In post #33 I said that I wished I knew how well HS GPA predicts freshman retention and graduation rate. Well, I was able to do those calculations based on 312 schools. HS GPA and freshman retention were correlated +.74. SATs are more closely correlated with retention than is HS GPA. The correlation between HS GPA and graduation rate was +.82. HS GPA is a little better at predicting graduation rate than is SAT. Overall, I would say that SAT and HS GPA can be about equally important in determining reach, match, safety whereas acceptance rates are not very useful.
There are a lot of posts right now asking for help in determining reach, match, and safety schools so I decided to bump this thread. SATs are very helpful in determining reach, match, and safety.
But SAT scores alone can be very misleading for many schools whose admission processes deemphasize them, or for students with weaker high school records.
Maybe you missed this little nugget in your quote of Princeton Review’s definitions:
Low admission rates create a great deal of uncertainty. Accordingly, low admission rate schools cannot be safeties and often should not be considered matches either. Ignoring low admission rates in making lists of reaches, matches, and safeties would be unwise, to say the least.