Chances for Stats Major (Transfer Student)

Hi everyone, if you could help me out with estimating my transfer chances, it’d be much appreciated.

Demographics: White male at a large state school’s honors program.

Intended Major: My current major is Mathematics, but only because my school doesn’t offer a statistics major. I’ll be applying to transfer to schools’ statistics programs.

Reason for Transferring: Current school was a good fit for original major, but became passionate about statistics (specifically sports analytics). Want to transfer because current school doesn’t do any research in sports analytics & is very weak for stats research/opportunities in general. I’ll have taken all the statistics courses it offers by the end of my sophomore year.

ACT: 34 Superscore (35 English & Reading, 34 Science, 32 Math (Should I retake for a higher math score?)

GPA: High School- 3.9 UW, 4.3 W.

College- 3.93. One issue with this: I got a B- in first-semester Calc III. Not sure how much of a negative impact that will have considering I’m applying to be a STEM major.

Coursework: Pretty standard math major coursework.

Awards: None really, besides a full-tuition scholarship.

Extracurriculars:

Founder/President of the school’s statistics club.

Research (Related to sports, but not really a focus on stats).

Treasurer of a club that goes to a local library and tutors kids weekly. Due to COVID-19, we are creating a free, online tutoring organization that will reach local kids, and I will be responsible for the STEM aspect of it.

Math/Stats Tutor (As a job, separate from the volunteering one above this).

Mentor to first-year students.

Online Programming Classes??? (Not sure if this counts as an EC with the current situation).

Essays: Above average but not amazing.

Schools: Penn (They have a very strong sports analytics program that I would LOVE to be involved in), Duke (Lots of statistics research opportunities that I’m interested in), Cornell (Same as Duke).

Suggestions: Additionally, if anyone knows of other schools that may be a good fit for me as a transfer applicant, or has any additional advice, I would be incredibly grateful!

Thank you, everyone!