Chance me

I’m building my college list, and am currently very heavy on reach schools. I have the stats and ecs that I don’t think anywhere is entirely out of the question, but with acceptance rates under 15% it’s obviously a long shot. Any ideas for lower reach/target schools given my information (maybe 15-30% acceptance rate)? I’m looking at the Northeast and Midwest, 2,500-10,000 undergrad, preferably with access to nature, and strong math and political programs.

-No SAT given Covid, but I am a National Merit Semifinalist

-GPA: 4.0 (UW), 4.71 (W)

-APs: USGov (5), USH (5), modern world (5), lang (5), BC Calc (5)

-IB: SL Econ (6)

-Senior year courses: AP Bio, AP Compgov, AP lit, Symphonic Band, dual enrollment with community college for multivariable calculus

-Awards: AP scholar with distinction, national merit semifinalist, I got a 100% on the USGov exam?, some school awards (student of the month, book award)

-Activities: mock trial (team captain, we placed 2nd in the county), debate (2-1 record at county tournament), instrumental music (school band, pep band, private lessons at local conservatory), math honor society tutor, reading partners, rec soccer

-Jobs: camp counselor during the summer, paid tutor during the year

-Recs: counselor will probably be super generic, teachers should be good, employer has known me for a decade and seen me grow

What is your home state?

Do you know what your budget is?

My home state is Maryland, and I am definitely applying to UMD. Cost may factor into my final decision, but it’s not a factor in my applications.

A scholarship is the safest bet, especially with all the financial uncertainty going around. That’s guaranteed money for 4 years and a debt-free start to a career or graduate school. It’s worth it’s weight in gold.

This is a bit counterintuitive. So you’d apply to places your family wouldn’t be able to afford to bask in the glory of tippy-toppy acceptance, and then go somewhere else because of the better finances? I see the temptation, and we recently had the same phase in our family but ultimately decided it wasn’t worth it, and the NPC calculator became our basic tool in shortening the list.

I am constantly amazed at how straightforward the University of Arizona is with its formula for guaranteed, 4-year scholarships. Your tuition would be $6k/year there, and it’s strictly stat-based. You’d be in their honors college if you care to apply. It looks pretty awesome, brand new, and if not for our D’s aversion to its desert climate, it’d be our No. 1 safety.
There are other similar schools (UofNM, Alabama, etc.) but I think UofA stands out in that regard for its ranking and culture. A nice safety I think.

Can your parents afford $300,000 or more for you undergraduate degree? If they can, find 2 safety schools like UMD and apply wherever you like. Shoot for the moon. Acceptance rates are low but you would be a competitive candidate for almost any school with NMSF status. Duke, Georgetown, Chicago, Notre Dame, Ivies.

If they can’t afford $300k then you need to be more selective with your list. Applying to schools you can’t afford is a waste of time and takes away from schools you might actually be able to attend. Run the NPC for your schools to see where you stand.

Thank you for the advice! What I meant by the financial factor is that cost is not strictly prohibitive, but if I do not get accepted into one of my top choices, it may not be worth it to forgo in state tuition or a possible merit scholarship. Since I have not been able to visit schools yet due to Covid, I do not know which schools would be worth the heftier investment until (hopefully) I can visit for admitted students.

I don’t think I’m going to apply, but I was looking at University of Rochester and it doesn’t seem too bad.

My brother actually goes to UofR and really enjoys it! If you don’t mind very snowy and dark winters it might be a great option for you.

Also, any idea for chances at Wesleyan, Middlebury, Tufts, other schools just a step down from ivies/stanford/chicago?

You will be considered for merits at UMD, possibly be awarded a partial or full Banneker-Key scholarship (make sure you meet the early action deadline).

You might get a boost at UChicago with early action/decision. Wesleyan and Middlebury are small, it seems that they fill a big chunk of their freshman class with EA/ED applicants; you might be waitlisted if applying RD (not that your stats are not good enough).

HYPSM might actually be less “unaffordable” than others with their substantial FA. Does your family qualify for FA? I suggest University of Pittsburgh as a target/safety and Carnegie-Mellon as a lower reach.