Chance for mid tier UCs: I, SB, SD, D

Who would you say has a better chance based off these stats? Because I hear UCs are very GPA-centric but I wonder to what extent.

Student 1:
UC GPA: 3.9
SAT (new): 1420
ACT: 30

Student 2:
UC GPA: 4.06
SAT (new): 1190
ACT: 24

  1. It will depend upon Intended major
  2. The historical admit range does not distinguish between a .106 GPA difference: Historical UC GPA for Freshman: Campus. UC GPA range of 3.8-4.19 UCB: 12% UCLA: 14% UCSD: 39%
    UCSB: 49% UCD: 53%
    UCI; 56% UCSC: 83% UCR: 90%
    UCM: 92%

Yes, UC’s are very GPA focused by they still consider test scores, HS course rigor and essays very important in their application review.

I would say Student 1 would have an edge over Student 2. Personally I find these what if’s an exercise in futility.

In the abstract I think student 1 would ‘win’ but, honestly strong ECs and essays could easily flip the order. Subjective factors and essays play such a large role, it is really hard to say one would be admitted vs the other.