Chance me for UW Madison--and only Madison

-Background-
I’m a straight white male from Minnesota attending a very rigorous private, Catholic, military, “college-prep”, all-male school. I’m currently a Junior but have been looking at colleges for a while now and UW Madison is one that has consistently been at the top of my lists. I have been on campus many times and everything about the university feels perfect to me. I want to major in engineering, specifically biomedical, but I doubt that will pan out and I’m okay with settling for something else. I would be heartbroken if I couldn’t attend, but I also want honest feedback–don’t hold back from crushing my feelings.

-Stats-
GPA: ~3.4 (bad start, huh? Freshman: ~3.3, Sophomore: ~3.6, Junior: currently 3.3)
ACT: 32 (considering taking again to see if I can get a higher score if it even matters now)
AP World History: 3
AP Calc AB: 4 (maybe, I plan on studying really hard for it)
AP US History: 4 (maybe, we do a lot of prep in class and I enjoy the subject)
I want to take AP Biology, AP Statistics, and AP Economics as a senior.

-Extracurriculars-
Cross Country: 3 years (Most Improved Award 2015)
Nordic Skiing: 4 years (Varsity last season)
Quiz Bowl: 2 years
Band: 5 years (Equipment Manager this year, Section Leader next year, also been playing instruments since second grade)
Podcast Club: 1 year (Co-founder)
Logic Club (we solve Rubik’s Cubes and play strategy games): 1 year (Co-founder)
Make EDM for fun: 1 year
Will be getting a job as soon as I can drive.

-Things to Note-
A lot of people in my family have attended UW Madison. (both parents, sibling, cousins, aunts, and uncles)
Will be going on an ecology trip to Costa Rica over summer break, one of the instructors said it really looks good to colleges when kids go on trips like this. (He also happens to work very closely with UW Madison professors.)
Have gone to UW Madison’s summer music clinic once, and plan on going again over the summer.

-Letters of Recommendation-
English teacher I am friends with, has seen me grow up for the past 5 years.
Biology teacher that I have only known a short amount of time, but really admire and who is also helping on my Costa Rica trip and is also a graduate of UW Madison.
Math/Physics teacher who I haven’t made the best impression on, but has seen me demonstrate a good work ethic and also likes me.
Nordic Skiing coach who has also seen me grow up for 5 years, also had him for life and earth sciences as a middle schooler.
Maybe my confirmation sponsor, who I’ve known for a year and a half but has seen me spiritually mature and we have become good friends.

-Closing-
I’ve shown a lot of people this and they say I have no chance, but I really don’t want to give up so easily. I want to prove all of those people wrong. UW Madison is my dream school and I really hope I can attend in just under two years. In addition to comments and notes for me, I would really appreciate any insight on how to better my resume before applications are due next year.

MN residents are not quite instate, not quite out of state, so is harder to gauge chances. 32 is good, 3.4 UW is problematic. If I had to predict, I’d say deferred, and then could go either way. Direct admit for engineering is unlikely though in any event. Does you school use Naviance, or does your GC have experience with UW admissions to be able to predict? I

In the meantime, keep working away to bring that gpa up. If you think you might squeeze another point or even two out on the ACT, that could help. UW does not superscore, so it would be the highest composite from a single sitting.

Alternatives might include University of Iowa. MN Twin Cities is also unlikely for direct admit for engineering, though probably ok for Arts & Letters admission.

I didn’t plan on doing direct admission to engineering, I already know I’m too far behind for that. I have an idea for an essay that I have shared with my college counselor who says its a really good idea. We have naviance, and I’m apparently pretty far behind GPA-wise, but ahead for ACT. Other college chance prediction sites say that I have either an average chance or just below average chance. University of Iowa looks like a good school, but I wouldn’t be able to afford it. I’m looking at UM Twin Cities, but I would prefer to leave the state to get away from my parents.

Agree with your stats being problematic. Junior year is the last year seen- not great grades nor AP test scores. Given your ACT score it appears as though your study skills are lacking with the lower grades. You may not be preparing well for UW with its rigor.

Regardless of your stats and any improvement you need to have other choices that you like. Yes, UW may be your favorite (for good reasons) but you need to be realistic and explore other schools.

I think you’ll get in. In my experience, people at my school get in with 23 ACTs. I don’t see how you could “not have a chance.” Just try to get As (esp in AP classes if they’re weighted) to raise your GPA. Apply directly to the engineering school too, it can’t hurt.

Addenda, your “Background” info is irrelevant. Your gender orientation, HS attended et al does not matter. Learn to give less info, especially online.