<p>Haha, well I won't question your ability to do it (ah-hem). There are many ways to develop real estate.</p>
<p>Perhaps. </p>
<p>But the inability to recognize a market top more than three years after the fact is not a trait likely to allow one to do so profitably. </p>
<p>"Originally published in the September 2006 edition of NAHB HouseKeys this article is available to reprint as long as sourced appropriately. Example of sourcing: Reprinted with permission of NAHB HouseKeys (NAHB:</a> NAHB HouseKeys) and Ken Harney."</p>
<p>"Buying in a Soft Housing Market </p>
<p>By Ken Harney" </p>
<p>"Everybody knows the “housing boom” is over in most parts of the country. ..."</p>
<p>"Is a “soft” market a good time to buy? ... " </p>
<p>"..., slumping real estate markets also go by another name — buyers’ markets. Boom real estate periods, by contrast, tend to be known as sellers’ markets because most of the advantages are with sellers, not buyers." </p>
<p>"Unlike the boom years of 2003-2005, home sellers and home builders today no longer have the upper hand. ... Serious buyers are fewer in number and a whole lot slower to sign on the dotted line." </p>
<p>"Builders have to sweeten their packages of concessions in buyers’ markets — offering discounts, free upgrades and other deals that they’d never consider during the boom years. ..."</p>
<p>"There’s no question that softening real estate markets can look a little scary. Nobody can tell you for certain where real estate prices will go in the coming year. Nobody can tell you exactly where we are in the real estate cycle. Are we close to the bottom of the post- boom correction? Or is there still a ways to go?" </p>
<p>"Ken Harney is a nationally known columnist on real estate for the Washington Post Writers Group. His award-winning column, "The Nation's Housing," appears in newspapers in more than 100 major cities across the country. " </p>
<p>NAHB - National Association of Home Builders</p>
<p>Perhaps.
But the inability to recognize a market top more than three years after the fact is not a trait likely to allow one to do so profitably.</p>
<p>Not really, unless you some how plan to develop in every market of the country. Usually the only market that matters is the one you are working in. </p>
<p>**"Originally published in the September 2006 edition of NAHB HouseKeys
this article is available to reprint as long as sourced appropriately. Example of sourcing:
Reprinted with permission of NAHB HouseKeys (NAHB: NAHB HouseKeys) and Ken
Harney."
<a href="http://www.premiercommunitiesinc.com...T%20MARKET.pdf%5B/url%5D">http://www.premiercommunitiesinc.com...T%20MARKET.pdf</a>
"Buying in a Soft Housing Market
By Ken Harney"
"Everybody knows the “housing boom” is over in most parts of the country. ..."
"Is a “soft” market a good time to buy? ... "
"..., slumping real estate markets also go by another name — buyers’ markets. Boom
real estate periods, by contrast, tend to be known as sellers’ markets because most of the advantages are with sellers, not buyers."</p>
<p>"Unlike the boom years of 2003-2005, home sellers and home builders today no longer
have the upper hand. ... Serious buyers are fewer in number and a
whole lot slower to sign on the dotted line."
"Builders have to sweeten their packages of concessions in buyers’ markets — offering
discounts, free upgrades and other deals that they’d never consider during the boom
years. ..."
"There’s no question that softening real estate markets can look a little scary. Nobody can tell you for certain where real estate prices will go in the coming year. Nobody can tell you exactly where we are in the real estate cycle. Are we close to the bottom of the post- boom correction? Or is there still a ways to go?"
"Ken Harney is a nationally known columnist on real estate for the Washington Post
Writers Group. His award-winning column, "The Nation's Housing," appears in
newspapers in more than 100 major cities across the country. "
NAHB - National Association of Home Builders**</p>
<p>None of that matters. Nothing matters but supply and demand. Demand was outpacing supply (as evidence by higher real estate prices) until 2007. Supply and demand are what drive prices. Period. There are many factors that contribute to supply and demand: access to credit, inflation, jobs, but in the end they all factor in to the only thing that matters, supply and demand. </p>
<p>"Unlike the boom years of 2003-2005, home sellers and home builders today no longer
have the upper hand. ... Serious buyers are fewer in number and a
whole lot slower to sign on the dotted line."</p>
<p>lol. If buyers weren't buying (demand) at a pace at which supply couldn't keep up, then real estate prices couldn't have kept going up to all time highs. The law of supply and demand. To the author of the above quote's credit I hope he wrote that before housing numbers of 06-07 were released. I really do hope. If you want to judge if a market is going up or not you could simply say to yourself "is supply outpacing demand or is demand outpacing supply?" Of course its hard to know exactly what supply and demand are doing if you try to determine every factor that goes into them (credit, monetary inflation, and various macro-economic factors) but thankfully we have the law of supply and demand! If prices are going up demand>supply if prices are going down supply>demand. All the information you to determine whether a product is doing well or not is its price. Price shows you the winner of the battle between supply and demand. A battle which has everything already factored in for you. Which is of course what I gave you a chart of. </p>
<p>I feel like a teacher...which is ironic given the nature of this thread in the beginning.</p>
<p>As I pointed out before and you simply ignored, industry earnings peaked in mid 2005.</p>
<p>As I pointed out just now, according to the industry's own publications, the market peaked in 2005 and by Sept 2006 the question being asked in print was "Are we close to the bottom of the post- boom correction?" </p>
<p>But none of this matters to you. Any mention of earnings you have avoided beginning with your first post and to listen to you, well you obviously know more about the RE market than the National Association of Home Builders. </p>
<p>Please.</p>
<p>As for your first comment above - you have not been making a regional market argument. You have been basing your argument on national average and/or median sales prices.</p>
<p>As for the balance, I will only point out that what you have presented is an apples to oranges to pear trees argument. Despite your contention, that "All the information you to determine whether a product is doing well or not is its price", there is no generic "RE widget". Average prices are thus meaningless in isolation. A 30 year old 1200 SF bare bones starter on a postage stamp is not a new 3000 SF upscale subdivision colonial on an acre which in turn is not a 10,000 SF + custom tweaked job on 10+ acres in an estate area - even in the same market area. </p>
<p>For comparable units, prices peaked in 2005.</p>
<p>Is it so hard to understand? Sure maybe some earnings "peaked" in 05, that doesnt mean they fell in 05. In fact that peak last until 2007. </p>
<p>See this chart: Google</a> Image Result for <a href="http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/images/2008/US-real-house-price-forecast-april08-data.gif%5B/url%5D">http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/images/2008/US-real-house-price-forecast-april08-data.gif</a></p>
<p>Oh and about earnings, why dont we look at the cumulative earning for a few real estate investment trusts (REITS)?</p>
<p>Its true 2005 is when the **** started hitting the fan. But not in a catastrophic way. The market was still very strong until late 2006 and early 2007.</p>
<p>jonbig04:</p>
<p>I think you will find that most of us on college confidential, and most high-achieving college students in general, are quite friendly and encouraging. We all share the same goals, the same problems, and the same questions. Together, we get through the highschool years that, for us, are wrought with big decisions and exhausting rigor. When one of us gets to a top school, we don't whine and complain and gripe, but enthusiastically congratulate each other and wish the best. </p>
<p>But frankly, we are sensitive people too, and any person that comes on this forum with a chip on their shoulder and a defensive attitude is going to be viewed with a little bit of disdain. With all your experience in the work place, surely you have noticed this trend. At first, your story was very interesting and compelling, and many, I'm sure, wished you the best of luck and the American Dream. But you came onto this forum with an attitude and with your guns cocked to defend yourself. While I feel sorry that you have had to deal with a cold reception from all of us, you simply deserved it. </p>
<p>Throughout the first few pages of this forum, i felt compelled to private message you and tell you to keep your head up and keep going after your goal. I have ivy-league aspirations as well, and my scores and transcript, while good, are most certainly not up to par with everyone on this forum. I have been honestly told that, if my scores and such don't improve, my chances are slim. At the same time, I have received private messages that have encouraged me and told me that I need to keep going and working hard. I wanted to share with you the same thing, and encourage you. But you made it awfully hard when you turned this forum into a mud-slinging effort. You went from having a dozen opinions to having one poster who is challenging you economically. </p>
<p>All of us on college confidential feel deficient in some way, but most of us don't deride others and pity ourselves when someone else notices it. When you apply to Harvard, this is what comes with the territory. Please understand this. Before you drove everyone off, there were some good ideas that were given to you. The best was apply to a community college and work your butt off. Prove to Harvard adcoms that you are ready for the big leagues. That you have learned from your life experiences, and that you have both real world experience and academic success as well. This can be a "deadly" combination that might serve you well. </p>
<p>We on college confidential would like to see you succeed...but not with a chip on your shoulder. Quite possibly the greatest attribute you can have in applying to an ivy is humility. You might as well accrue it now, because it will most certainly come later in a harsh realization that most people at Harvard are light-years ahead of you.</p>
<p>Forgive me for rambling and good luck</p>
<p>.</p>
<p>*But frankly, we are sensitive people too, and any person that comes on this forum with a chip on their shoulder and a defensive attitude is going to be viewed with a little bit of disdain.While I feel sorry that you have had to deal with a cold reception from all of us, you simply deserved it. *</p>
<p>I agree to an extent. The lack of a degree has given me a defensive attitude. Trust me though, that attitude has been facilitated by the stereo typical nose-in-the-air "your not even in college" crap. However I still don't see what the big deal is. You all have been far more critical of me. On the first page, Techy questioned me and I responded with first a logical deduction and questioning of how the admission system works. I stated what I thought the goal of admissions was and then if that were the case (I have been told since then that its not) then why couldn't I be admitted? I then went of on a tangent about how I think my peers (the people I see day and and out the people my age, my freinds) view college with simply an eye towards monetary gain, and not an actual education. My point was the vast majority view college as a means to an end (money) and nothing more. I was advocating the need for education to be an end, not simply a means to one. Thats all. I then preceded to make my case for my I thought I had "the drive" to succeed at Harvard..which was questioned. So far my intelligence and my drive have been questioned. Then Michael Ye tells me to "forget about even applying into unis"...this guy does't think I'm even fit to apply. I asked him why, but go no answer. Then I had an interesting conversation with RVXC in which I explained my reasons for wanting a degree and how it had nothing to do with a safety net etc. Whats offensive about that? Then Odyssey Tiger comes in an questions whether I have even accomplished anything. And I'm the one being offensive?</p>
<p>*But you made it awfully hard when you turned this forum into a mud-slinging effort. *</p>
<p>Please! I have thanked everyone who has given be sound advice and have openly said I appreciate it. But I have defended myself against claims that I'm not smart enough, not driven enough, and the notion that I have accomplished nothing. To quote myself: One person accused me of being arrogant when I was telling him what I (think) I have accomplished. Fair enough, but I doubt he says the same things to people who come in here showing of their spectacular grades, because isn't that what this forum is about? Showing off your accomplishments and seeing if they are good enough? One person scoffed at what I consider to be my accomplishments. That's fine, but you have to wonder if someone came in here showing their academic record which wasn't good enough to get into Harvard, would he have said "HA, you will never get in, that's not even an accomplishment". It's doubtful. I did things a different way, and I always will; a surefire way to cause people to contempt you. Thanks for the advice...it seems like the alchemic admissions process of Harvard isn't as easy to quantify as I had hoped...About Odyssey Tiger:I am open to his thoughts, but the facts is that he was far more offensive to me than I have been to him. His whole argument has been two-fold (each contradicting itself): 1. That I never accomplished much of anything. 2. He thinks I'm a liar and came into this forum just to brag about some imaginary accomplishments. So yes of course I was defensive. He would have been too had I gone into his (assuming he has/had one) "can I get into Harvard with these grades" thread and said "Those grades aren't a real accomplishment" and then "Oh I bet you didnt really get those grades". Thats exactly what he did to me, yet Im the deriding one?</p>
<p>You went from having a dozen opinions to having one poster who is challenging you economically.</p>
<p>I was thankful and said so for all the opinions. Besides Tiger doesn't know very much which is obvious...even Fauve told me to stop picking on the high school student. Haha turns out he's an adult. Fooled us.</p>
<p>*All of us on college confidential feel deficient in some way, but most of us don't deride others and pity ourselves when someone else notices it. *</p>
<p>Show me who I derided. This is ridiculous. I defended myself against people who attacked me. Period. I also expressed my opinion about how education isnt as sacred as it shouldnt be anymore. Thats what seem to **** of Techy an spark this whole thing. Ironic that be defending education can **** so many people off. Look through the thread and see who attacks who. The problem some people are having is that I can defend myself. Thats why Techy is quiet now, and Tiger has changed his stance 2 times and is now trying to drum up some technicality. If you are going to attack someone, make sure you can fight back instead of complaining when you find out I may not be the dumb, ambitionless, liar that I have been accused of being.</p>
<p>Once again, show me who I derided. I've just been making my points well, I am the one who has been attacked. Please show me who I attacked for no reason.</p>
<p>If Tiger had gone into one of those threads where people state their academic accomplishments to see if they are good enough for Harvard and said to them that their accomplishments (grades, test scores, etc) were not even accomplishments and then questioned whether or not they even really got those grades and test scores, I doubt people would be attacking the thread starter, they would be attacking Tiger for being an ass. Yet he does this to me and I defend myself and I'm the mean one lol. Ok.</p>
<p>^ just LOL funny:)</p>
<p>jonbig04 my friend,</p>
<p>If you have had to take up 5 pages of this forum to defend yourself, then you obviously feel that you aren't deserving of Harvard yourself. That is, at least, the feeling I'm getting. You came in here wanting people to tell you you had a shot at Harvard, but were ready to argue with them if they said you weren't. More than trying to argue with them, you are trying to convince yourself even more. If I'm wrong, forgive me. This is not character assassination, just an impression! </p>
<p>So, go to a community college, get straight As, and try to transfer. At this point, everyone's patience has run out, and I don't think any more positive or encouraging statements are going to come from this forum, if anything more at all. </p>
<p>As always, good luck. It would be great if a person like you with your story could get into a top school. No one denies that. I sincerely wish you the best!</p>
<p>I was spending most of that time defending my character and what I think to be my accomplishments. I also have no problem with them saying I won't get in, as you can see if you just look back. I admitted just the other day that I probably wasn't ivy material. Thats ok! But others have tried to bring me down, looking back its pretty obvious.</p>
<p>Does Harvard take community college transfers? It just seems like they would see "community college" and laugh at me! How long should I go?</p>
<p>They do, just not this year due to housing shortage. But, if you apply as a transfer for fall 2010, you'll already have one year finished.</p>
<p>I believe Harvard accepts Spring transfers as well (you have a choice to apply for fall, spring, or either).</p>
<p>Oh I see what you mean. Hmm. I'll check that out. I looked into Denver university, a private school that is supposed to be the best, but I can't find the application deadlines I have a feeling they only admit people in the fall and not in January? Thats what it looks like, I thought they all were on a semester basis. I really know nothing about universities and how they work.</p>
<p>look:</p>
<p>Thanks I was checking that out, and their admission deadlines seem to say they only take students during fall. I emailed them and she said I have a shot, but I don't want to wait a whole year.</p>
<p>I believe Cornell takes community college transfers. Just go to their website and research their policy. Cornell is a very good ivy school that accepts way more applicants than Harvard. It has an amazing reputation and, quite honestly, their majors and environment seems to fit you much better than Harvard. I would seriously consider looking into Cornell. </p>
<p>Again, best of luck. Anything I can do to assist you in the application process, let me know. Obviously, I can't be much help with transfer questions, but any general questions I would be glad to answer!</p>
<p>Thanks I'll check it out. Stock market is going crazy these days anyway.</p>
<p>Apply to NYU Stern!!!!!!!!</p>
<p>"If Tiger had gone into one of those threads where people state their academic accomplishments to see if they are good enough for Harvard and said to them that their accomplishments (grades, test scores, etc) were not even accomplishments and then questioned whether or not they even really got those grades and test scores, I doubt people would be attacking the thread starter, they would be attacking Tiger for being an ass. Yet he does this to me and I defend myself and I'm the mean one lol. Ok."</p>
<p>Well, to clean up the analogy a bit, what you did was the equivalent of claiming in a standard “chances” thread that you scored a 2450 on your SAT I, a 740 on your calculus SAT II, 6’s on all your APs except for a 5 on your Multivariable Calculus AP and a 4 on your Linear Algebra AP, etc. etc. etc. :)</p>
<p>jonbig04, don't listen to what the other posters are saying. I think you have a great chance at getting accepted. Also, I find it admirable that you want to college just for the education. However, I do not see why you would waste your time, on a forum mind you, trying to convince others that you have a legitimate shot at being accepted. Just apply and see what happens.</p>