It fascinates me to look at how people are “feeling” about the rollout in their states and compare that with the actual data of how many people are getting shots and how much of their doses different states have used. MA is doing great. NJ is getting more into arms than NY. CA is doing better than AZ. In general, smaller states have been doing better than larger, especially if they have a large population on government health programs (ie Tribal or military). There’s a lot of frustration due to different eligibility rates by state and even by county or city in some places. There’s a lot of frustration because there isn’t a central place to search for/get appointments. Vaccinefinder and Vaccinespotter are among many trying to fill that gap. There hasn’t been enough vaccine to meet demand in most places.
Here in Oregon, the major vaccine site in Portland works on a “register and we will invite you make an appointment when you are eligible and there’s an opening” system. Yesterday there was a glitch and 11,000 people not eligible yet were sent invitations to make appointments. They are being honored. The Consolidated Tribes of Grand Ronde were given doses in excess of their membership needs by a few thousand. So they are sharing them with the Portland NBA team. Initially, Oregon wanted to prioritize the BIPOC community but lawyers told them that wouldn’t fly, so there are numerous agencies working at reaching folks at risk and without resources. Sometimes they get abused. We try again.
This is not a clean process anywhere – not where it’s been more open and not where it’s been more strictly tiered. It’s messy. But I think the hunger games aspect is beginning to abate. J&J is shipping out a lot of vaccines next week. Our pharmacies got double the allotment this week than they have been getting. I’m beginning to believe the experts who said the supply will exceed demand in late April.
Both AZ and CA are quite close to the national average in % fully vaccinated (14.7%) and % with one dose (25.7%). So are most states. (percentages from the NPR link in the previous post)
Given that surveys show that more than have of the people want a vaccine as soon as possible, there is still a shortage.
It is likely that most people will see a rollout as a success or failure based on they themselves and people they know getting vaccinated easily or with difficulty or not at all able to. Since there is a shortage, there is rationing, and satisfaction with the rollout depends on whether one is a winner or loser in the rationing scheme.
Your numbers are not the same as the chart I was looking at, but I think that goes to show how quickly it is changing and how close together the states are in getting this done. NYT is showing CA at 13.5% fully 26.6% one dose and AZ at 14.8% fully and 25.8% one dose right now. So basically interchangeable imho. Whatever I was looking at earlier had CA ahead in both.
And believe me, I want all states to do well especially CA. I recently went furniture shopping with my S who is prepping for his return to the Bay Area. Go California!
I think success or failure can’t yet be determined. Right now we are limited by supply. That is going to change. Then success will be getting the hesitant folks, the folks with limited access to technology and transportation, those on the margins in various ways vaccinated. Alaska was an early leader, so I was surprised to see they are only at 31.9 for at least one dose. There are a bunch of states closing in on that 30% with at least one dose. It’s getting as close as we can to 70% in the next few months that matters.
Our county waitlist has dropped to 2 weeks now… they are currently scheduling those who signed up March 10th and are accepting most essential workers and those with underlying health issues. You can usually schedule an appointment with a few days of them contacting you . It is dropping fast so until they open up new categories it will be pretty quick. I imagine it will slow down again when it is completely opened up.
As of this Wednesday, only 24.66% of WA residents initiated vaccinations. Appointments are available (and actually quite plentiful in some locations), but one cannot sign up even for the April dates when the person becomes officially eligible. I would call this a D-Plus performance. However, we did great in keeping Covid in check, with a solid B grade.
I find the chart you linked to confusing about the percentages, but I am guessing that the difference between that and the NPR chart is that one is showing a percentage of adults (or age 16+) vaccinated – while I can see from totals that the NPR is showing a percentage of total population (kids included). Since there is no approved vaccination for children, I do think it makes more sense to show percentages tied to the adult numbers.
On a macro level, greater success during the shortage would be that which rations and prioritizes the vaccine in a way that causes the greatest reduction in sickness (particularly long term after effect sickness) and death. However, determining whether the actual prioritization is/was better than a theoretical different prioritization for a given state may not always be easy to do. For example, after 65+ year old people are vaccinated, which causes greater reduction in sickness and death, vaccinating the next age group (50-64 or 55-64) or vaccinating those in high contact in-person occupations (people who work in grocery stores, restaurants, schools that want to reopen, etc. who could otherwise be spreaders)? Even within priority groups, how much effort should be made to get vaccine to the less connected (and likely more vulnerable to COVID-19) members of the priority group before adding the next priority group, in order to get the best reduction in sickness and death? Obviously, states had to guess on some of these based on incomplete information, and it may not be fully possible to determine which states guessed “correctly”.
Obviously, after vaccine general availability (meaning that anyone can get a vaccine at their convenience now or in a few days, without playing hunger games refreshing web sites, etc.), then success will be redefined in terms of getting past both vaccine reluctance and less-well-connectedness.
You are probably right about trying to sort out which prioritization system causes the greatest reduction in sickness and death being a measure of early success. But I doubt we can do that because of so many compounding variables including all the things we don’t know about how this virus spreads and why different surges happen and the impact of variants that haven’t been sequenced sufficiently along the way. Just in Oregon, because that’s what I know, we vaccinated educators before the elderly. But our case rates and death rates have been low in comparison to the rest of the US all along. So it might look like that system was good, but maybe it only worked okay for us because of the low case rate at the start of vaccinations. I happen to think it was a stupid idea given how few school have been open and the pushback to more reopening by the teachers’ unions (and I’ve been married to a union belonging teacher for 35 years, I’m sympathetic usually). We also had to vaccinate all prisoners in one of the first groups due to a lawsuit. But those two things that put off the oldest getting vaccinated don’t seem to have held up a dramatic drop in hospitalizations and deaths. Our ICU use rate is the lowest it has been since April 2020! (Doesn’t help if your elderly relative was exposed while waiting and is one of the 17 people in the state in the ICU now.) But I’m just not sure you can tease out that compared to states that started with elderly. I am sure social scientists will try to do it in the years to come, I just am not sure they will be able to see a clear trend. Yes people’s behavior matters but how much? There are so many factors at play.
I joined a vaccine hunter Facebook group recommended above (vaccine hunters/angels Massachusetts) and went in to CVS at midnight last night using their methods. I found an appointment for next Tuesday only 25 miles away from where I live. I think I am done. I won’t quite believe it until the first shot is in my arm but I’m feeling very relieved this morning.
I have a sinus infection after driving my mother home from the hospital and catching her cold. I talked with my doctor. I did not cancel but rescheduled for next week. There are no J and J shots in MA at the moment, so that is still a question: whether to wait. I feel a lot of pressure due to mother being on hospice. I know for sure I will have a reaction to the other two, but most likely not anaphylaxis.