Demographics suggest applicants face the toughest competition in history.

College Search & Selection
1

<p>I came across the following table on the NCES website that projects an increase in high school 9-12 enrollment this fall and next fall. The rise in high school enrollment began in 1990 and peaks in 2007. After that, there is a small 5% steady decrease until 2013. I think this increase and then decrease is a baby boomer effect; the high school age children of the baby boomers peaks next year. </p>

<p>Does this mean college applicants face the toughest competition in history next year? What can applicants do to help themselves? Will colleges shrink when applicants decline in a few years or will colleges open the doors wider? Any other information or interpretations out there? Do you think these numbers specifically apply to the college-going sub-population of high school students?</p>

<p>In the following table, third column from left.
<a href="http://nces.ed.gov/programs/coe/2005/section1/table.asp?tableID=223%5B/url%5D"&gt;http://nces.ed.gov/programs/coe/2005/section1/table.asp?tableID=223&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p>

2

<p>Um, there are more than enough colleges in this country for those that want to go to college. There is an increase in applicant for the first tier schools, but those are not the only schools in the country, contrary to CC belief. Just in Boston:</p>

<p>For every Harvard and MIT, there are great schools are three other first tier schools:
-Tufts Univeristy
-Brandeis University
-Boston College</p>

<p>But theres a whole lot more:</p>

<p>-Boston University
-Northeastern University
-Suffolk University
-UMASS Boston</p>

<p>4 Great Womens Colleges:
-Wellesley College
-Simmons College
-Lesley College (now coed, but how many could tell that :p)
-Pine Manor College</p>

<p>2 respected business school:
-Bentley College
-Babson College</p>

<p>3 engineering schools:
-Franklin W. Olin College of Engineering
-Wentworth Institute of Technology (2nd best co-op in MA)
-Benjamin Franklin Institute of Technology</p>

<p>7 Excellent Schools for the Arts:
-New England Conservatory of Music
-Berklee College of Music,
-Emerson College
-Massachusetts College of Art
-The Boston Conservatory
-School of the Museum of Fine Arts
-The Boston Architectural Center</p>

<p>On top of that there's:
-Wheaton College
-Emanuel College
-Stonehill College
-Newbury College
-Lasell College
-Regis College
-Curry College
-Mount Ida College...okay, LOL, we'll forget about Mt. Ida</p>

3

<p>Now, those are just off the top of my head, there's probably more, I'm too lazy to think any longer, but anyone else care to count how many alternatives we have to Harvard and MIT? I didn't even add community and a wealth of mill degree schools (like Cambridge College) that would double this list. But also subtract, Tufts, BU, and BC, and realize on this board how many schools you miss out on. Everyone that wants Boston on this board picks BU or BC, (BC isn't in even in Boston contrary to the name), and perhaps they'll consider Northeastern. It's just like with NYC fads and everyone wants NYU. </p>

<p>I mean did anyone realize we have 7 liberal arts colleges in the Boston area? Without looking at the list, how many can you name?</p>

<p>I don't see an issue with running out of schools, I just see schools like Boston University, Boston College, and Northeastern University getting extremely selective, moreso than they should be. NYU, BU, and Northeastern are now three of the Top 5 most applied to schools in the country, what do you think is surging those numbers? I know BU is not sending out campaign a la WUSTL style.</p>

4

<p>Well, those are students that are enrolled. How many of them will not graduate? I suppose it could be the toughest year, but it is about 200 more than 2004. If top students are in the 1%, there can't be that much of a difference in admissions except for the usual increase in applicants at great schools. The college hopefuls at the Ivies and other great schools will increase anyway.</p>

5

<p>I had read elsewhere that the senior class in high school peaks in 2008. (I'd be happier if it is 2007!)</p>

6

<p>I think the numbers in the table represent thousands i.e. roughly 14 million, 15 million. It looks like there will be an increase of about
210, 000 high schoolers from 2005 to 2007. They are not all seniors. They won't all go to college. </p>

<p>My guess is that colleges will have to absorb about 20-30 thousand more freshmen next year and the year after. Then the numbers start to decline. I think the increase in applicants will affect marginal students at each college. </p>

<p>From 1990 to 2007, the increase will be about 32% which is pretty significant, but it has been spread over 17 years.</p>

7

<p>20,000-30,000 extra students...good, will send them all to UC Merced, problem solved ;)</p>

8

<p>LOL cre8tive1. perfect timing; maybe it was meant to be ;)</p>

9

<p>According to a book "Knocking on the College Door" (Dec 2003) published by ACT, College Board, and Western Interstate Commission For Higher Education (WICHE):</p>

<p>high school graduates
1991 2,480,622 actual
2006 3,042,003 projected
2009 3,195,259
2015 3,046,008</p>

<p>The number of US high school graduates in 2005-06 is expected to be about 560,000 more than in 1990-91, a 23% increase. Could this mean that there has been a 23% bump-down since 1990 from first choice to second choice college, second to third choice, and so on? Students rejected because of increasing competition have no way of knowing who they are, do they? </p>

<p>The number of high school graduates will reach a peak in 2008-09, increasing by an additional 153,000 in just 3 years. The number of high school graduates will then decline until 2014-15 when they will be about the same as 2005-06 levels. </p>

<p>The projections vary by state, race, and family income.</p>

<p>For example, for projections through 2014:</p>

<p>Most of the decline in high school graduates will occur in the northeast and midwest</p>

<p>HS graduates will decrease for families under $20,000 annual income
HS graduates will stay about the same for families with income range $20,000-$50,000 and $50,000-$100,000
HS graduates will increase for families with incomes over $100,000 </p>

<p>Caucasian, non-hispanic graduates are expected to decline by 208,000 between 2008 and 2014.
Black, non-hispanic will decline by 44,000 between 2009 and 2014
Hispanic will increase by 157,000 between 2006 and 2014
Asian will increase by 40,000 between 2006 and 2014
Native American will stay about the same</p>