Chances at Bowdoin Next Year (ED)

Hello. I am a current high school junior and I am considering applying early decision to Bowdoin next year (really in a few months). I was wondering if y’all could give an estimation of my chances.

Basic information:
I am an American citizen who currently lives abroad and attends an American-system school that offers AP/IB courses. I’m currently interested in studying history, politics or economics.

Statistics:
Current GPA (UW): 3.51 (3.37 Freshman, 3.46 Sophomore, 3.7 Junior)
Class Rank: School doesn’t rank
SAT: 1530 (750 CR+W, 780 M)
APs: Spanish (5), I will also be taking the World and US exams this May, and I have been scoring within the 5 range on practice multiple-choices
SAT Subjects: Math II (720), US History (750)

Extracurriculars:
-Speech and Debate (multiple first place individual placings in multiple regional tournaments) (9, 10, 11, and definitely 12)
-Model UN (runner-up for best delegate in an international conference, multiple senior chairing positions and senior leadership position at my school’s MUN club) (9, 10, 11 and definitely 12)
-Academic Quizbowl (first place individual in a local tournament, will likely be leader next year) (9, 10, 11, definitely 12)
-School Newspaper (I write an opinion piece once in a while) (10, 11, maybe 12)
-Student Government (11, maybe 12)

Junior courseload:
IB History HL
IB Economics HL
IB Geography HL
IB Spanish SL
IB Literature SL
IB Biology SL (trying to drop next year)
IB Mathematics SL
AP US History (online)

Financial Matters:
I won’t be applying for any financial aid.

I would rank your chances as poor if you did RD but moderately good ED. What’s hard to know is the GPA rigor of your school. Your GPA is below average for Bowdoin, but perhaps it’s very high for your school and Bowdoin will know that from your school profile and the data of your current and previous peers who applied. Good SAT score. Your activities are fine but not exceptional for Bowdoin (and it’s peers). The key going into next fall is to elevate to leadership positions in one or more of them. These schools get tons of editor-in-chiefs who apply. And more importantly than the title, find an opportunity in your essay or supplemental answers or recs, to call out how you made a difference for one or more of these groups – your speech team or model UN group or school paper, etc. They are looking for people who weren’t just active but exceptional in some way.

Good luck.

Also, if you are male your odds are slightly better than if you are female (16% v 14%)- Bowdoin works hard to keep a 50:50 ratio, and more females apply than males…