Chances at Stanford? (+ other selective schools)

I am currently a senior, and I’ve recently been rethinking which schools I’m going to apply to (trying to add a bit more variety).

GPA: 4.0 UW - currently 4.523 weighted but taking a full schedule of AP equivalent classes this year. I took AP World freshman year and AP Psych sophomore year, and 4 last year (macro, calc, us history, English). This year taking IB ESS, Physics C, Literature, Calc BC, Government, Human Geography, and Micro. All other courses I’ve taken have been honors level (besides required classes that have no honors-option). I have a 1530 superscore SAT (740reading/790math) and planning on taking subject tests this October.

Outside of academics, I am on varsity soccer and track. I am a senior mentor (for freshman homerooms), participated in a few clubs (may try to gain leadership position in one), and volunteer with several organizations (homeless shelter and a community farm). Also received a fairly competitive/prestigious full scholarship to HS from a private local/statewide foundation.

Currently thinking of applying to Dartmouth, Bowdoin, CMU, Williams, and Pitt (safe school). I would like to possibly add a few to that list, and am wondering if it is worth applying to Stanford. May also add UC Berkeley or potentially Duke.

Thanks for any advice.

Do you play soccer or run at a level where you’d be a recruited athlete? Are you a URM or first generation college student? Any legacy?

If not, any chance you have any national level achievement, talent or accomplishment? Or, not a strong factor, but are you from a state that typically doesn’t have many applicants to selective schools (Mississippi or South Dakota would be examples), as that can help a tiny bit?

Unfortunately, no to most of those questions. I’m not really interested in pursuing athletics in college at a varsity level (maybe club). And no legacy or anything at any of the colleges I’m looking at.

Did forget to mention I’m in NHS but I’m sure just about all applicants are

You have obviously worked hard and have great grades and test scores, so the good news is that you will have options if you can put together an appealing app (don’t forget how important LoRs and essays are) and target the right colleges.

The ridiculously selective colleges like Stanford (and depending on what major/program you’re interested in CMU and Duke) are highly unlikely unless you can answer yes to one of those questions. There are just too many similar high achievers in the pool. Does that mean it’s impossible? No. Obviously someone is getting in. But when you’re looking at the already low admit rates, understand that most of those admitted had one of those hooks or tips, so the admit rate for the unhooked (CC sometimes calls them “average excellent”) are even lower than the admit rates for that college… which gets you into the highly unlikely territory.

It truly is getting surreal when even applicants with wonderful grades and scores are a longshot, but that’s the reality.