That’s fair but my concern always is we’ve had some students mis- guess on their safety too. If they don’t want to share it’s fine. Just want to ensure they are good.
The student will be nmsf. At the right schools it helps. At others not at all.
Emory doesn’t look at your freshman grades in any of its admissions rounds. My point was that if you want to play the ED card, you are a stronger applicant at Emory than you are at other highly selective schools because they will view you as a 3.9 rather than than a 3.6. Your rigor sounds fine to me. You should find out from your counselor if they will be checking the box on your application that you took the highest level of rigor for your school. That is more important than the number of APs per se.
Your school’s track record with Duke sounds similar to our private school in Georgia. Our Duke admits have generally been Valedictorian or recruited Athletes. (One or two a year out of a class of 90). My S17 loved Duke and decided to apply ED too and was flat out rejected. He doesn’t regret trying for Early Decision because he is the type of person who would always be wondering “what if”. He understood it was a longshot and threw his hail Mary. He also didn’t have a second choice school that he felt strongly about, so he wasn’t worried about potentially giving up another opportunity by applying early to Duke My younger son was debating between an ED application to a Duke peer school and one that he also loved but was a bit less selective. He went with the second choice, was accepted and is very happy there.
Note that I am not saying you should not ED to Duke. Just realize that if Emory is your second choice, their acceptance rate drops from 30 percent to around 10 percent in the ED2 and regular rounds. It’s just something to think about when you talk to your college advisor. Emory is still a reach for you even if you apply ED1, just maybe a more attainable reach
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Would you be ok attending any of your 3 safety schools? If the answer is yes, you are in a good spot and can apply to any reach schools you want. If you don’t know, then you need to continue your research and find acceptable safety schools. This is the most important list to make. Creating a list of reaches is easy.
Once you have your list of safeties, you need to speak with your guidance counselor and find out which reach schools might be possible (if any), based on your school’s history.
IMO Tulane. Emory, and Wake Forest are reaches, but not crazy impossible reaches. There is nothing wrong with applying as long as you have secured a list of safety and target schools. ED at Emory would help, but as you know not a sure thing.
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Objectively, you’ve done really well with a great upward grade trend and really good test scores and activities. But, as others have said, the schools on your original list are all reaches, some high reaches, with perhaps the exception of Miami and Georgia. Duke is a high reach, based on your GPA but also because, even if your GPA was several points higher it would still be a long shot. Going down the rabbit hole of comparing yourself to one particular individual who got in and then extrapolating the differences to make a case for why you could get in, is dangerous. Admissions at highly rejective schools like Duke is holistic and unpredictable. You could have the exact same stats and GPA as the person you know (or higher test scores and GPA) and not get in and you’ll likely never know why. It could be your essays, it could be your rec letters, it could be that you’re female and he’s male, or, most likely, it could be that the year you apply they had other applicants with similar demographics/stats/activities that they liked better. Duke is a big long shot, and if you decide to ED there, know that the result will likely be a “no” (as it would be for anyone) and that you’ll have given up a shot to ED at a school where you have a somewhat stronger chance, like Emory (although Emory is still a reach).
You’ve also said that you have three in-state safeties and that you’re OK with attending them, so you’d rather take your shot at your reaches and if they don’t work out, just go to one of your in-state options. Think through this carefully, as we see a lot of posts from students who apply to a reach-heavy list and think they’re OK with their safeties in the fall, but then when they don’t get into any of their reaches are very sad and disappointed in the spring. In hindsight, they they’d applied to more targets/matches but by the time they realize this, it’s too late. It’s really brutal getting rejection after rejection, even if you think you’re prepared for that result. Project out a year from now, and imagine that you’ve gone through the college admissions cycle, and ended up only gaining admission to your safeties. Put yourself in your future self’s shoes, and try to imagine if you will have wished to have applied to some targets - even if only to have gotten some other acceptances so next May you’ll feel like you have a variety of options other than your in-state safeties. I think that a "hedge your bets’ approach is almost always best, as it will give you options down the road, even if you don’t think right now that you’ll want/need them.
Best of luck to you!
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Thank you for the advice - the thing with me is that I am guaranteed a full ride to the three safety schools I mentioned (not reliant upon NMSF/NMF) status so they are likely to be cheaper than almost anything that an OOS school can offer, though I am taking a look at those which give full rides to NMSF. My guidance counselor at school says that I should be all but guaranteed to admit into these three state schools, and in spite of my GPA, my ACT is already well past their 75th percentile.
There are two more schools in state which I consider reaches, though my counselors consider them high targets at best. I am guaranteed a full ride to one of the two if admitted, which also happens to be the flagship state school - a relatively more sought after one these days. My ACT is at the 75th percentile for both of them, and GPA around 25th percentile. You’re right that I would be a bit disappointed to attend one of the three safeties, or perhaps even one of the two in-state "targets:. But this is mostly since my extended family is rather prestige-obsessed. I have a very young sister, but my grandparents most likely won’t see her go to college, and of course admissions will only get harder, so I feel its important for me to “deliver” after being the first to have the privilege of growing up in the US. I think that for myself, I will get over the lack of prestige in enough time, especially as I see that state schools are also in no shortage of high achieving students and opportunities all for a low cost. I also understand that prestige isn’t nearly as important for someone who still has aspirations of potentially transferring or pursuing graduate education.
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The name of the college might be prestigious, but it’s your college resume, gpa, and relationships that will help with your first job or acceptance to grad school (given your career path in public health and biology). It’s on you.
Your instate options sound fantastic! Congrats! I would do some research on the opportunities within the depts of biology and public health.
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Have you given any thought into what you would like to do with/in public health and biology? It’s ok if you don’t know, it’s very early and you may change your mind several times.
** I just noticed that you discussed possible career paths.
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