@hsmomof3 I’m from Idaho too. But public school. Can you let us know as soon as you find out about your kids! What scores did they get? And do you know if they will actually mail you information regarding the cutoff or just whether or not you qualified?
Thanks!
@WRUAustin Any predictions for Nevada? My daughter got 213.
Here is the data.
CR M W (75-80)
2014/ 33 90 47 8108
2013/ 35 64 31 8226
2012/ 60 64 59 8421
2011/ 39 40 40 7871
2010/ 35 73 47 7886
2009/ 34 59 21 7106
2008/ 16 35 23 7468
(70-74)
2014/ 169 139 150
2013/ 88 164 112
2012/ 160 120 110
2011/ 97 143 53
2010/ 96 107 48
2009/ 130 124 107
2008/ 89 78 69
Last year on CC - homeschool folks just got a “principal” letter notifying them that their student was a NMSF. They did not get any information about the cutoff… unless it could be deduced as more scores from particular states came in. Sometimes that information came from non-homeschooled (ie: these three kids got in with a 216, 218, and 221, but this kid with a 215 wasn’t called down to the office with the rest of us).
I ran the numbers for Nevada and the data is somewhere between 210 and 211. I think your daughter is in good shape with a 213.
You can refer back to previous years’ discussions, but what we’ve done in the past is post a list of all the states with each new data point, adding your own new info. For example, if a kid makes it in PA with a 215, someone can post that PA is at most, 215. The next day, a poster might lower that to 214. Sadly at some point, another will say they did not make it at 213, and the list gets fine tuned to perfection in due time. It’s also helpful to add where your info came from. Maybe “made it with 215, heard from principal…friend with 212 did not”, or the like. Let me find a link to the start of our discussion last year.
Okay, here’s last year’s first with dates, and if you flip to the next page, you’ll see the state list that was started (copied from the previous year). Yes, it’s a lot of info and the list gets reposted many times, but it seems to be the tired and true best way to keep the data up to date. Feel free to do whatever works for this year’s anxious families!!!
http://talk.collegeconfidential.com/discussion/comment/17567554/#Comment_17567554
@dapark62 Yes of course! Our son received a 213. Not sure what will be mailed out.
Here is the site with all historic data for all states.
DS got an application fee waiver from U Tulsa. Totally reading everything into this thing that could be nothing. 
Yes, it was nothing. The fee waiver is on their Facebook page…available to all until October 15th. LOL!
Any guess for the cutoff for Mississippi this year?
See post #333. I used the search feature to find that.
Do many schools offer application fee waivers to NMSF or NMF kids? My D16 got her first really useful one from Fordham (via email and she’s planning to visit and apply). Tonight she said she was going to send one off to ASU because it’s a super easy application and a school she’s fairly interested in too.
I didn’t want her to yet because I’m not certain of her actual interest level … or if she might end up with an application fee waiver later – particularly if she makes NMF. Is it pretty common for schools to waive these fees?
Fingers crossed in Minnesota. I don’t think I saw a prediction for our state, but she’s one point above last year’s cut-off, which was 215 and the highest it’s ever been for Minn.
@gettingschooled i’m a 218er in TX…very worried… 
it would suck to be just a point off from this!!
@mightve crossing fingers with you mate. I AM SCARED! I got 218 in TX and the wait is killing me. I guess we don’t have much longer to find out.
You predicted 207.4. Have you predicted in year’s past? Were you relatively close? He has a 209. Crossing fingers
@ci1718 WRUAustin is a parent of a potential NMSF. I think this is her(?) first time to do this as far as I know. Others have done it in the past. She is doing a regression model using several years of data to predict the cut off. Over the course of the thread she has refined it to account for state population and to account for students who score high on math, but potentially not the other sections. Regression models are statistical guesses based on historical trends. She is back testing her model by predicting last year’s score. She will usually tell you if the model did a good job or a not as good job for last year so you can have an idea how well it might do this year. I think she refined Mississippi in #337. She’ll correct me if I got this wrong.
There are no guarantees unfortunately. This is just a way for anxious people to pass the time until they are put out of their misery one way or another.
Sounds like your son is in the same boat as several of our kiddos- hovering right at or above the previous cut offs.
Welcome to our party! You have a lot of company here. I only check the board 25 times a day right now. By next week, I’ll be checking it 50 times a day.
Do I have a good chance of getting NMSF with 226 in CA?
" I only check the board 25 times a day right now."
LOL That describes a lot of people…including me!
As far as I know, we have not hit 225 nationally anywhere so far.
YES