Are there any statistics on this? I know the letter mentioned something “comparable to regular decision” but that seems very vague.
I would imagine that you have as much chance as anyone else in the regular applicant pool.
Unfortunately, an acceptance after a deferral is generally quite low, as the application has already been read and passed over. The chance of turning that into an acceptance is slim.
@ricck1:
EVERYONE who applies has a “slim” chance. Are you implying that a deferred ED applicant has LESS of a chance than the typical Regular Decision applicant? Do you have any data that supports that theory? Or is this just another one of your “good guesses” that you seem to post regularly?
If you’re guessing, please state that. There’s nothing wrong with giving your opinion and the basis of your argument. However declaring questionable items as facts without support is a great disservice to students and families and adds to confusion. Please desist. The forum moderators frown upon that activity.
Well, some other other competitive institutions that have statistics on this (MIT, for example) post significantly lower acceptance rates for deferred EA applicants (MIT’s was like 3%, about half of the chances of an RD applicant) so I would venture to guess that Harvard has similar stats. However, it wouldn’t be a bad idea to consider them independent, and just go with the regular rate. Deferred applicants do still get in.
I’d imagine that you’re put on equal ground with all other RD applicants. In that case, it wouldn’t be that you wouldn’t have a lower chance - it would be the same - but that the adcom had a reason for deferring certain people that might still apply to the RD round, resulting in a lower rate. Keep in mind that actual admissions rate isn’t the same as the probability that you will get in, since it’s not entirely chance-based.
I’m not sure, but it’d make sense that your application would basically be viewed the same way a normal RD app would be.