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<p>I see you didn’t account for the sharpshooting Harrison Barnes being eligible next year too…oh wait.</p>
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<p>Are you joking? K-State dominated Texas, particularly during the first half and again during the latter part of the second half. The only brief run that Texas had was at the beginning of the second half and they never got ahead by more than two points the entire game. It’s not like this was a huge upset. K-State was ranked tenth going in and they’ve been at or near the top of the RPI poll for most of the season.</p>
<p>FWIW, both of Pomeroy and Sagarin (predictor) have Duke as the #1 team in the country. They predict a ~10 point Duke win in Chapel Hill and a ~20 point win at Duke.</p>
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Well the predictor is only half of the sagarin ratings. Kansas is #1 in the sagarin ratings.</p>
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Looks like you spoke too soon…[Duke</a> Blue Devils vs. North Carolina State Wolfpack - Recap - January 20, 2010 - ESPN](<a href=“Men's College Basketball Teams, Scores, Stats, News, Standings, Rumors”>NC State 88-74 Duke (Jan 20, 2010) Game Recap - ESPN)</p>
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<p>The Pure Points rating (predictor) is Sagarin’s real rating though. He only started producing the ELO Chess after the BCS eliminated margin of victory from the computer formulas. I’m not sure why he publishes an overall rating, or why he started the ELO Chess for college basketball, but the Predictor rating is the best indicator of the actual quality of the team. I guess the overall rating is more likely to follow the more record-based human poll.</p>
<p>Either way, I presume Duke will drop a certain amount with the sizable loss tonight. North Carolina will too, though the computers already had low opinions of them.</p>
<p>How the hell in UNC ranked? </p>
<p>Duke just got blown out by NC State. The ACC is wide open this year. Who would have thought Virginia would be the team to beat? LOL</p>
<p>Admittedly, there is something good to be said about teams that are clutch in close games (in which case their W-L record and ELO will look better than the margin-of-victory predictor)</p>
<p>Sagarin has spent decades refining his ratings and I would only guess that the overall rating is what he considers the “best” evaluation (note that the overall rating is not quite a simple averaging of the ELO and Predictor ratings - there’s some nontrivial “synthesis”)</p>
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<p>Better question is, how the hell is UConn ranked? Same record as UNC, minus the big wins and with losses to worse teams. And, they are ranked higher than UNC. Go figure.</p>
<p>Duke may be the better team on Tobacco Road this year (I guess it is better for the rivalry if Duke is allowed to win every once in a while), but strange things happen in this rivalry.</p>
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Maybe because they play in the toughest conference in college basketball and that their losses have come from quality teams like Kentucky, Georgetown, and Duke. Not teams like Charleston.</p>
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<p>Are you kidding me? Before last week, UNC lost to Kentucky, Texas, Syracuse, and Charleston. Kentucky, Texas, and Syracuse all wound up in the top 5. UNC also beat Ohio State and Michigan State. </p>
<p>Meanwhile, UConn lost to Duke, Kentucky, unranked Cincinnati, Georgetown, Pitt, and unranked Michigan. Their best win was over William & Mary, at home.</p>
<p>But please, continue with the delusions if they make you feel better. Bottom line is, UNC should have been ranked higher than UConn in the latest poll.</p>
<p>You listed Texas and Syracuse twice.</p>
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<p>The “.” after Charleston denotes the end of the sentence.</p>
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UNC plays in a much weaker conference than the Huskies do, and they’re currently in second to last place with a dismal record of 1-3. UConn plays in the most competitive conference in college basketball and their record is 3-3. On top of that, UNC lost to unranked Wake Forest and unranked Charleston.
The bottom line is that the overrated Tar Heels shouldn’t even be ranked with their disappointing performances. Arguing against a team that’s only ranked two places higher than UNC might make you feel better but it won’t change the fact that UNC is having a disappointing season.</p>
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<p>Alright-you’re not getting it.</p>
<p>Lets look at the wins and losses before last Monday-when the latest poll came out.</p>
<p>UNC Losses
Syracuse (top 5 team)
Kentucky (top 5 team)
Texas (top 5 team)
Charleston
Clemson (top 25 team)
Georgia Tech</p>
<p>UNC Quality Wins
Ohio State (15)
Michigan State (9)
Virginia Tech</p>
<p>UConn Losses
Duke (top 10 team)
Kentucky (top 5 team)
Cincinnati (unranked)
Georgetown (top 25 team)
Pittsburgh (top 25 team)
Michigan (unranked)</p>
<p>UConn Quality Wins
LSU (unranked)
Notre Dame (unranked)
William and Mary (unranked)
i.e. UConn has yet to beat a ranked team.</p>
<p>So, bottom line is, before the most recent polls came out, UConn had no wins against ranked teams, one quality win (two at best), and losses to two unranked teams. UNC, on the other hand, beat a top 10 team, a top 15 team, and lost 3 games to top 5 teams.</p>
<p>Those are the facts, and the facts point in UNC’s favor.</p>
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<p>Well, certainly not after the Wake loss. UNC still deserved to be ranked higher than UConn, though.</p>
<p>Cuse, I don’t think you understand what I’m trying to say. I think the only reason that UConn is ranked higher than UNC is that they play in a much tougher conference and they have a tougher schedule than UNC. The top team in the ACC is Virginia. The Top 5 teams in the Big East are all in the Top 15. In the preseason UNC was rated as a Top 10, even Top 5 team, and the fact they that have drastically underperformed is a reason why they are ranked where they are now. When UNC lost to Syracuse, Syracuse wasn’t even ranked by many polls. Now they’re one of the best teams in the country. UConn has underperformed as well, but not to the extent that UNC has. </p>
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The fact that UConn is 3-3 in the toughest conference in college basketball and the fact that UNC is 1-3 in a much weaker conference doesn’t point into UNC’s favor. It’s not just [the</a> polls](<a href=“2023-24 Men's College Basketball Rankings - ESPN”>2023-24 Men's College Basketball Rankings - ESPN) that have UConn ranked higher than UNC. Look at [the</a> RPI](<a href=“http://www.realtimerpi.com/rpi_Men.html]the”>http://www.realtimerpi.com/rpi_Men.html), [the</a> Pomeroy ratings](<a href=“http://kenpom.com/rate.php]the”>http://kenpom.com/rate.php), [the</a> Sagarin Ratings](<a href=“http://www.usatoday.com/sports/sagarin/bkt0910.htm]the”>http://www.usatoday.com/sports/sagarin/bkt0910.htm), even the [ESPN</a> Power Rankings](<a href=“http://sports.espn.go.com/ncb/powerranking]ESPN”>http://sports.espn.go.com/ncb/powerranking) and you’ll see that UConn is ranked higher than UNC in every instance. I don’t know the full methodology of college basketball rankings, but I do know they aren’t just determined by how many wins you have against ranked opponents. In that case, UNC wins. But when you look at the strength of conference and the strength of schedule, UConn clearly wins. Those are the facts. </p>
<p>In either case, I don’t see either team being ranked next week. I don’t see UConn winning against Texas and the fact that UNC lost against Wake Forest just takes them out of the Top 25.</p>
<p>Also, Syracuse wasn’t a Top 5 team when they beat UNC, they were No. 24.</p>
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<p>UConn’s schedule, up until Monday when the most recent poll came out, has been much easier than UNC’s. UNC played 7 ranked teams, including 3 of the top 5. UConn played 4 ranked teams, and lost to all of them.</p>
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<p>Agreed.</p>
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<p>UConn lost to every good team it played. UNC was at least able to beat Michigan State and Ohio State, two VERY good teams.</p>
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<p>As has been shown, UNC had the tougher schedule and has performed much better than UConn to boot. </p>
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<p>Syracuse was certainly a top 5 team-nobody knew it at the time, though. Probably the most underrated team this year at the start of the season.</p>
<p>Like I said, just because UNC has beaten more ranked opponents doesn’t mean that it should be ranked higher than UConn. By then end of the season, UConn will have played much better teams than UNC has, and the fact that the Big East is better than the ACC will only help UConn in terms of rankings.</p>
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<p>Even if this is true, it shouldn’t be reflected in the rankings. Rankings are supposed to be about the strength of any given team at the time of voting, not the projected future strength.</p>
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But they’re not. And even if they were, it would depend on how you define strength. It seems that your definition is which team beats more ranked opponents.</p>