Don’t do myintuition. Do the net price calculators for the schools themselves.
So to chance her - sure, she has a chance everywhere.
But when you are NMSF and you need $24K, you also have a chance to 100% meet budget. You said some schools were more than you can afford - so sure take a loan, get a job now (In HS), during the school year, in summer, etc.
Or and I saw someone mentioned Tulsa (for a small school) where 1/4 of the student body is natl merit because who doesn’t like full ride? It was linked above by @ikg4answers- or if you want to be in the NE, U Maine - which looks like free tuition although you need to keep a 3.3.
Other top contenders and they’re not small but for your budget - Alabama NMF which is you get finalist is 5 years free tuition so grad school, one year housing and an annual stipend of $4,000, Alabama Huntsville, UArizona, UTD (natl merit), Florida State national merit - and there’s many other “guaranteeed” at your cost. There’s also schools like the W&L Johnson (and meets need otherwise, so look at their NPC) and SMU and their Presidential.
So in summary - yes there’s a chance at some of these - and there’s other meets needs that will be easier - an F&M, Lafayette, etc.
But if you can’t get to budget, are you willing to trade off for a larger school in a different geography that will get you there and in some cases comfortably under based on auto merit and/or national merit. It’s a tradeoff perhaps but it saves you and the student from being financially strangled, potentially for years to come.
Good luck.
Bowdoin College - Net Price Calculator (studentaidcalculator.com)
Welcome | Net Price Calculator (collegeboard.org)
2024-2025 First Year Merit Scholarships for Maine Residents - Undergraduate Admissions - University of Maine (umaine.edu)
National Merit Scholars – Afford (ua.edu)
2024-2025 First Year Merit Scholarships for Maine Residents - Undergraduate Admissions - University of Maine (umaine.edu)