Hoping to study International Relations
Profile:
Caucasian, out-of-state, male
Academics:
GPA: UW 3.9, W 4.1
SAT: 1440 (780 verbal, 660 math)
SAT II: US History 760, World History 760, Spanish 550 (probably won’t submit that one)
AP:s Environmental science (5), English (5)
Senior year taking AP Literature, AP Calc, and Government. Non AP Spanish 5, Physics,
ECs:
Eagle Scout with over 80 hours of community service and several Troop leadership positions
Ad-Hoc secretary for HS International Club
Model UN (Freshman/Sophmore year only, club was disbanded due to lack of a faculty sponsor)
Boys State Delegate / scholarship award
Works part time in a grocery store
Four years JRTOC with various leadership positions and participating in extra curricular activities through the program
Still working on his essay, should have several good recommendations.
What do you think are his chances?
Thanks in advance
About 12% 
Really once you get to a certain point its a crapshoot imo. Just look through CC and see the many threads where 35/1550, 4.0UW, tons of EC kids are denied from top 20 schools then here comes “Master/Miss Holistic match” with a 1380/30 and gets right in.
ORM you just never know what will happen, but his stats are right smack in the middle, so there is that.
All you can do is apply and cross your fingers and have a back up plan.
We are in the same boat as you:
1 guaranteed
2 safety
11 Reaches
Apply and see what happens.
Depends on “fit.” I see your son nailed the environmental AP exam. JHU has an awesome environmental engineering tract. Can your son improve his math SAT score? I see he is taking AP physics. If not Interested in engineering, is he interested in public policy and the environment? What are his true academic extracurricular interests? What I am saying is that you can increase odds well above the 9.9% admissions rate for the class of '22 if the school is genuinely a good “fit.” And applying ED will help too! Good luck!
If Hopkins is his top choice and you can afford it, have him apply ED. The acceptance rate is much higher and the admissions folks are very upfront about that.