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Disregarding the tongue in cheek aspect, I think those % are completely unrealistic given the 3.2 -3.4ish GPA trend OP is showing. I would put the first three at under 1%, and UCSD at about 10%.</p>
<p>Assuming OP at the end of Jr. year has 3.4 GPA and about 1700 SAT, then the matches would be UC Riverside, UC Merced, San Diego St., Long Beach St. and Cal Poly Pomona.</p>
<p>OP, the UCs and Cal States are willing to cut slack on the SAT scores, but absolutely not on GPA. For the top 3 UCs, it is uncomon for UC weighted GPA to be under 4.1… for the three mid-tier, 3.8, for UCSC 3.7, and for Riverside and Merced, plus San diego St. – 3.6. The UCs think there is a higher predictive value to GPA than for test scores.</p>
<p>You can look at this another way: THe mission of the UCs is to prepare students for graduate research. To do this, they target only the top 12% of graduating HS Seniors. Then you can further break that down by heirarchy within UC: Berkeley and UCLA target top 1-2% students, UCSD 2%, UCSB, UCD and UCI top 6%, UCSC top 9%, and UCR and UCM top 12%.</p>
<p>So you see even for the least renowned of the UCs, you’ve still got to be a top 12% student. YOu have plenty of time. Half of your GPA has yet to be determined, and you control your own fate Jr. year.</p>
<p>Last point: You can take a look at the USNWR ranking of top colleges. Start at a weighted GPA of about 4.5 (where APs are counted as 5 out of 4). For each band of ten colleges after the first ten, reduce the ave. GPA of accepted students by 0.1 So that by the time you’re at the USNWR schools ranked 90-100, you’ve got an accepted ave. weighted GPA of about 3.5. Then just keep going… .a 3.3 would be a fit for a school ranked in the 110-120 range… which isn’t a bad ranking at all considering there are over 3000 colleges in the US.</p>
<p>Lastly, take a look at the website collegedata.com There you can search for a University, then have a look at a scatterplot with GPA and SAT of the students who were accepted and denied admission. This will give you a decent idea about where you want to be, and also help you select appropriate target schools to apply to. <a href=“http://www.collegedata.com/cs/admissions/admissions_tracker.jhtml[/url]”>http://www.collegedata.com/cs/admissions/admissions_tracker.jhtml</a></p>