SAT totals:
UCB: 1340-1540

UCLA: 1330-1550
UCSD: 1300-1520
UCSB: 1280-1520
UCD: 1230-1490
UCI: 1250-1510
UCSC: 1200-1450
UCR: 1130-1400
UCM: 1020-1290

25th - 75th percentiles for ACT composite + language arts
UCB: 28-35
UCLA: 29-35
UCSD: 26-34
UCSB: 26-34
UCD: 24-33
UCI: 24-34
UCSC: 24-32
UCR: 21-30
UCM: 18-26

Thank you very much for this data. If my 10th-11th grade weighted and capped GPA is competitive with the 75th percentile, do you believe I should apply? Or do you think my freshman grades though not considered in the UC GPA calculation system are reason enough to not ?

If your Capped weighted UC GPA is around 4.0 or higher, your SAT/ACT scores are within range for the campuses of interest and the UC’s are affordable for your family, then I would apply.

your 9th grade grades do not matter at all (other than to make sure you didn’t fail any classes), so your GPA eligibility is all based on 10th and 11th grades. To have a reasonable shot at the top 2 UC’s (Berkeley and UCLA) you probably should be have a 4.20+ UC GPA; for the next tier (SD, I, D, SB), a UC GPA a reasonable shot would be 4.00+, and for the other 3 you need a minimum of 3.0 UC GPA but you probably need some something significantly above that. These are for the 9 University of California (UC) schools. There are also a lot of California State University (CSU) schools, who have different standards.

If you don’t know what a UC GPA is, it’s the capped weighted GPA for 10th/11th grade based on a maximum of 4 AP classes (in your case), generally around .30 above your 10th and 11th grade unweighted GPA .

Minimum UC GPA to apply for OOS/International applicants is a 3.4 which would be only competitive for UC Merced. Use the RogerHub calculator I posted after Junior year and you will have a better idea of your chances.

if you continue to get good grades, check all the a-g boxes and earn a strong SAT, most of the UCs would be happy to have you. I should add, they are crazy expensive to out of state students - so plan accordingly. Typically, well qualified OOS applicants can find a better value (through merit aid) elsewhere.

good luck