Failing precal how much will this hurt me

I got a D my first semester of precal and this semester is looking no better as I currently haven an F. I put in a lot of effort in this class but the results don’t pop up I would like to attend a UC school and was wondering how much this will hurt my application for failing to passboth semesters. I’m a junior and I can’t retake the class until my senior year it’s the only option I have

Sophomore year first semester finished with a 3.0 weighted (yeah I know low). Took ap euro finished with straight B’s and one C in algebra 2

Sophomore year second semester finished with around a 3.83 GPA All A’s and one B in algebra 2
Passed the ap euro exam

Junior year first semstester finished with a 3.3 including the D got in precal. Taking two ap classes Ap Lang and apush

Extracurriculars: cross country two years, asb student body two years, I work as a cook at a restaurant, two years, (I work only on weekends about 14-15 hours really hard exhausting job. The place gets busy) junior year I’m submitting a short story in a citywide competition as well as submitting a group project for History day LA competition.

Personal life. First generation Latino my parents only went to grade school in Central America. My dad is a factory worker my mom is a housekeeper I’m the first person in my family to graduate high school. Low income family that lives in south LA pretty bad neighborhood. There’s been a couple homicides around the area. I have to work and help save money so my mom can receive surgery that she really needs. She doesn’t have health insurance. I have to commute 22 miles (school and back) a day five times a week takes me about two hours to get home after school (I catch the bus) and other obstacles. I love history and writing

Haven’t taken SAT yet.

Since you will not be able to retake Pre-Calc until Senior year, your D and possibly F grade will be calculated into your UC/CSU GPA. If you receive a C- or higher grade 2nd semester, it will validate your D grade and your Pre-Calc course will be considered completed and acceptable as an a-g course requirement but the D grade is still factored into your GPA.

You need to calculate your UC GPA at the end of Junior year to see where you stand. You have a compelling story to tell in your essays and they will be taken into consideration. Without test scores and a definitive GPA is difficult to say how you will fare in the UC decisions. Intended major, HS course rigor and your personal insight essays will all be part of your application review including low income/first generation.

Here is the UC/CSU GPA calculator:

All the UC’s and Cal states will use the capped weight UC GPA. UCLA/UCB also uses the fully weighted UC GPA.

https://rogerhub.com/gpa-calculator-uc/

I will post some UC GPA admit stats and test ranges so you can gauge where you stand. I would suggest you look closely at the Cal States based on your posted GPA which seem much more realistic. Unfortunately the Cal states admit based on stats only, so no where to address your current circumstances. Best of luck.

Freshman admit rates for UC GPA of 3.00-3.39

UCB: 1.1%
UCLA: 0.9%
UCSD: 0.9%
UCSB: 1.4%
UCI: 3.1%
UCD: 4.1%
UCSC: 14.3%
UCR: 22.9%
UCM: 56.7%

Freshman admit rates for UC GPA of 3.40-3.79:

UCB: 1.8%
UCLA: 2.2%
UCSD: 7.2%
UCSB: 10.1%
UCI: 11.1%
UCD: 16.6%
UCSC: 43.8%
UCR: 63.3%
UCM: 88.7%

Freshman admit rates for UC GPA of 3.80-4.19:

UCB: 12.6%
UCLA: 11.7%
UCSD: 38.7%
UCSB: 53.6%
UCD: 56.5%
UCI: 52.1%
UCSC: 75.7%
UCR: 90.1%
UCM: 96.1%

25th - 75th percentiles for SAT:

UCB: 1280-1490

UCLA: 1280-1500
UCSD: 1250-1470
UCSB: 1210- 1450
UCD: 1190-1430
UCI: 1190-1420
UCSC: 1170-1380
UCR: 1090-1310
UCM: 1020-1230

25th - 75th percentiles for ACT:
UCB: 30-34
UCLA: 30-34
UCSD: 29-34
UCSB: 28-33
UCD: 26-32
UCI: 26-32
UCSC: 26-31
UCR: 23-30
UCM: 20-27

A 3.3ish GPA in grades 10 and 11 is going to make any UC a pretty unlikely target. Do not despair though, I will let you in on a little secret - most of the good colleges in CA aren’t UCs.

As long as you’ve got all the a-g boxes checked, a decent SAT/ACT and a 3.3 UC GPA will make most of the programs at all the CSUs except CP SLO and SDSU within reach,

Another route is to attend a CC then transfer to a UC,

Do your best, there are lots of paths to a quality college education. You will find the right one for you when the time comes.