Years ago, I made the poor decision to start a chance thread. One of the first responses stressed that the schools mentioned were clearly unattainable. This week, one of those unattainable schools issued that same student a Bachelor of Arts degree. That same student, looking to enter that unattainable institution, will be attending Columbia University School of Journalism on a scholarship this fall. Yep, accepted into the Master’s program.
I provide this information so that people will appreciate that when it comes to the chance threads, anyone can respond, regardless of their expertise on the particular schools. Some of those responding may not have any in depth knowledge of the ECs and their requisite discipline. Given the lack of controls over those responding, there is no mechanism for ascertaining the reliability of the information they provide. In fact, it is purely opinion and conjecture. While I may periodically discuss this site when speaking with high schools students, there is never a time that any mention of CC is made without a repeated statement - “Stay away from the chance threads.” To the question, “What are my chances?” no one on CC knows.
Most of the people who respond are not GCs or AOs and that’s exact what they provide: opinion and speculation. Students are looking for help and advice from unvetted strangers. I looked at your old threads and the advice you received IMO was accurate given the info you provided. The fact that you beat the odds is wonderful and clearly the advice you received didn’t deter you from applying which I’d hazard is true of 98% of the kids posting chance me threads. They’re looking for validation of their dreams and aspirations.
I think everyone should apply to the schools they most want. They should also cover their bases. Here on CC , there is a tendency to go right to the most selective schools, the name recognition schools, easy to pick them from any college book, list, internet search. That’s the easy part of the search.
Yes, sometimes someone gets accepted which is wonderful. It’s always wonderful when someone gets what they want. But the fact of the matter is that’s Rare. The statistics clearly bear this out. When it works out, all is well; it’s when it doesn’t and the kid didn’t have a sure pick and some reasonable chances as well, that there are problems. Or if the family can’t afford the school after all is done.
To say anyone has no chance of getting into a college, has no business applying, shouldn’t apply is not appropriate or true. We don’t know. We never know the whole story. We don’t even know if the sequel is true.
So we try to give the odds as they are, and suggest that alternatives are researched. Not just picked at random while salivating over the lottery tickets, but putting sone thought into the realist choices.
I would never advise any kid to try to take the route that my kid took, and if any kid asked to chance them on a route like my kid’s, I would say “don’t even bother”. Remember that you are a sample size of 1, and are not even close to being representative of what happens to most kids who decide to take your chosen route.
For every kid like you, there are twenty who post how devastated they are because they did not get into even one of their reaches. You belong to the 5% or so who took the chance you took and succeeded. However, you are ignoring the 95% who fail. What you are doing is almost as bad as kids who succeed, and then believe that they were always destined to succeed, not that things aligned just right for them.
Yes, dreams can come true. However, they usually don’t.
Hello @Tampa2015, congratulations on all your achievements. I would love to hear more about your journey. What was the way you described yourself in that “Chance me” thread (e.g., GPA, SAT, ECs, etc.)? Why do you think posters downgraded your chances at Columbia (and those other similarly-considered schools)? In retrospect, what do you think stood out to the admissions folks and led them to the opposite conclusion? What lessons and advice, if any, would you provide to current HS students? Thanks!
-First congratulations on your accomplishments and wishing you continued success going forward.
–Second, I do not like the chance threads myself (and yes, anyone can chance anyone else) but I think most seasoned posters do not discourage people from applying to a reach school or two, but rather stress the need to also find match and safety schools that appear affordable and that they would be excited to attend. Way too many people on CC focus only on the top tier/reach schools and neglect to do the research/work needed to find great and affordable match/safety schools.
– Third, your original chance thread http://talk.qa.collegeconfidential.com/what-my-chances/1648733-chance-dd-at-amherst-wellesley-barnard-georgetown-and-emory-p1.html had you with an ACT of 24 and a SAT of 1670 (presumably out of 2400) which makes the top schools a major stretch. You said you were going to study for and retake the standardized tests. If your did as you said (did you?) and your scores came up a great deal (did they?) then the major issue seen by the posters in your chance thread would have been nullified and hopefully you would have recognized that as being the case.
Again, I am not a fan of chance threads on CC and I agree with your comment that posters don’t have in-depth knowledge of ECs (and I would add essays and LORs to that list as well). However, when the facts change (ex. ACT increase from 24 to 32/33 superscore which is a huge uptick) then the “chance thread” must be updated for the replies to have any validity. It is wrong to say that posters on CC were dead wrong when you were chanced with a 24 ACT, told your standardized tests were too low, and then applied and got acceptances with a 32/33 superscore ACT.
That said, I wish you continued success in your academic career.
And it’s a responsibility of reporters to convey an accurate picture, not just an indictment of others who went on incomplete info then- and still do, now. So you’d have plenty of blanks to fill in for us.
But sure, Chance threads are incomplete. They don’t share the full application.
The second link may not be about OP. In fall of 2016, you were asking about a kid yet to apply. If he/she started in 2017, that’s not 4 years.
@lookingforward Yes, you are probably correct. If the OP’s standardized tests did not go up significantly I’d be interested in knowing where she ended up (perhaps a test optional school)?
The post was to warn about the folks responding to Chance Me Threads.
The final ACT score was 27 superscored. The final SAT score was 1790 superscored. One of the persons who responded to the request mentioned in comment #7 had personal knowledge of Barnard and her advice was spot on. Note that some challenged her positions calling her information stale. As noted in the original post, got accepted ED.
Got accepted everywhere an application was submitted. Did not submit to Georgetown, Wellesley, Amherst or Emory because those were being submitted the very day Barnard’s acceptance came out. (Recruiter/admissions officer at Emory indicated student would have been admitted Same for Wesleyan University). Because of ED, could not apply anywhere else.
Always had safeties covered which is why they were not mentioned in chance inquiry. Got accepted to three in-state schools with scholarship offers. Full ride to at least one state school, one private school, and invitations to apply for scholarships at others (but got into Barnard ED). Also got accepted at private schools.
Made the Dean’s List three times in college. Dean’s List must be 3.6 GPA for the semester. May have made Dean’s List last semester waiting on final grade from one class.
I made this post so that other students who get discouraging comments (i.e., from soze’s noteworthy’s analysis), will know to take those opinions as just that - opinions. No hate - just guidance and perception.
It still doesn’t explain why the OP would start another Chance Me thread so soon after the first one proved so useless? Something’s not adding up. I’d like to see the candidate’s reply to a Class of 2020 results thread.
Btw, this is precisely why I rarely respond to Chance Me threads: the postmortems.
In your original thread you did not mention that you or your DD had a hook which you appear to reveal in later threads. That definitely affects the chancing.
@circuitrider – the second, 2016 thread was not “chances” – it was posted in the financial aid topic and was asking for sources of merit money for a higher stat student. Those requests are pretty common on CC – and usually people respond with info about colleges that offer guaranteed merit money based on stats.
@TomSrOfBoston -there was plenty of info in the opening post for Barnard admissions, which is why I then gave the advice I did. The first listed activity is & was huge for Barnard, at least up until quite recently. With that info alone, Barnard was a pretty good bet, especially in the ED round. The problem is that CC is obsessed with test scores, and although Barnard wants scores to be submitted, their admissions focus much more on high school GPA, rank, & various types of ECs that they value. So my opinion then (and now) is that the high school transcript, class rank, and extensive dance background would have made Barnard a match for any applicant to Barnard back in 2014. (Admit rate was still about 24% at that time, and above 40% for ED. So it made sense for the student to leverage those strengths with an ED app). No one could have guaranteed admission, but Barnard was a definite match for that student.
Since then the admission rate has plunged — putting Barnard in “reach” territory for just about all applicants. There’s just a very big difference between a 1:4 admit rate and a 1:8 rate that makes admissions more quirky and unpredictable.
But the point is, the OP was given horrible “advice” by people who can’t do math. (That is, the math involved in looking at CDS numbers). - and who had no direct experience with the schools in question.
I’m not a fan of chances threads, but I do make a point of countering bad advice about the only schools I have direct experience with.
But of course the OP can only know the outcome from Barnard, since that was the only school applied to. But I still think the best source of information about how a college weighs standardized test scores is in the CDS, not CC.
I’m still confused. How did the OP hear from all those other colleges, if she was accepted by Barnard ED? Wasn’t she supposed to withdraw all her other applications?
For every chance me thread in which the student has high aspirations and manages to overcome the odds, there’s another thread in which the student underestimates his or her potential. There are students who don’t realize that they have compelling stories and interests, and who think there is no way they should aim that high.
A couple of years ago, I had a message out of the blue from a student I didn’t remember. He told me that thanks to my response, he felt encouraged to apply to his dream school, despite not being a “perfect” applicant. I had to go back and find the thread. That student had some very interesting ECs and his background was such that I felt he had a chance at more selective colleges.
Sure, stay away from the chance threads. I rarely look at chance posts. I do read posts from students who ask specific questions pertaining to their situation. Many students have no good source of personal feedback, so they come here. The tone of the OP seems to imply that you shouldn’t believe what you read here on CC because people who respond are clueless. Sometimes that is true, but it’s not unreasonable to assume that a lot of the people who post regularly on CC are not clueless and genuinely try to give good advice based on personal experience or being professionally involved in something related to higher education.
I totally appreciate what you are saying OP. Even long time posters with lots of experience can’t predict outcomes as we aren’t seeing the rest of the applicant pool at any given college.
However, IMO, it’s much more important for students to understand when their list is reach heavy and that they need safeties.
It’s an amazing, happy surprise when a student gets into their dream school in addition to safeties and matches. Totally devastating to get in nowhere because you’ve overreached or didn’t consider the finances.
I think that’s what the majority of responders are trying to make sure students and parents understand- EVERYONE needs a balanced list. And, responders are going to say something if there is a disconnect between stats and a school’s CDS, or when a list has zero true safety schools.
Thank you for asking. Barnard issued its ED decision in December 2014. Many schools have rolling admissions. One full ride was in hand in October 2014. Early applicants get early responses and those other acceptances were before December. After acceptance by Barnard, where the only ED application was submitted, no additional applications were submitted.
