215 worked for Tennessee. Told by principal.
Updating TN on recent reports:
AL=? (post #?, per GC/NMSC/HSL (homeschool letter)/other)
AK=?
AZ=?
AR=?
CA= <=223 (post #726) letter to principal
CO=?
CT=?
DE=?
DC=?
FL= >=214 (post #851)
GA=?
HI=?
ID= <=213 (post #811) HSL
IL=?
IN= <=218 (post #772) letter to school
IA=?
KS=?
KY=<=213 (post #822)
LA= >209 (post #825)
ME=?
MD=?
MA=?
MI= <= 213 (post 648 HSL)
MN= <=217 (post #844)
MS= <=209 (post #843)
MO=?
MT=?
NE=?
NV=?
NH=?
NJ=?
NM=?
NY= <= 219 (post #714 student report)
NC=?
ND=?
OH=?
OK=208 (post #750) cutoff informed by principal
OR=?
PA =?
RI=?
SC=?
SD=?
TN= <=215 (post #860)
TX=?
UT=<=210, possibly 209 (post #823)
VT=?
VA=?
WA=?
WV=?
WI=?
WY=?
Commended (national cutoff) = 202?
My best calculation for NY was 218.5. I had said that I thought 218 and 219 were equally likely. Nice to see (for me at least) that the calculation was decent.
I’m not going to repost the numbers because some were calculated with varying levels of data (state enrollment numbers for instance). Search for an obscure state abbreviation and you should find it.
@paddlerk thanks for ruining my day… Lol jk. Thanks for letting us know.
Missed it by two points
woohoo!! Thank you @grasshopper25 !! Celebrating with you!! 
@WRUAustin , looks like your estimates are pretty accurate. Hoping for the best for WA at 218!
How was Michigan predicted at 209.4? The percentiles of people who got 75-80 and 70-75s on each section rose by a couple points on each subject? Shouldn’t that indicate a higher cutoff? By the way, appreciate the predictions.
son just made it in florida with a 214:)
still no news from nj huh? from what we know right now, all states have been increasing from last year. NJ’s all time high is 224 which it has maintained for 2 years in a row. what are the chances of this going down? (I got a 223!)
This is where I exit, stage left. Congrats to all the semis, and condolences to all those that missed it. See you all in other threads!
The numbers for 75-80 are less for this year than last year. I have only used 75-80 because they tended to correlate better with the cutoff numbers. I do realize that the 70-74 numbers may have more relevance as the cutoff score decreases. MI is not a high scoring state, nor a low one.
I do think the correlations will work best for higher scoring more populous states. I’m hoping so, at least. Good luck.
Daughter in Dallas, Texas told me 217 does not make the cut. She had 66 commended out of her class of 540. All the kids that made the cut were called in to the office and given a certificate. She said another kid told her the cutoff was 219 but she doesn’t know if that is true. All she knows is that she did not make it with a 217.
Okay…so we are in Texas…my son should be commended at 210–in the post above it states the national cutoff for commended is potentially 202…not sure where that number comes from, but when will he be notified? Same as qualifiers?
Thanks @dallas14 Sorry your daughter did not make it. What an awesome school she goes to!
Glad to finally hear mail is indeed running in Texas at least.
Our school published a list of commended students in April with 66 names saying they were commended and I think I remember 203 being the cutoff but my memory isn’t great. 210 is going to make the commended cut but that isn’t worth much.
Thanks so much for posting. Nice to hear from Texas. Sorry that your daughter (and the other 217’s) didn’t make it. Still an excellent score.
Thanks also for the hearsay 219 information as that is what my son made.
In previous year’s commended went out two weeks later but it sounds like a couple of schools have notified commended today so maybe they changed the process.
@fbhsmom the reason that there are different state cut offs is to spread the number of NMSF across the country. It’s based on the number of students that took the PSAT in your state. If you have a higher % that just means more students took the test, other states have much high cut off and more NMFS because of larger populations.
commended students will be mailed a letter to their home later this month. 202 is the national cut off- so anyone in the US who scored that number but did not make semi finalist in their state will be commended
anybody from oh? getting nervous with the higher scores.