@PAMom21. Thanks for the encouragement.
I just ran the numbers again, using both the 70-80 data and the 75-80 data. The 70-80 data seemed more accurate last year (based on the previous 5 years), but this year the 75-80 data seems a bit more stable. Regardless, the 75-80 data predicts 216.1, and the 70-80 data 216.9, so it could very well be 216 again. I really don’t see 218.
For what it’s worth, the PA data doesn’t seem as predictive if you go back more than 6 years. I ran too many models to count last year, and decided that the recent data and the 70-80 numbers were all you really needed to consider. This makes sense given the relatively high PA cut. However, this is all just playing around on some level. My son for example qualified this past year with a 68, so that 65-70 data is not totally useless. However, most kids that qualify will land in those 70-80 categories. Note too you can get 216 with 80/80/56! But most kids will be pretty high across the board in all three categories.
A more immediately gratifying data point is that PA has never been more than 15 points higher than the commendation level, so using that as 202 tops out any predictions at 217 as well.
Nice to see someone else’s predictions so I can see how mine compare. Thanks @PAMom21
My two models both predict a 216 for PA this year. They also would have predicted a 216 last year. I only use the 75-80 data and my R2 values have typically been higher for those than the 70-80 data. I did not test 70-80 for PA, though.
I agree that I can only go back to the 2008 test data. If I go back further everything falls apart. I notice that the reports in 2007 and before are different in that the number of test takers vary per section whereas the number is reported constant for all 3 sections in 2008 and later.
Thanks.
I’m just using a very basic linear regression based on totals in all categories combined. I don’t have a horse in it this year though, and am only recycling old lists I gathered last year. My R2 values this year flipped from last year (as to which was higher). The higher R2 number (this year 75-80) gives the 216, for what that’s worth. Time will tell!
@PAMom21 Would you please calculate California cutoff using your method? Thank you.
Sorry, I only have data for PA, which I obsessed over last year. Adding one more data point was easy.
My method is essentially the same as @PAMom21 method except that I make an adjustment for the population growth. That isn’t important for PA as the state’s population is pretty stable. It is more important for TX and CA. I have previously made a CA prediction. Look at post #237 and it looks like 222 is the most likely.
@WRUAustin Thank you so much. Someone predicted 224 for California, and I got 223 so I got a little panicky.
That’s a good score. Congrats. I think you should be ok. I don’t see 224 as likely. 223 is possible, but you would be ok then.
I know what our state is one of the lowest (we are in Mississippi), but I can’t help but “dream” that my daughter’s score of 205 will somehow make the SF cut. Last year it was a 207. If it drops one point we will cry (some more). SF here is the difference in a full-ride and no ride…although she will get other “rides” based on her ACT/SAT/GPA. Still it would have been so nice to just say, “it’s paid for.” With 202 being the commended scholar cut score, I don’t have much hope. 
Can anyone calculate the cutoff score for IL? Here is the list of numbers you may need:
2014-2015 / 417 / 1,202 / 441 / 38,922/
2013-2014 / 512 / 1,296 / 365 / 38,629/ 215
2012-2013 / 624 / 844 / 594 / 38,483/ 216
2011-2012 / 419 / 718 / 426 / 39,473/ 213
2010-2011 / 539 / 1,099 / 534 / 42,485/ 216
2009-2010 / 428 / 1,179 / 372 / 46,058/ 214
2008-2009 / 475 / 777 / 390 / 48,481/ 214
Nice compilation of data. That made it easy. Looks like IL will most likely be 215. Perhaps 216, but most likely 215. I will post all of them that I have done thus far. I would consider the Revised Method to be the most accurate for most states (better R2).
First Method, Revised Method**
State,2015 prediction, 2015 actual, 2016 Prediction,2015P,2015A,2016P
MD ,220.7 ,221,220.8,220.6,221,220.5
TN ,212.4 ,212,212.7,212.2,212,212.1
TX ,217.6 ,218,217.5,217.9,218,218.0
CA ,221.8 ,222,221.9,222.4, 222,222.4
DE ,216.2 ,215,216.0,216.3,215,215.9
NY ,219.4 ,218,219.0,218.7,218,218.6
FL ,211.8 ,211,212.3,211.6,211,212.1
NJ ,222.5 ,224,222.3,223.2,224,223.3
NJ* ,223.1,224,222.7,224.4,224,224.0
MA ,223.1 ,223,222.8,223.0,223,223.1
OH ,212.9 ,213,214.2,212.3,213,213.3
WA ,217.5 ,219,217.6,218.9,219,218.4
IN ,213.6 ,212,212.7,213.1,212,212.4
IL ,216.3 ,215,215.4,215.8,215,215.1
In general, the data points to little change from last year.
So it looks like a 215 in Indiana should be a safe score. I really hope so. Now to find a suitable college close by with a full ride would be great!
The only two automatic tuition full ride’s that I’m aware of for NMF in Indiana are Grace College and University of Evansville. Maybe one of those would be a fit depending on what your are looking for in a college and how “close” you want to be.
@Hope2achieve – Why the “close by” requirement?
I really don’t want her 12 hours away but would somehow manage. Just hope she can make a finalist. She is leading toward nursing, possibly nurse practitioner or a physician.
Well, S14 is 3,000 miles away, but it’s not 12 hours away. We’re both less than an hour from a major airport, and it’s a four hour flight. It sounds like your daughter is a likely NMF, and she will have lots of options. Sticking my nose where it may not belong, I’m not sure why you would want to limit her options from a geographic standpoint unless there’s some extenuating circumstance(s). She’s obviously a sharp cookie. She’ll do fine away from home. Might want to go with the best ‘fit’ combined with the best merit scholarship even if it’s not ‘close by’.
She will go where she wants! I would like her close to home. Less that 6 hours would be great but I want her where she is most comfortable and happy. I think it will be harder on me than her.
@Hope2achieve I get that. My parents are sad that I am going 10+ hrs away, but are willing to let me go because it is a great NMF scholarship and the college has a great program in what I want. I’m scared of going away, but as Carrie Underwood says,
“It’s sad but sometimes
moving on with the rest of your life
starts with goodbye.”
My boys are both NMF, and both have received scholarship offers for full tuition from University of AZ.