<p>Possible, but it’s also possible that neither case happens. If Texas loses:</p>
<p>case 1: TCU or Cincy in title, Orange bowl gets first at large pick and chooses the other of Cincy/TCU. Fiesta can’t pick Texas, so they have to choose between Boise, Iowa, Penn State.</p>
<p>case 2: Cincy in title, Orange picks Texas, Fiesta picks TCU over Boise, Iowa, Penn State</p>
<p>case 3: TCU in title, Orange picks Texas, Fiesta picks between Cincy/Boise, my guess is Cincy.</p>
<p>So really, if Texas loses, then Boise State better hope that the Orange Bowl doesn’t pick Texas if they want to play in the Fiesta Bowl.</p>
<p>Still, they might want to be passed over. Instead of playing Nebraska (10-3) in the Fiesta, they’ll be the only undefeated left when the Sugar Bowl picks to play against the SEC runner up (12-1)</p>