Chances of Ivies + others

I’m a junior in high school and I am aiming for 4 of the 8 Ivies, MIT, Stanford, U Chicago, Georgetown, and a few of the small liberal arts schools in the northeast.

GPA: 4.0 (unweighted), 4.40 (weighted), but I may get a B+ in Calc BC this semester.
ACT: 36 (36 Reading, 36 Writing, 36 Math, 35 Science) w/ 10/12 on the essay
SAT: 1570 (800 Math, 770 English), took it previously and got 1470
3 AP Sophomore Year (Biology (4) Euro (4) and Seminar (3))
5 AP Junior Year (Chemistry (4 or 5), Calc BC (4 or 5), US History (4 or 5), Computer Science A (4 or 5), and French (3 or 4)
8 AP Senior Year (Physics 1 and 2, Statistics, Literature and Composition, Macro+Microeconomics, Music Theory (IS), World History (IS)

Extracurriculars:
Lead Trombone in Jazz Band (Grades 9-12)
Regional and All-State Honors for Trombone and Bass Trombone
Member and a potential leader of a student-run Improv Group
Musical (Ensemble, and Small Roles, Grades 9-12)
Assistant Stage Manager for The Crucible (Grade 11)
JV Tennis (Grades 9-10), Varsity Tennis (Grades 11-12)
Link Crew (Freshman Introduction, Grades 11-12)
Planned Parenthood Volunteer (Grades 11-12)
Freshman Soccer + JV Cross Country
Leader of Improv Club
Member of Math Team (A)
Will be a counselor in the summer
NHS, National French Honor Society
Awards for the American Mathematics Competition

Extra Information:
STEM Major, possible Pre-Med Track
White Male from upper-middle-class suburbs
Bisexual (Don’t know how much that will help)

Your stats are fine. ECs are centered around music, theater, and math. I would say you have a shot, but ivies are random. I got rejected from cornell but admitted to several other t20s. It’s all luck man.

FAQ: http://talk.qa.collegeconfidential.com/what-my-chances/1525399-if-you-are-asking-for-your-chances-to-ivies-and-other-top-schools.html#latest

The Ivies, Stanford, MIT, UChicago will be tough but you are the type of student who will get in.

Re: @GoBears2023 “It’s all luck man.” No it’s not. But that does not mean these “chance me” sites result in much useful information about one’s chances. The most selective schools use wholistic admissions so there are factors, even student record factors (as opposed to things like demographic- school imposed factors), that are missing here but which do impact on chances.

Re: Objectives. Obviously the OP’s grades and scores are very good. Does the student clear that hurdle? If I were an adcon I’d be ok with the scores but wonder about the AP test scores for sophomore year. 5’s from here on out are obviously simply aspirational at this point. If the student achieves the 5’s, I’d think the student had passed the objectives hurdle.

Re: ECs. The ECs listed here makes the student look like a great joiner but not necessarily more than that. They are all over the place. OP appears to dabble. That’s fine. Students should engage in the way they see fit and should be encouraged to participate in activities they find meaningful. But do Ivy League+ schools cull their applicant pool to select dabblers? Probably not. They’d probably rather select someone who already has a clear focus-either in STEM or in ARTS. (not to say they would object to a student being involved in both but only if there are significant achievements in at least one) If STEM, they’d probably like someone who didn’t just list being in Math League but could list accomplishments in math league or other competitions-say at a national levle. Same for AMC-with an expectation that the student scored high on AIME. If arts w/theatre & music-would look for some impressive roles, prizes in the arts, 1st chair for all State, Improv at a local theater, award at various competitions or strong reviews, etc.

If I were reading what I wrote when my own were applying I might have rolled my eyes and said something about how kids should be allowed to be kids and how expectations about absurd levels of achievement at such a young ago could be harmful. Well I still believe that. And luckily the majority of schools don’t look for such absurd levels of achievement. A tiny percent of the slots at American colleges are reserved for students with remarkably high levels of achievement. Those with their eye on those rare slots must offer up immense potential (usually evidenced by the things mentioned earlier). While a B-grade here or there won’t make a difference, lack of indices of exceptionalness will.

Also, @ damon30 Material at that link is incorrect if that link is intended as a message to everyone. This is wrong:

"If you are not a recruited athlete or a legacy applicant, your admission chances probably won’t be any better than the school’s overall admit rate.

As long as you understand that, you have realistic expectations."

Nah. Not so. Everyone does not have the same chance. That’s why you tend to see a pattern for students with seemingly high stats and loads of ECs, with some getting multiple offers by the most selective schools and others getting no offers from the most selective schools but getting a number of offers from a group of less selective, but still quite selective, schools. There are some key variables that set the two apart. And they are predictable by those who are very well acquainted with admissions even when people who are not in education might view both students as equally strong and even when both students are very strong.

@lostaccount This is interesting, but incomplete. It sounds like you are saying that there exist “key variables” that can be parsed in “chance me for Ivies” threads that would allow for a higher than the average admit rate chance. (Say, 25%, instead of 5%.) Since we are missing the essays and LORs (and, truth be told, the actual GPAs, SAT/ACT and AP exam scores), this is a powerful technique indeed. For my edification, please tell me more about these"key variables" and about how to recognize and apply them.