Chance me for junior with decent stats [3.98 GPA, 36 ACT] but nervous about impossible admit rates

Submitting for my daughter class of 24. Decent stats but very concerned about what sounds like impossible admissions numbers for some of the competitive schools we are looking at. Decent ECs that she is extremely passionate about but no major national awards (depending on outcome of speech nationals next month). Feeling hopeful about a likely and target and have some small LACs with very high admit rates for safeties. Not sure if she’s a realistic candidate for the reaches without a significant hook and if we should add more targets to the list.

Current high school junior

  • US Citizen
  • MN
  • Large public high school, rare for anyone to match at T20
  • Female/Caucasian

Undecided but interested in law

GPA, Rank, and Test Scores

  • Unweighted HS GPA: 3.98
  • Weighted HS GPA (incl. weighting system): 4.22 (unsure of system)
  • Class Rank: 16 of 670
  • ACT/SAT Scores: ACT 36 (34 Math 36 all others) - one sitting

Coursework

  • 4AP, 2DE so far, 3 AP and 1 DE senior year. AP Calc BC this year.

No national awards. NHS. Several leadership awards at her school. Expect to qualify for NMS semifinalist

Extracurriculars
Music - one of 5 girls to make top choir as junior. All State choir.
Speech - Very involved in speech, won rookie of the year as freshman. All conference all 3 years. Qualified for Nationals this year.
Mock Trial - Dual all state honors (attorney and witness). Holds school record for highest individual tournament score. Elected team captain.
Works as barista at coffee shop.
Teaches a summer speech camp for middle schoolers.

Essays/LORs/Other
*TBD, excellent writer, expect strong LOR

Cost Constraints / Budget
Fortunate to be able (and willing) to pay full pay at any school on the list

Schools

  • Safety Some local LACs
  • Likely University of Iowa
  • Match University of Wisconsin - Madison, Loyola University (Chicago)
  • Reach Rice University (likely ED), Wash U, Univ of Chicago, Northwestern

It’s a reach for all, but I think you have about as a good a chance at Rice ED as any unhooked applicant could hope for. My D22 was admitted to Rice RD last year as a humanities major with very similar stats (and also choir ECs), and I think it was helpful that she identified a specific research program at Rice that fit nicely with her intended major and goals. Is there any course/professor/program at Rice that would be especially helpful to a future lawyer with a strong background in public speaking?

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Definitely ED. All of the reaches you mentioned give a considerable boost to ED. Also, WashU & UChicago both have ED2 so if she does ED1 at Rice and gets denied she can still do an ED2. Wisconsin should be a match, but it was weird for some of my classmates this year so not as dependable as it used to be for high stats students.

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That’s great advice, she isn’t sure about a major yet. I think she’d do well at a LAC but she thinks they are too small.

We did a campus visit this spring and she absolutely loved it, particularly the college system.

Congrats on your daughters admission, how is she liking it?

I think that U. of Iowa is a safety (I’m pretty sure it’s fully stats based and she could run the calculator before applying to confirm). Loyola Chicago is a likely…probably so likely that I’d even consider putting it in the safety bucket.

She definitely has a realistic shot at any of her reaches. Even if she is 2x as likely to be accepted as other applicants, though, she’d still have less than a 20% chance of admittance…so 80% chance of a non-admittance. But I would certainly have her apply and would not be surprised at all if she were to be accepted to any of her reach schools.

If she thinks they’re too small, then I would look for different safeties. It appears she has a definite preference for colleges in cities, preferably in middle America. Has your family considered any of these all of which I would consider likelies that are so likely, they’re probably in the safety bucket.

  • Bradley (IL): About 4300 undergrads; 59% of classes have fewer than 20 students and 2% of classes have more than 50 students.

  • Butler (IN): About 4500 undergrads; 45% of classes have fewer than 20 students and 4% of classes have more than 50 students.

  • Calvin (MI): About 3100 undergrads; 37.4% of classes have fewer than 20 students and 1.2% have more than 50. You would want to make sure any school is a good fit, but this school is probably more of a fit school than the others on this list.

  • Creighton (NE): About 4500 undergrads; 43% of classes have fewer than 20 students and 4% of classes have more than 50 students.

  • Marquette (WI): About 7700 undergrads; 49% of classes have fewer than 20 students and 9% of classes have more than 50 students.

  • Saint Louis (MO): About 7800 undergrads; 39.6% of classes have fewer than 20 students and 7.4% have more than 50 students.

  • U. of Dayton (OH): About 8600 undergrads; 38% of classes have fewer than 20 students and 2% of classes have more than 50 students.

  • Xavier (OH): About 5100 undergrads; 42.9% of classes have fewer than 20 students and 1% have more than 50.

Check the schools’ common data sets, because their classes between 20-40 might mostly be in the 20s or they could be more in the 40s (and a class with 25 feels very different than a class of 45, at least to me). If those don’t feel “liberal arts college”-y enough here are two other possibilities:

  • Truman State (MO): Missouri’s liberal arts college has about 3900 undergrads and 63% of classes have fewer than 20 students and 2% have more than 50. The school, though in a town, is in a remote location.

  • Hope (MI): Has about 3100 undergrads; 60.2% of classes have fewer than 20 students and 2% have 50 or more. Holland is not remote and is considered a charming town, but it’s not a major metro.

Pre-law can be done with any college major.

Here is information on how admission is done: College of Liberal Arts and Sciences First-Year Admissions (or choose the appropriate division at First-Year Admissions if the desired major is not in the College of Liberal Arts and Sciences).

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She absolutely loves it! It was a great freshman year. I can’t say enough good things about Rice.

Thanks, these are good recommendations. I think Creighton and Marquette in particular might fit what she’s interested in, will look further into them.

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If she’s a NMSF there are schools that offer significant scholarships like a Fordham or USC. She might have to be open to leaving the Midwest.

Why not an app to UMN? Good school. It won’t be HS 2.0. Good to have an in-state option as a safety.

Maybe add Michigan?

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Why not add your in-state flagship U as an additional safety? It will be your cheapest option by far, preserves money for other uses, like law school.

She really is an excellent candidate. I think that she has a chance at Wash U, maybe Rice. I think that your matches are more likelies. She sounds as if she’s headed towards law school, so can major in anything, anywhere. The most important thing for law school acceptance is going to be high GPA and high LSATs, both of which sound very possible for her anywhere she goes, but if the school is less competitive, she could get a 4.0, be summa cum laude.

You want her to stay relatively close to home? Should she add Carleton? U Mich? UIUC (Illinois)? If you want merit, add the automatic merit schools, like Alabama, Arizona. If you want name schools that she has a fair shot at, I would say she has a chance anywhere with a 10% acceptance rate or higher. Certain state U schools will give her merit bringing tuition close to in state for you. And 3rd tier LACs would likely give her substantial merit.

She may apply to UMN but my wife is very anxious about the issues they are having with crime. Also my daughter really wants the college campus experience which she loves at Madison and Rice, the urban feel at UMN isn’t as appealing to her.

She isn’t married to the Midwest, just haven’t looked at the coasts. She thinks NYC is too big and our one rule is that we need to be able to get there on a direct flight from Minneapolis or have a reasonable drive. Some of the New England colleges seem to be difficult to get to (like Vermont for example).

I’m not familiar with Fordham, will check it out. Michigan sounds like an amazing school but we get tuition reciprocity at Madison and it feels like they’d be similar but maybe I’m wrong? Certainly more difficult to get in to and I don’t want to load her up with a ton of rejections.

Madison sounds like a great safety, then.

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I think this shows that you know your daughter well and realize the psychological toll that a number of rejections can have. If she has a clear first choice, and your family is willing and able to afford all the schools on her list, then going ED sounds like a smart move.

Throwing an app at U. of Iowa early might also have a very reassuring effect, if she would be happy to attend there. I think I’ve heard of admissions responses coming back within a matter of hours. The psychological impact of having an admit can be very soothing and powerful.

There’s no need to have an extensive list of schools to apply to. If she’d be happy at all of the schools above, then there’s no need to add on schools.

If ED doesn’t go as hoped (assuming she EDs), then a school that your family may want to consider as a “match” that would have a higher percentage of academically similar peers is and where I suspect your daughter’s odds might be greater than 50% are:

Brandeis (MA): About 3600 undergrads and there are 6-8 flights/day from Minneapolis
St. Olaf (MN): About 3k undergrads and less than an hour from Minneapolis

You could also think about
Loyola Marymount (CA): 8-9 direct flights/day
U. of Denver (CO): About 5900 undergrads with 14-21 direct flights/day

All 4 of those (plus Creighton and Marquette) offer college Mock Trial and Speech & Debate.

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Why not add your in-state flagship U as an additional safety? It will be your cheapest option by far, preserves money for other uses, like law school.

She really is an excellent candidate. I think that she has a chance at Wash U, maybe Rice. I think that your matches are more likelies. She sounds as if she’s headed towards law school, so can major in anything, anywhere. The most important thing for law school acceptance is going to be high GPA and high LSATs, both of which sound very possible for her anywhere she goes, but if the school is less competitive, she could get a 4.0, be summa cum laude.

You want her to stay relatively close to home? Should she add Carleton? U Mich? UIUC (Illinois)

This is a very sensible list. With Madison as a high quality match, I’d consider applying EA so that if your daughter gets in, she can apply to the Honors program by the priority deadline in late February so that she will have a decision in Mid March to compare against other RD choices, assuming she doesn’t ED or is not accepted ED anywhere.

If Rice is a clear first choice and is affordable, then go for it. If she likes the feel of a residential college system, she should also take a look at Harvard or Yale. They will be greater reaches than Rice, but they are also SCEA vs ED so she and you can preserve your options even if she gets in. Just looking at the profile you put up, I think she has as good of a shot at either school as any unhooked applicant who didn’t win some recognized national/international award.

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Of the LACs we’ve looked at St. Olaf is definitely her favorite. Also my alma mater, loved my time there! =)

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Thank you for the encouragement!

Since she loves the college system we thought about visiting Yale but it seems like it is a nightmare to get to New Haven from Minneapolis so doesn’t meet the easy to get to requirement. From what I can tell, we’d have to fly into La Guardia and then it’s a 3+ hour train ride? Or I suppose we could just rent a car but not sure how long that drive would be. Still thinking about it, would obviously be a super duper reach.

I didn’t realize Harvard had the college system, will check it out although also feels like an impossible reach but will see if she’s interested.

It’s only an hour to 90 min drive. Airport shuttles go to New Haven. You can look at flights to Hartford, which is 30-45 min away. If you are thinking of a summer tour, easy driving between NY to Boston with a stop in Providence.

Harvard calls its residential colleges Houses.

Agree, diluting the list with too many super reaches is counter-productive, but I think she has the goods to take a shot or two.

Madison would be iffy. I would not consider that a safety.

She will get into lots of colleges. The key will be for her to find the best fit. LAC vs public. Small, medium, large schools.

I recommend she submit a music supplement.

If she is sure she wouldn’t like NYC, then Fordham is out, but otherwise I agree with others that it would be worth a look. It is a lot like Loyola Chicago and other Jesuit schools in that it is a nice medium size. Fordham has a beautiful traditional gated campus in the Bronx that has about 8,000 undergrads. There is also a 2,000 undergrad campus, which also houses the law school, just 2 blocks from Central Park in Manhattan. There is a full-tuition scholarship for NMS (not guaranteed, but about 70% get it.) Could apply EA, and would be a nice acceptance to get in December on the off chance her ED pick doesn’t turn out. It’s been a really positive place for our S22, and there are many direct flights from Mpls that make it easy for us to visit, even spur of the moment.

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