http://collegeadmissions.testmasters.com/update-psat-scores-cut-national-merit-2016/
This table has been toted numerously for being accurate; it incorporates several of the techniques listed in the threads in this forum. Take a look, and state any disagreements, agreements, comments, or concerns.
Thanks; this is really helpful! What exactly does it mean by “sliding scale cutoff” though?
@sat225 that just means that they originally predicted the cutoffs to be approximately 12 points lower than last year on the reasoning that the new max of 228 is 12 points lower than the old max of 240. Prep Scholar used the same methodology back in September.
The numbers appear to be more reasonable than other estimates I have seen, but they seem to be a bit high. If you take Texas for instance, it is dropping 3 points from this year with 12 points being lopped off the scale. I think when the state tables come out in February, it will be help a little and allow more refinement of predictions.
Does anyone know whether more students in the US took the 2015 PSAT exam as I heard the numbers were much higher which would impact both the number of NMSF recipients and to the extent that the overall curve is flatter would decrease score required to achieve same?
Looking at a 219 in NJ so trying to figure out what it could mean.
College Board tweeted 2 hours ago that 4mm students now have access to their PSAT/NMSQT shoes - understand that some are freshman and sophomores, but it seems like junior year participation must be well over 1.5mm
@Chembiodad Please stop asking the same question in multiple threads. Just read the threads and you will start getting the analysis people are doing. The number of recipients never changes - its 15K. Check out the link at the top of this thread for Test masters prediction. That’s as close as you will get to a prediction since NO ONE KNOWS.
How come TN’s projected cutoff (214) is higher than last year’s (212)? @suzyQ7
@mkumar17 Read the article or ask the writer of that webpage (comments section):
http://collegeadmissions.testmasters.com/update-psat-scores-cut-national-merit-2016/
They explain their algorithm. Its an educated guess based on data available.
I got a 210… and this is the first projection article that has me not making it @suzyQ7
@suzyQ7
Are you sure that the number of recipients never changes?
NMSC hasn’t changed their description and explanation of the scholarship competition. Check it out:
"Semifinalists
In early September, about 16,000 students, or approximately one-third of the 50,000 high scorers, are notified that they have qualified as Semifinalists. To ensure that academically talented young people from all parts of the United States are included in this talent pool, Semifinalists are designated on a state-representational basis. They are the highest scoring entrants in each state. NMSC provides scholarship application materials to Semifinalists through their high schools. To be considered for a National Merit® Scholarship, Semifinalists must advance to Finalist standing in the competition by meeting high academic standards and all other requirements explained in the information provided to each Semifinalist. Click here to learn about requirements for becoming a Finalist in the 2016 National Merit Scholarship Program. (Adobe Acrobat Reader is required.)"
Here is a link to a 1989 article where there were 15,000 semi-finalists. More than 25 years later, there are 16,000 semi-finalists and 15,000 finalists. Considering the growth in population of high school students (1989 was Gen X-way less of us back then between the baby booms) and the increase in percentage of the population who goes to college, the competition has gotten far more competitive. I would not say never, but I would say- it isn’t likely to change and if it does, it won’t be much. That is why the cut offs have climbed year after year.
@appgodxoxo