<p>Many sincere posts about "chances" here and there come onto CC. I noted with some humor that a goodly number of replies to them are students themselves, who haven't been admitted anywhere. While their opinion is fine, I think if you're a rising HS senior or junior and state that John Doe's chances at X college based on his profile is "you've got about a 25% chance" or "you're screwed" should be couched by the fact that YOU yourself are in the midst of applications. Please allay the fears/worries of your fellow students by stating that it's your opinion based on what you've gathered to date.</p>
<p>Even if the chances are given by someone other than a HS student, it's still "your opinion based on what you've gathered to date." No one <em>knows</em>. Some people have simply seen a lot of people go through the college process. Some people may actually have no idea and are just agreeing with what others say. Some people may have actual admissions experience...but no matter what level of experience you have, no one has been in every admissions office, or has read this kid's actual application.</p>
<p>People who ask for chances on CC know who is giving them. I don't think every post neads a disclaimer. This is not scientific information, it's just to give students an idea about whether they're aiming in the right direction. Either to assuage their fears if they're clearly qualified, or to help give them a nudge toward some more realistic schools if they're not. Now, I know that miracles can happen, and I personally never recommend someone doesn't bother applying somewhere because it's out of reach. But to be honest, the average CCer has a better grasp on what is attainable than most students, many parents, and even some counselors.</p>
<p>Actually, I think it's better that CC "experts" are speaking in general terms rather than based on personal experience!
I hate when people base an entire argument on personal anecdotes, for example: "I had a 2300, salutatorian, 3 varsity captain and was rejected from Boston College"...Ok, that doesn't change someone else's chances with high stats.
So I actually prefer high school juniors/seniors with data from school websites, collegeboard, and admit rates, rather than new graduates armed with a whole bunch of anecdotes and hearsay and little empirical knowledge of the admissions process.</p>
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This is not scientific information, it's just to give students an idea about whether they're aiming in the right direction...to be honest, the average CCer has a better grasp on what is attainable than most students, many parents, and even some counselors
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<p>I agree. I do think saying things like "you have a 25%" chance is a little silly, because how does one come up with a percentage like that? But people on CC--even the high schoolers--generally do have a good sense of how to sort schools into reach/match/saftey catagories, which is what is really important. And sure, maybe one person will get into all of their reach schools and another into none, and there's no way for CC people to predict that. But hopefully by posting on CC the person who didn't get into any of their reaches will have learned to apply to good matches and safties too.</p>
<p>It's amazing how much misinformation these high school "experts" spread here. The worst part is they say it with such confidence that a less-informed/naive person believes them.</p>
<p>There are certainly members on CC who know more about the college admissions game than others. Hint: Most of them aren't high schoolers. Now, I'm not claiming to know all the inside secrets about college admissions; I don't. But I don't go around saying "colleges like to see this" or "colleges like to see that" unless I know for sure that what I'm saying is true. This is why I avoid many chances threads and such, except to correct the less-experienced when they are spreading misinformation</p>
<p>If you really want to know your chances, you should start by looking up the information posted by the colleges. CollegeBoard.com or the premium edition of US News online (which will be updated imminently) are the best places I've found for that.</p>
<p>Only if your stats really fall in the middle of the school's range could you then maybe field some opinions about your ECs etc.</p>
<p>It's just good to get a second opinion. Some people are too optimistic or pessimistic and need a reality check.
If you don't want to ask your friends [either because they don't know much or you're just really competitive], CC is the place to go for some pretty good chancing. Counselors sometimes just aren't very good [like mine].</p>
<p>Yes, it drives me crazy. Any post that says 'chance me back' should be disregarded.</p>
<p>Sure there are a lot of non experts online, but their age doesn't mean they must be completely uninformed. Frankly I'd much rather have the advice of my peers, who have thoroughly researched this sort of thing for themselves, than say, my mother, who feels she knows the college process since she went through it decades ago, but can't even turn on a computer.</p>
<p>Most of us don't proclaim ourselves experts and stop hating</p>