75th% and High GPA = Free Admission?

Chance Me / Match Me!
21

If the ED acceptance rate is 50%, then maybe you can assume a 60% chance. If the ED acceptance rate is 20%, you can make no such assumptions.

Keep in mind that the ED acceptance rate is typically higher than the RD rate. However,at some colleges, if you back out athletic recruits, major donors’ kids,and other heavily hooked kids, the difference id less statistically significant.

At the end of the day though, guessing an acceptance rate to a selective school for an individual without a complete application in front of you is a parlor game at best.

22

Vandy does not accept based on stats alone. It’s holistic. Nor USC.

“Assuming a kid applies ED, has a 4.0, and a really solid academic schedule, do they have a good chance (>60%) to get into a school with an acceptance rate of ~20%? Given that they don’t have anything that would really hurt their application.”

Absolutely NOT.
Again, these colleges do NOT make decisions based on stats alone.
You have a critical issue with your ECs, aiui. They matter. Any missing aspect can “really hurt their application.”

And even when a kid truly has it all, the school still has institutional needs.

23

@lookingforward

Gotcha. I’m sure you can understand my confusion, given that one member with 20k posts is saying one thing and another with 30k is saying the exact opposite.

I completely understand why you are evaluating me as such, but I am not a typical forum-er/applicant. For starters, I don’t care too much about where I end up (I’m really focused on finding fit, education prestige isn’t a big concern). Apart from that, I don’t have the conventional ECs (as you brought up, with context from my other posts). I’m going to hope that my character traits shown from my unique ECs are enough to make one adcom at a school like USC/Northeastern say “this guy is a great addition to our college.” If not, no big deal!

I’ve heard of three cases of some pretty awesome schools accepting people who have unconventional ECs but demonstrate other character qualities. That isn’t to say that I am confident with my chance at admission to top schools, but it does give me hope that it’s possible.

I think that comparing me to a typical, award-winning, club-founding, trombone-learning, acting-after-school applicant is pretty much impossible. My ECs are literally cleaning up a cottage with my family everytime we leave (ever week or so), helping with groceries and unloading for my extended family, doing chores around the house (a lot to go around with a shared cottage), putting in the docks for our neighbors in 50-degree water, cleaning out the boats, teaching people how to surf, tarping boats every rainstorm, and just simply living in a

Maybe I’m wrong, but I think that adcoms will look at me in the context of my environment and decide if they want me on campus. Comparing the value between putting in and taking out four docks and boat lifts in freezing water every year to a math-contest winner is something that I think only a college can do. At that point, I have to hope that I find a fit and demonstrate myself in a good context.

A “critical issue with my ECs” is subjective, right? Considering that there aren’t enough applicants like me to base that assessment on, and most college sites mention that “students will be evaluated in the context of their environment.”

I have nothing to lose when I apply to these schools. I have the money to apply, I have the time, I have safeties in Canada, and I have low expectations.

@skieurope

Understood! Thanks. I didn’t really want to get chanced, but I must have put this in the wrong forum (or it was moved, idk). I simply wanted to understand how 75th percentile stats affect admissions :slight_smile:

Thanks all

24

Whoa there, @FakeName1332 . I said that given all of the Naviance charts and other information over many years , I could estimate the chances of a student from a given group of schools to be a certain percent. In the case of Vanderbilt, which is a fairly popular destination here, an ED candidate from that group of schools with certain stats, likely has a 75% chance of getting accepted is what I can say.

Clearly, the result is 100% for any individual. But if a critical number of kids from that setting applied ED, the result would likely be that 3/4 of them are accepted. I also caveated this with the fact that, for any given unhooked kid, it’s likely less because there are often hooks in there that are unidentified.

This group of kids at these schools tend to have certain courses, ECs, LORs, be prepped in essays as the counselors, teachers and parents are familiar with the process.

The same stats would not apply to someone outside of that area. That is why I often tell kids on the forums to look st the Naviance info for their schools.If they are going to colleges that are get a lot of apps from that school, a lot of valuable info there, including an idea of your chances of acceptance.

Of course, if you are that black swan, an outlier from those students the stats do not apply. My youngest was very much a generic poster child for his school, but he had a high GPA, and good test scores. He was in the upper 10% , maybe 5%. Certainly not one of top 5 kids who are the ones who tend to get into HYPSMC unless they have a strong hook. My son had no real hook.

25

@lookingforward “Brown used to have a page showing who applied with what gpa and scores.”

This is dated by about 4 cycles. During this period it had gotten more competitive. Hope this helps.

https://web.archive.org/web/20141002221234/https://www.brown.edu/admission/undergraduate/about/admission-facts#rank

26

Thx, @Nocreativity1 !!
I was off by a bit but it shows how there are no guarantees.

27

Interesting that 10% of those with 33-35 ACT were accepted and 10% of those in top 10% of class were accepted. But what about those who were in both categories? And what of those who were 4.0 UW, and in top 5% and had a 34? My guess is that it would bump the percentage up to 12% maybe. Then, let’s throw in top academic rigor with LORs and essays done well as The college likes them. Maybe another % there. Then let’s make the applicant ED. No idea what kind of boost ED gives a Brown applicant but aim guessing there is s good one.

28

It’s confusing to you because the histories of how these schools accept students is not a linear thing.

No one can predict how the adcoms will accept a student with perfect or average stats.

They would compare you to a “trombone-learning” applicant because USC has a HUGE, well-regarded Marching Band, and if they need a quality trombone player, they will take the musician. This occurred with one of my oboe-playing students (not the best stats but a very strong musician).

I think you need to reconsider why you would want to attend USC because USC does consider what they need for their programs and do compare students. You have to look past your research-based numbers; it’s not strictly numbers. It is very holistic. Stats help, but that doesn’t mean you’re IN. You are basing your admissions chances on what you’ve read, but, in the end, the schools decide, who and what they need.

Also, USC wants a diverse campus and will look beyond numbers and accept students who are artists, athletes, poets, etc. These students may have established themselves with what they bring, and do not necessarily fit the written data you keep alluding to on this page.

If you were to get admitted, how would you pay the $72K per year admission? You can’t borrow that as an undergrad student. The university does have scholarships, especially for National Merit winners, but the scholarships don’t cover everything. It is STILL expensive.

29

It is generally better to be at the higher end of the range than at the lower end of the range. But being at the higher end of the range is no guarantee at the most selective schools.

The lower end of the range may have many of the special preference “hook” admits like recruited athletes.

30

@“aunt bea”

Was just an example :wink: Also, I was talking about comparing the value of something like learning the trombone to the activities I have done. I’m not sure they would say one is better than the other-- they would be evaluated in different ways, making them hard to compare in terms of value.

Does my school have to be registered on Naviance? If not, are there any resources I can use?

@ucbalumnus

Got it. Am I to assume that a 25th percentile score would really hurt my chances when compared to more average scores? I would imagine it varies greatly from school to school.

@cptofthehouse

My mistake! To clarify, you are saying that (from your experience) students who apply ED, have average (in relation to other applicants) ECs, 75th percentile scores, great GPA, and tough courses have around a 75% chance of admission at Vandy, correct? All assuming that there isn’t a part of the application that would be cause for concern.

@lookingforward

To clarify, this shows that there are no guarantees at a school like Brown; I was talking about having a good chance of admission to slightly-worse schools.

Regardless, that is very good information. I think I understand it pretty well now, thanks!

I’ll make a better chance thread later on when I have a more solid list :wink:

Thank you all! So much great information here, sorry if I’m being slow to understand some of it.

31

So to answer your title of your thread… Schools like Alabama might get a free ride in there.

My son applied with a 3.9 or so and 34 Act. I made him apply to schools from t10 to t50. I wanted him to have safeties that he would enjoy going to. He learned a lot about various schools and there are great schools not in the t10. Most schools below like t25 he was offered like half scholarships. Most schools the end result was almost identical. But there are schools like Miami or Ohio that have great merit. He didn’t apply to automatic merit schools.

Saying this since you mentioned Babson. We know someone there. It’s not that easy to get in and she describes the people there as brilliant minds. Don’t let the stats fool you. Essays do count and can really help separate some people out. Northeastern is not a shoe in either etc

After looking at many schools etc it does seem like the magical act score is 33/34, 3.8 unweighted and a great essay.

32

There are no “slightly worse” colleges in, say, the top 50+. That’s too superficial. All the good US holistic colleges want what they want. It’s their business to find that. (Even colleges beyond the top 50 are looking for what matches their realities, where their admits are likely to stick and succeed during the four years, as the college defines it. It’s a kid’s responsibility to get a read on what that is.)

From a student perspective, you’d like to think what you’ve done is your special narrative. But they’ve seen it all, have a more applications than seats, and can cherry pick the ones they feel best match them, their raison d’etre.

Maybe the trombone player, who’s also got the goods to thrive at that campus, beyond band. (Trombone might be a tie-breaker, not a lightning stike that pulls in a kid who’s weak for that college.) But more often, the highly productive, mature, engaged kids who can “show” a record of activation in various ways that matter to the colleges.

That’s true whether one lives in an urban/suburban area or remotely. Lots of kids in remote areas are out there stretching. What so many kids accomplish is more than just a few random good things, a little sideline work here or there. They can show vision (seeing opportunities, for themselves or for their communities,) and how they dove in.

There are no “empathy admits.” No “poor dear, he couldn’t find things to do, let’s admit him.”

Imo, cpt is saying something other than how you interpret it.

I don’t know how you’re researching or coming up with a list. But after you know yourself, warts and all, you have to learn what these colleges are, what they want, since they make the decisions about whom to admit. That’s what a good college search- and the 3.5 years of preparation- is really about. Matching. Not just what an applicant “wants.”

33

@lookingforward

I’m going to skip over a lot of what you said because I understand it and have noted it moving forward-- thank you.

I wouldn’t exactly call me an empathy admit. I have to really rethink my story if that’s how I am presenting myself. I think that my extracurriculars will be different, but I don’t think they will be full of excuses. It’s about how I lived in my environment. Sure, I could have gone into the city and done a long internship, but I am not going to do that because it would require too much of my family. Instead, I have become really involved in my own community and have thought of more ECs to list (similar to the dock, if you remember). I want to make my application really centered on my life over the past six years and demonstrate my character traits through life at the lake and growing up with an especially giving family. I can’t list medals or awards or clubs, but I won’t make excuses for any of it because I am not that kind of person. That extremely involved academic person isn’t who I am. If that means I can’t go to any top college, I can accept that. I will try my best to stretch myself within an environment that is possible for me and my family.

What I am hoping for is one or two adcoms to see my ECs and want me on their campus. You say that they (adcoms) have seen it all in regards to applicants. But I was saying how there are not enough applicants like me to make a valid prediction about my future-- not that I am a one in a billion applicant.

To clarify, I don’t think that comparing me to a typical student is exactly helpful. I took six years to finish high school, I am purely online, I had no supervision/help, I live in a village in Canada where there might be one other family around on any given day, I don’t have awards and medals but rather community-based actions throughout my life, I will have an essay/story that will be different as any other person, and I

I don’t think I am a great applicant. I don’t expect to get into any school better than, say, ASU. I just want to try because I know there is a chance some adcoms will like my story. With such a unique application, why not just wait and see what happens?

I have to be honest with you, I don’t really understand what the ‘big deal’ is here. As I mentioned before, I am happy wherever I go-- as long as I find a good fit for me. I’m not worried about where I end up, but I thought I would try to apply to some great schools as my family has the money and I have the stats to be considered. I don’t have enough time to really change my application, so what are you trying to accomplish here? I don’t mean to sound rude-- please don’t interpret this as hostile as it is not my intention. I am just trying to figure out what I have to do here. It seems like every conversation is telling me about a normal applicant will be better than me, to which I respond with a case of “sure, but there might be a chance for such a unique applicant that nobody can know.”

You are insinuating that my list isn’t good for me. I’m quite surprised as I absolutely love my list. Could you go a bit more in depth here? I haven’t been doing college research for 3.5 years-- I’m not even a year into it. I don’t know anyone in my life going to college, nobody I have ever known has gone to college in the states, my admissions counselor is pretty hands-off despite my attempts, and I don’t really know how to do this. I’ve done a lot of google searches on what schools on my list are looking for, often to find that I fit those characterizations. Then, I have made a lot of college threads on this forum to get a more personal touch, resulting in a lot of changes in my list.

I would really appreciate some help on how to do something rather than just being told that I am doing something wrong. I don’t know how to do this stuff and I don’t know how to figure it out. I figured that a college forum full of people with tons of experience would be a good place to start.

I love all the curriculums on the school on my list, most of them have a campus that I really enjoy, the people at all of these schools would be people that I would fit in with, the states are all places that I could live in for 4 years, the distance from home is all acceptable, the programs are all extremely intriguing, and the cost is all fine. So, I think it comes down to how well I match them. I searched every school and tried to find what they want and followed them all on social media to get a better understanding. I really don’t know what to do

34

You maybe happy with the realistic chances being low, but the way you write about your search communicates a little differently. (I’m saying this because OP and I had some extensive PMs.).

“centered on my life over the past six years and demonstrate my character traits through life at the lake.” But one doesn’t get into a top college based on lake life. It’s interesting in lots of ways. But one still needs to prove out based on more. You will be compared.

You aren’t a subsistence level kid, working to feed the family. (Even those kids can do the “more” that gets serious consideration for an admit, trust me on that.) I suggested ways you could use having a home in the city to explore more, do more, even in bits. At first, you agreed.

You love your list. But the task us to get them to love you. That’s more than “character” because you help with the cabin, when relatives visit, have cut fish, repaired some docks, etc. They want to see a connection between your choices and college life, as they want it.

Choices represent thinking, awareness, willingness, and more.
I’ll answer more, if needed.

35

@lookingforward

To clarify (I communicated this poorly before), I want to try to get into the best school possible-- I know that I would absolutely thrive in an environment like Brown’s-- but I will still be really happy if I go to a good ‘match’ school. I want to aim really high, but if I don’t make it I’m fine :slight_smile:

Is there any way to achieve what you are saying in the environment I am in currently? If you could suggest only one activity for me to do (in the city, or at my cottage) before I apply, what would that be?

Thank you for all your time. It’s really appreciated man <3

36

One of your other threads indicates that your high school record is 6 years long and it took 3 of them to get through 9th grade (with pass/fail courses) because you just didn’t do the work. That may be tough to sell to elite colleges.

37

OK, well, I think that’s been covered, and now the thread is turning into a chance thread that duplicates:
http://talk.qa.collegeconfidential.com/what-my-chances/2147060-weird-application-chance-me.html#latest

Given that the OP has admitted that some items are poorly worded, and many respondents have written as to being confused, and the conversation is drifting off the OP’s original intention, it’s time to close this thread.