Chance of Being Accepted to UCB

<p>Hi everyone,
I'm an international student from France and I'm transfering from Santa Barbara City College in fall 2011. One of my school's choices was Berkeley. I applied for the Social Welfare major there, which I know is very popular and therefore very hard to get into. I do have a 3.7 GPA with all the pre-requisit stuff done. I wrote kick ass personal statements, was nominated twice in the president honor roll and finally is member of the international honor society PTK.
I went to see two different counselors whose ideas about me getting accepted were different ( one told me I had an almost non existent chances to get in ,( she did not even look at my transcripts) and the other told me I had fair chances).
Since budget cuts on public school in C.A in 2008 which led to UC school accepting more and more international students because of what they pay ==> Do I have chances to get accepted !?
Thank you i advance for your help and hve happy holiday!
ps: I also applied to the global studies program of UCLA</p>