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<p>For what it’s worth, looking at CC and in real life, Duke was the modal college at which Harvard waitlist-acceptees had placed their deposits. Not by much, mind you – the Harvard acceptees of which I am aware had a wide variety of alternate colleges. But Duke was #1.</p>
<p>To some extent, that’s quite rational. While Harvard may have a greater overlap with Stanford or Yale, Stanford and Yale are places that people choose over Harvard fairly frequently. It would not seem unlikely to suppose that someone accepted at Stanford and waitlisted at Harvard may have chosen not to accept a place on the Harvard waitlist. Some would accept, of course, but it wouldn’t surprise me if, by May 1, the overlap between the Harvard waitlist and other colleges’ acceptances was proportioned differently than the overlap between Harvard’s initial acceptances and those of other colleges, with the closest peer colleges (Princeton, Yale, Stanford, Brown, Columbia, MIT) less well represented, and the next micro-layer (Duke, Chicago, Penn, Cornell, etc.) more prominent.</p>