OP- my point is that you don’t know what options he has until early April which is FAR too late to have a transparent discussion about finances.
Princeton- I have heard from family members and acquaintances that their final fin aid package is within $100 of what their NPC predicts it will be (assuming you don’t have a complicated non-custodial parent situation or own a small business). So there is zero financial risk applying to Princeton- run the calculator, and you can either afford it or you can’t. BUT you don’t know if your kid is getting in until April.
BU- their top merit awards can move the college from “it’s a stretch” to “Wow, what a generous offer”. And with a high stats kid your HS Naviance data might show you that NOBODY with your kids stats gets rejected from BU, assuming they show appropriate love and interest. So very low risk from an admissions perspective. But you won’t hear about merit aid until late March.
“I think it is pretty clear to him”- what is clear to him? That you are prepared to pay 45K per year regardless of where he goes? That you are prepared to pay 60k per year for one of the following 8 universities but only 45K for the following 12 universities, and only 20K per year for these five schools? It seems like this is what you’re talking about. If so- don’t let him do the math (he won’t get it right) and don’t let him get invested and show the love in a college which you aren’t prepared to pay for.
The trick of all of this is that you just don’t know what options he has until a few weeks prior to when a decision needs to be made. That’s the thing. So kicking off the process with unrealistic schools (not that he can’t get in- but that he is likely to get in thinking you will pay for it if you won’t) is what leads to trouble.
I can point to about a dozen kids in my community who ended up with Plan Z (when Plan A, B, or C didn’t work out due to finances). To a kid the difference between your out of pocket cost of 30K or 50K can be bridged with magical thinking. If you can swing the 30 but not the 50 you need to put your cards on the table.