A very different student

<p>I'm actually kind of new at this, I'm still in school, high school. One of my goals is applying for Harvard, but I'm afraid my scores may not reach the height the school suggests for someone to be accepted there. I'm sorry for my irrefutable ignorance, but I'm also wondering how high your score must be to be admitted into Harvard, and if the credits you get during summer school help when you are applying there. Also, I've been wondering, how old do you have to be to be able to attend the summer school??</p>

<p>I'm still a sophomore and I'm trying to gain as much knowledge about Harvard as possible to make sure that when I graduate, Law School will be what I'll be aiming for, for sure.</p>

<p>Hey Carlota, what you want to do is click the Harvard University Forum and click "start a new topic", then pose your question. You will get a better response that way.</p>

<p>Thank you...</p>

<p>I'm also kind of new on these types of discussions</p>

<p>:)</p>

<p>OP </p>

<p>all I have done is try to follow your story - and it does pass the smell test </p>

<p>perhaps specifics would prove this a special case, but I doubt it</p>

<p>BTW</p>

<p>Buying and selling houses is not "real estate development"
Building one house and apparently not selling it is not "real estate development"</p>

<p>"By the way, its easy to be a net success when 100% financing was available . Think about it."</p>

<p>An 80% capital loss on something 100% financed is called bankruptcy. </p>

<p>"You said the real estate market has been soft for "at least 3 years". lol, trust me that statement alone betrays your lack of education on the subject."</p>

<p>I was speaking from experience and personal knowledge, but I don't ask you to "trust me". </p>

<p>A simple scan of the Toll Bros. chart should suffice.
Using Toll Bros. stock price as a rough proxy for the RE Market:</p>

<p>All time high - 7/22/05 - $57.00
by 11/11/06 - $34.18</p>

<p>2006 high - 1/13/06 - $37.74
2006 low - 7/21/06 - $22.77</p>

<p>2007 high - 2/2/07 - $35.35
2007 low - 11/23/07 - $18.98</p>

<p>2008 high - 9/19/04 - $ 26.89
last $18.94</p>

<p>"I could go into detail, but I've been in enough internet debates to know that there is really no point. You will simply be never heard from again."</p>

<p>Details would be necessary to examine any of your claims. Real estate development is a capital intensive undertaking. Start ups in particular typically plow back profits into the company. In addition, 80% losses on real property held for only a short term are simply staggering. Details would be necessary to explain how bankruptcy was avoided. </p>

<p>As for my never being heard from again, you've never been heard from before. Your persona joined last week and all your posts have been to this thread only which you have used to disparage Harvard Admissions and Harvard or "Harvard type" students. </p>

<p>If you were really a 21 YO former mediocre HS student with fair board scores who through 3 years of work experience in the "real world" had something click and now wanted to pursue learning in the the most noble manner possible (for its own sake) at "fair Harvard", it would seem that the Harvard Extension School would be the obvious choice. (It would even let you keep your day trading job :)). But that's not who you are or what you are about here.</p>

<p>all I have done is try to follow your story - and it does pass the smell test
perhaps specifics would prove this a special case, but I doubt it
Buying and selling houses is not "real estate development"
Building one house and apparently not selling it is not "real estate development"
</p>

<p>In my case "development" meant buying a large piece of land, improving it via building roads and installing utilities, subdividing it and selling off individual pieces. If I wanted to, I could easily say that building a house is real estate development, but so is the above. It's merely improving real estate via buildings, access, or some other form of improvement. Yea, thats exactly what I did.</p>

<p>An 80% capital loss on something 100% financed is called bankruptcy.</p>

<p>Ok since it seems like its difficult for you to make the connection, I will make it for you. You asked me to explain how I could possibly be a net success. I'm not going to go into detail but just use your noggin for a second. If you buy a house for $500,000 via 100% financing and then sell it for $1 million a month later you would make around $500,000. If you then invested that into something else and lost 90% of it ($450,000) are you a net success? Yes because you still have $50,000 more than you started with. Think about it, its not rocket science.</p>

<p>I was speaking from experience and personal knowledge, but I don't ask you to "trust me".A simple scan of the Toll Bros. chart should suffice.
Using Toll Bros. stock price as a rough proxy for the RE Market:
All time high - 7/22/05 - $57.00
by 11/11/06 - $34.18
2006 high - 1/13/06 - $37.74
2006 low - 7/21/06 - $22.77
2007 high - 2/2/07 - $35.35
2007 low - 11/23/07 - $18.98
2008 high - 9/19/04 - $ 26.89
last $18.94
</p>

<p>You just used a single stock's individual price to gauge the entire US housing market? I can't even begin to explain to you how ridiculous this is. No offense but your experience in real estate and the stock market while I'm sure is existent...is very limited judging by this attempted analysis. First of all you would be better off looking at some housing ETF, or something that at least attempts to quantify the housing sector as whole, and even then you probably wouldn't get very accurate results. If you look at this link Real</a> Estate you will see the median price for new homes sold hit an all time high in 2007. You will also see that the average price of new homes sold hit an all time high in 2007. Finally you will see that the average US real estate price (everything) hit an all time high in 2007.</p>

<p>Details would be necessary to examine any of your claims. Real estate development is a capital intensive undertaking. Start ups in particular typically plow back profits into the company. In addition, 80% losses on real property held for only a short term are simply staggering. Details would be necessary to explain how bankruptcy was avoided.</p>

<p>Its true, details would be necessary, but I'm not going to get into that much detail, just some logic for you to follow and you will eventually figure out how I did what I did. For example..you say development is capital intensive and that is true, but you are assuming that I would had to have capital. That's not true. Remember I started off in finance and to this day it's still what Im best at. This is as much detail as I'm going to go into: I took advantage of lenient lending requirements and was able to leverage all my projects without ever investing a single dime of my money to start off with. I did reinvest my profits and thats where the 80% loss comes in that has you confused. As for my investors? I was a young guy (still am) so yes I needed them...but they weren't investing money... You should be able to figure out things from here. I hope.</p>

<p>As for my never being heard from again, you've never been heard from before. Your persona joined last week and all your posts have been to this thread only which you have used to disparage Harvard Admissions and Harvard or "Harvard type" students.</p>

<p>So why don't you tell me what your problem is. You may or may not believe me and thats fine, but that's not where your problem with me lies. What did I say to get you so perturbed, because you obviously are. Quote exactly what I said that bothered you and tell me why you think I'm being wrong and disparaging. I mentioned genuine problems I see with the world around me. Even if i was completely wrong (probably not) it would do our country some good to look around and take notice of problems before they snowball into a recession/depression. Months ago I wrote a blog about how I know (from experience) the financial industries are completely our of control and how deregulation has facilitated their fiscal irresponsibility which of course has led to what our country is going through now. Did anyone care? Nope. Not one person who read my blog even cared...i guess I was just being "disparaging" then too? Now everyone is on the deregulation bandwagon.</p>

<p>One more thing. In your replies you have attempted to draw conclusions relating to the real estate market and the stock market. No offense, but judging by these conclusions alone...YOU are the one that needs the education, not me. Are you a senior applying to Harvard?</p>

<p>Observing this heated discussion, and your somewhat defensive and condescending attitude toward Odyssey Tiger (of course he doesn't know the ins and outs of RE stocks, he is a high school senior), one might suggest you are not really open to the thoughts of 18 year olds. </p>

<p>And if you were to gain entry to Harvard, 18 yr olds are whom you would be living with, learning with, and arguing with, 24/7. </p>

<p>It's great you've gained so much real life experience, but perhaps a program of adult learners would be more appropriate for you. Without compassion for inexperienced youths, your contribution to campus life might be heartily compromised. </p>

<p>While your new interest in learning is noble, the Ivies are really for those young people who committed to academics early, consistently, and without regard to their personal dissatisfaction with regard to subject matter, poor teachers or other bothersome conditions.</p>

<p>And adcoms do look at your contributions to the world, through volunteer work or your choice of life's work. They are seeking some idealism and generousity of heart or pocket, which you claim "any idiot could do". Until you wake up, not thinking about "me first", your profile may not attract the adcoms who seek young leaders interested in solving world problems.</p>

<p>Penn Wharton could be a better atmosphere for you--your work experience could be a plus for the business undergrads.</p>

<p>Thanks for the advice. It makes sense what you said about the Ivies. In looking at it like that I would say you are probably 100% correct. I'm never going to be the guy who does what he's told in order to get a grade. Perhaps its my innate rebelliousness that keeps me from being Ivy material. We are all different though. </p>

<p>About Odyssey Tiger:I am open to his thoughts, but the facts is that he was far more offensive to me than I have been to him. His whole argument has been two-fold (each contradicting itself): 1. That I never accomplished much of anything. 2. He thinks I'm a liar and came into this forum just to brag about some imaginary accomplishments. So yes of course I was defensive. He would have been too had I gone into his (assuming he has/had one) "can I get into Harvard with these grades" thread and said "Those grades aren't a real accomplishment" and then "Oh I bet you didnt really get those grades". I turned 21 a month ago so we aren't that far apart in age.</p>

<p>Oh and I have always been interested in learning. Always. Knowledge is the most valuable commodity I know. Until now I simply chose to get my information outside of school. The internet is a great thing :)</p>

<p>I thought the question was obvious from the beginning, jobbig04: </p>

<p>what exactly have you accomplished?, I think it's become lost in translation. </p>

<p>(Also, I believe Harvard cut it's transfer program. You might want to look at Columbia GS)</p>

<p><what exactly="" have="" you="" accomplished?,="" i="" think="" it's="" become="" lost="" in="" translation.=""></what></p>

<p>My bank statements say differently. But that's OK, I didn't come here looking for praise, I came here looking for advice on entering a top school and whether or not it would be possible for me. Thankfully I have gotten some answers.</p>

<p>Also, no offense, but a 1250 old school SAT is no where near high enough for Harvard. That's a 625 average per category, and their 25th percentile is a 700 in each category; you'd be close to the bottom of their applicants based on grades and test scores. No offense.</p>

<p>None taken. You probably know much more about that than me. I'm sure my academic record isn't up to par. Based on grades and test scores I'm sure I would be at the bottom of pretty much every school! haha thanks</p>

<p>"In my case "development" meant buying a large piece of land, improving it via building roads and installing utilities, subdividing it and selling off individual pieces."
"If I wanted to, I could easily say that building a house is real estate development"</p>

<p>You could say whatever you want, but in common parlance developers take raw land and turn it into to approved, improved lots. Builders build houses on improved lots. Builder/developers do both.</p>

<p>Some further questions.</p>

<p>Did you buy the land approved or raw?</p>

<p>If approved, why was it being sold? (A Developer selling land subdivisions after approvals and prior to improvements is not typically a bullish sign.)</p>

<p>If not, how long did approvals take, what where your engineering costs and legal fees? How were they funded?</p>

<p>Was the road you put in public or private? If public, how much of a bond did you have to put up and how was that funded? How were the improvements themselves funded? If private, how does the ownership work, who is responsible for maintaining and repairing the road and other improvements? What is the legal form of this arrangement? If it was some sort of HOA, did it have to be reviewed by the state attorney general? If so, what were the related attorney's fees? </p>

<p>I could go on and on and on (what type of water and sanitary systems and whose responsibility, etc.), but in sum - what was the cost of the land, the total cost of the improvements, and the total of the carrying costs - how was it all funded and how long did it take from land purchase to completion of improvements? </p>

<p>Then how long did it take to sell?</p>

<p>“”An 80% capital loss on something 100% financed is called bankruptcy.””</p>

<p>“Ok since it seems like its difficult for you to make the connection, I will make it for you. You asked me to explain how I could possibly be a net success. I'm not going to go into detail but just use your noggin for a second. If you buy a house for $500,000 via 100% financing and then sell it for $1 million a month later you would make around $500,000. If you then invested that into something else and lost 90% of it ($450,000) are you a net success? Yes because you still have $50,000 more than you started with. Think about it, its not rocket science.”</p>

<p>No, its not rocket science. It’s magical thinking. You didn’t buy a house for $500,000 on 100% financing and then flip it a month later for $1 million. (“My company generated hundreds of thousands of dollars in revenue in the the year or so before the real estate crash.” By your own description, your total sales of houses and building lots was less than $1million) But even if you had, you didn’t make $500,000. Figure 75k in brokerage costs, mortgage and transaction fees and/or taxes. That takes you down to $425,000. So…when you lose that $450,000 on the next deal – you aren’t ahead, but in the hole 25k plus 3-5k per month in interest costs, plus RE taxes, plus insurance, plus utilities, plus, plus, plus any monies you took out to cover your own living expenses.</p>

<p>“You just used a single stock's individual price to gauge the entire US housing market? I can't even begin to explain to you how ridiculous this is.”</p>

<p>Please try.
The stock I chose was Toll Bros. National presence. Publicly listed. Top ten builder. Upscale homes. Toll Bros. IS a rough proxy for the housing market. Picture is no different if you look at the top ten builders as a whole (<a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2005/10/04/business/04builders.html%5B/url%5D"&gt;http://www.nytimes.com/2005/10/04/business/04builders.html&lt;/a&gt;) or if you look at earnings instead of stock price.</p>

<p>“No offense but your experience in real estate and the stock market while I'm sure is existent...is very limited judging by this attempted analysis. First of all you would be better off looking at some housing ETF, or something that at least attempts to quantify the housing sector as whole, and even then you probably wouldn't get very accurate results. If you look at this link Real Estate you will see the median price for new homes sold hit an all time high in 2007. You will also see that the average price of new homes sold hit an all time high in 2007. Finally you will see that the average US real estate price (everything) hit an all time high in 2007.”</p>

<p>Ever hear of the term McMansion? It was a rare builder who wasn’t building to the top (most expensive portion) of the market. (Where did your $700,000 house fit in?) Median and average prices per houses are of no use here.</p>

<p>What information in times series could be of use?
Sales Price per square foot (better yet, profit per square foot)
Number of permits pulled
Number of units sold
Average number of days on market
Average number of times asking prices were reduced
The percentages of houses that sold at, below and above asking prices
The average percentage drop from orig asking to final sales prices
The number of houses never sold (taken off the market)
The number of houses foreclosed upon</p>

<p>Its late
I’m tired
So I’ll stop here.</p>

<p>For now</p>

<p>"</p>

<p>You could say whatever you want, but in common parlance developers take raw land and turn it into to approved, improved lots. Builders build houses on improved lots. Builder/developers do both.</p>

<p>Honestly you are asking questions that have no place in what I did. I improved the lots yes, but they did not need to be approved by anybody.</p>

<p>Did you buy the land approved or raw?</p>

<p>Raw of course.</p>

<p>If approved, why was it being sold? (A Developer selling land subdivisions after approvals and prior to improvements is not typically a bullish sign.)</p>

<p>Thats not really true. Many developers simply buy land, improve it slightly and sell it. You don't necessarily have to do anything physical to the property to improve it, and there are all kinds of developers who specialize in all kinds of improvements. Sure, some do at all from acquisition to retail, but there are about a million ways to skin that cat. A developer can do or specialize in an number of fields,</p>

<p>If not, how long did approvals take, what where your engineering costs and legal fees? How were they funded?</p>

<p>None.</p>

<p>Was the road you put in public or private? If public, how much of a bond did you have to put up and how was that funded? How were the improvements themselves funded? If private, how does the ownership work, who is responsible for maintaining and repairing the road and other improvements?</p>

<p>Private road. Yes, the road is shared between the owners and a agreement is in place for them to share maintenance.</p>

<p>** What is the legal form of this arrangement? If it was some sort of HOA, did it have to be reviewed by the state attorney general? If so, what were the related attorney's fees?**</p>

<p>lol state attorney general? Where are you getting this information? Answer is no.</p>

<p>I could go on and on and on (what type of water and sanitary systems and whose responsibility, etc.), but in sum - what was the cost of the land, the total cost of the improvements, and the total of the carrying costs - how was it all funded and how long did it take from land purchase to completion of improvements?</p>

<p>Each lot has its own well. That well is typically drilled when the house is being built. Each lot has its own septic system which is also installed when the house is being built. Your other questions are too personal. Do you think I'm going to go through the trouble of divulging my entire P&L on the internet? I think I'm being more than obliging, considering that is this pretty much pointless to me.</p>

<p>Then how long did it take to sell?</p>

<p>Not very long. Put it this way, most people buy something and then hope to sell it. I don't really like doing it that way. I would much rather have a buyer before I ever start working on something. </p>

<p>No, its not rocket science. It’s magical thinking. You didn’t buy a house for $500,000 on 100% financing and then flip it a month later for $1 million. (“My company generated hundreds of thousands of dollars in revenue in the the year or so before the real estate crash.” By your own description, your total sales of houses and building lots was less than $1million) But even if you had, you didn’t make $500,000. Figure 75k in brokerage costs, mortgage and transaction fees and/or taxes. That takes you down to $425,000. So…when you lose that $450,000 on the next deal – you aren’t ahead, but in the hole 25k plus 3-5k per month in interest costs, plus RE taxes, plus insurance, plus utilities, plus, plus, plus any monies you took out to cover your own living expenses.</p>

<p>This is what bothers me about my peers. I just threw out a an arbitrary example that illustrated the power of leverage. Rather than attempting to understand the concept of leverage and how I could have taken on large projects with very little money, you attempt to pick apart the example. I asked you to use your head. This isn't HS, I'm not going to tell you exactly how things work that took me years of thinking. Think for yourself. When you start working outside of school your success will depend on whether you can formulate and of course understand complex concepts and put them into action before every other Tom, Dick, or Harry. Otherwise you will just be that guy that is only worth how much it costs to replace you. You asked me how I could be a net success despite the fact that I took huge losses. I said: leverage. I realize thats not explaining it to you fully, but if you stopped and used your head you should be able to extrapolate a little bit of my strategy. You will also be able to figure out why I failed, and if you keep thinking about it you will come across the very reason why our financial industry is a mess right now. </p>

<p>Oh and about that example, $75k in brokerage costs? Thats 7.5%. First of all I don't use realtors, and if I did and I sure as HELL wouldn't be paying 7.5% on a million dollar sale, what do I look like?.You are right, there would be other expenses. A couple thousand AT MOST. Why? Because If it were me I wouldn't go into the deal unless all those costs were accounted for. The biggest cost is one you didn't mention and that's closing costs. At its worst I would say I might lose $10,000, that's it. Once again though, this wasn't the point. I was trying to lead you to a concept so that you may figure it out. Trust me, when you leave school no one is going to spell it out for you. The biggest asset you have is resting on your shoulders.</p>

<p>Please try.
The stock I chose was Toll Bros. National presence. Publicly listed. Top ten builder. Upscale homes. Toll Bros. IS a rough proxy for the housing market. Picture is no different if you look at the top ten builders as a whole (<a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2005/10/04/bu...4builders.html%5B/url%5D"&gt;http://www.nytimes.com/2005/10/04/bu...4builders.html&lt;/a&gt;) or if you look at earnings instead of stock price.
</p>

<p>I know what Toll bros is, and yes I do realize its public company lol. I'm going to give you some more advice. I don't know why. The ONLY thing that moves the price of a stock is the supply and demand of its shares. Period. For example, if Toll Bros ceo died you can bet that their stock would drop a bit. Does that mean the housing industry has slowed down? Toll bros could announce a large share buy back which would likely cause its share price to spike, does that mean housing prices just spiked? Not really. They may or may not have been a rough proxy for the housing market before '07. I really don't know, and don't care to look. As I will show below, housing peaked in '07 and if Toll Bros did not, obviously its not a very reliable proxy. Even if it has tracked well with the housing market you never look at one stock to judge an entire sector. I can't emphasize that enough.</p>

<p>Ever hear of the term McMansion? It was a rare builder who wasn’t building to the top (most expensive portion) of the market. (Where did your $700,000 house fit in?) Median and average prices per houses are of no use here.
What information in times series could be of use?
Sales Price per square foot (better yet, profit per square foot)
Number of permits pulled
Number of units sold
Average number of days on market
Average number of times asking prices were reduced
The percentages of houses that sold at, below and above asking prices
The average percentage drop from orig asking to final sales prices
The number of houses never sold (taken off the market)
The number of houses foreclosed upon
</p>

<p>Those are all factors, sure. But they are only small parts. It would be wrong to look at one single part and judge the entire housing market. The housing market, like any other market, is controlled by one rule: supply and demand. If demand outpaces supply then you have rising prices, which is of course what we consider a "good" market. Look at the last statistic I quoted you "Finally you will see that the average US real estate price (everything) hit an all time high in 2007.” Thats the only one you need. That takes into account houses built, permits pulled, units sold, houses foreclosed, EVERYTHING. The average PRICE of ALL real estate hit an all time high in 2007. </p>

<p>Ok I'm done now. I'm not your teacher unless you want to pay me...if so maybe we can work something out. I've answered god knows how many of your questions, and a lot of your questions weren't even applicable to my situation to begin with. I encourage you to think critically for yourself. Your mind is your greatest weapon. A lot of the time, and some times quite literally (as in trading) the money you make in the world is money someone else could be making, or is coming directly out of someone else's pocket. You have to work harder and be smarter if you expect to keep any for yourself. </p>

<p>Lesson over.</p>

<p>You are funny.</p>

<p>I'll get back to this after work.</p>

<p>But for now I'll just start with a few additional questions.</p>

<p>We apparently have a different working definition of raw. </p>

<p>Where in this country can you subdivide land without the need to file engineered site drawings detailing the proposed improvements and proposed well and septic locations (and without engineering field work (test pits and holes) and follow up reports) and acquire at least local planning and BOH approvals? (In NY there would be various Town, County, NYCDEP and NYSDEC approvals and or sign offs required.) That's a serious question - I'm curious - since the time frame for all of this in at least certain parts of NY is typically more than a year.<br>
Even if there is such a place, how does one do it without running up surveying, engineering, and legal fees?</p>

<p>I'm done answering your questions after this so don't bother.</p>

<p>I can't speak for other areas, but where I was (yes I was in the county, not city..big difference) subdividing was fairly easy. All you needed was a surveyor and some satellite equipment. The well location was decided by the well drilling company, Want to know how they did it? I'm not making this up, its called "witching". They get 2 metal rods and place them in each hand and walk around, when the rods cross, they have located a fracture and that's usually where they drill (google "witching"). The septic is determined by the excavator, he usually searches for a good spot and when he finds a good one, he digs. </p>

<p>I developed very rural land. That's why I didn't run into any of the issues you described. A lot of the things you are referring to apply only in the city or densely populated areas where people actually care. Subdivisions in the city are especially tricky and require all sorts of BS (traffic studies, EPA studies, soil samples, geotechnical analysis). I know because I was involved in one of those as well. It never got off the ground though. </p>

<p>Developing is tough, but not because of the issues you described (in my case).</p>

<p>Actually I just had a thought. I know a lot about developing. I know a lot about finance. I know a lot about trading/economics. Quid pro-quo. What do you do? Are you at Harvard? If so its only fair that you start educating me on what you know/ are learning. You have some catching up to do, but when you catch up I will be more than glad to reciprocate by sharing my knowledge in the above fields. No ********. We can do it via email.</p>

<p>"What do you do?"</p>

<p>Amongst other things for the past 25 or so years - develop real property. :)</p>