<p>Decided to crunch some numbers to lay out what the deferreds are up against.</p>
<p>ED applicants: 3,405
% deferred-21.53</p>
<p>So there are 733 people in pergatory. There are about 80 majors total in all 7 colleges so that breaks down to 9 people per major/college (yes, I know this is just divided evenly and some will have more and others less) that are deferred. </p>
<p>Total applications for 2009: 34,192
Minus the 3,405 ED and you get for RD: 30,787</p>
<p>Again divide this by the 80 majors (I am doing this because they only consider you for the major you applied to) and you get 385.</p>
<p>So, there will be approx. 385 apps. to consider for each major. </p>
<p>Total RD accepts last year was 5,689. Lets assume that stays the same. Divide that again by 80 and you get 71 spots left for each major. </p>
<p>So with alot of assumptions I conclude the following:</p>
<p>Each major is considering 385 RD apps. and 9 deferrals for 71 spots.</p>
<p>ILR only defers; it doesn’t reject? Certain colleges do not like to defer a lot. I know CAS, CALS, and a few others do not like to defer people.</p>
<p>I think your whole equation needs to change. Haha. Sorry, I don’t agree with your methodology.</p>
<p>Unfortunately, some majors are much more popular than others. According to IPEDS, Cornell has ONE graduate in German Studies last year (or year prior since IPEDS data is historical), 3 in Education, and 422 in AEM, 298 in Bio, 162 in Econ, 120 in Poli Sci/Govt, 228 Hotelies and 235 ILR. </p>
<p>Thus, the only way to estimate is to assume that the Deferred pool is interested in the exact same majors as the RD pool. Then, allocate deferrreds proportantely across majors (based on graduates? unless better data exists).</p>
<p>I would love to be able to calculate this with exact data. Without it, assumptions are obviously going to be off. If someone has the number of apps. per major, please let us know! I would also love to know the actual number of deferred per major (even for college would help).</p>
<p>totally uninvolved w Cornell’s process, but one thing that has not been discussed is the fact that the NYS schools at Cornell are being treated differently in all aspects of admissions this year…many. many of the deferred to Hum Ec, CALS, etc are in-state…will affect all remaining decisions apart from pure statistical stuff you are attempting…hope that makes sense…if you can find out your numbers w/o the land grant schools, you may be able to make a better calculation…but again, i say “maybe”…</p>
<p>OK, went to IPEDS site (thanks bluebayou, hadn’t heard of this site) and for the class of 2007 there were 3,467 undergrads who completed their programs. Of these, 298 majored in biology. So 11.63% is the number of bio majors. My D is deferred Cals/bio. </p>
<p>Using this still flawed method, it would mean of 733 deferreds 11.63%, or 85 are for bio. </p>
<p>Then take the RD pool (30,787) and apply the 11.63% and you get 3,580 applying for bio. </p>
<p>Take the 5,689 RD spots and apply the 11.63% and you get 662 bio spots available, with 3,580 RDs and 85 deferreds vying for these spots.</p>
<p>Yikes! Now I am truly depressed. Better work on getting D to fall in love with U. of Miami where she has been excepted into their Rosenstiel School of Marine Sciences with a $16,000 per year merit scholarship.</p>
<p>rodney makes an excellent point. Since CALS is a state contract college, it may give an admission tip to NY residents. And, since many bio majors apply to CALS…</p>
<p>Seriously I do not know where your numbers come from, but doing this math is neither helping the RD people nor are you getting the right numbers.
I think you need to check this: <a href=“http://cornellsun.com/files/images/Pg-3-Graphic.thumbnail.jpg[/url]”>http://cornellsun.com/files/images/Pg-3-Graphic.thumbnail.jpg</a>
The thing is, only 1249 people were admitted as Freshman from ED. A normal class size is about 3050. That means 41% of classes are already filled. So that means there are going to be 59% (1800 spots left).
Last year they got 6790 in, meaning that (minus the 1101 EDs = 5689 Acceptance with 1949 spots open (3050 - 1101 ED = 1949 Spots)) they accepted 3 times their “limit” with 2/3 declining.</p>
<p>So… IFFFF you want to be math crazy, with only 1800 spots left THIS YEAR, there may be 5400 spots held open for RD (1800*3). </p>
<p>733 Deferred + 30,054 = 30,787 RD / 5400 spots = 17.5% of acceptance IF it the process was some kind of dice roll.
It doesn’t matter what major you going for. In FACT, you aren’t even considering the people who chose UNDECIDED.
But of course, math forecasting is absolutely never accurate, and anyone believing anything by chance has to be seriously dillusional.</p>
<p>Playhacker you are confusing enrollment numbers with acceptance numbers. Many, many more people are accepted than actually enroll. Cornell has a 47% yield rate according to the new US News and World Report data. See link.</p>
<p>Playhacker, sorry. Just re-read your post and I see your point. I know these calculations are full of assumptions and are very inexact. Just trying to get a handle on what applicants are up against.</p>
![http://cornellsun.com/files/images/Pg-3-Graphic.thumbnail.jpg[/url]](http://cornellsun.com/files/images/Pg-3-Graphic.thumbnail.jpg%5B/url%5D){kind=link}
