<p>I don’t like “safety” or “match” either. We called them likelies (for admissions, merit or both) and targets. Some of S1’s “targets” were very selective schools – but the idea of a target was a school where he had a reasonable shot of getting in AND he really liked it. Those are the schools where he really honed in on the essays and made it clear what he liked about the place and brought to the table. He went 4/4 among his target schools.</p>
<p>S1 did not have a school on his list that he had not visited. He visited 16, had ten on the list, applied to seven. He had excellent reasons for attending every single school on his list. EA was definitely his friend. He dropped three schools of his ten after getting excellent EA results. He probably could have dropped more.</p>
<p>S2 is taking a similar approach, only is casting a broader net among schools that are a bit more competitive for him. He has already tossed the pie-in-the-sky schools he visited, has no Ivies, and is instead focusing on mid-sized research universities and academically strong LACs with great programs in his major. D-III football would be nice, but he realizes his SAT scores will get him more attention than his 40-yd. time. He has had 28 schools on his list, has visited all but five (but we are working on that), and hopes to whittle the list to 10-12 (he is close on that score). Has talked to profs, department advisors, football coaches, has sat in on classes.</p>
<p>S2’s “no thanks” list looks like some kids’ dream lists. But that’s OK. He has specific criteria in mind and is not afraid to march to his own drummer.</p>
<p>Safeties are easy, it’s the matches that are tough.</p>
<p>
</p>
<p>Acceptance rates:</p>
<p>Boston U: 53%
Tulane: 27%
USC: 22%
GW: 37%</p>
<p>U Miami: 39%
CMU: 38% (was 28% last year, I believe)
Case Western: 73%
Emory: 27%
Rice: 23%</p>
<p>Interesting to hear JHS’s read on predictable admissions for these schools, but given the low admit rates, I’d never recommend them to anybody as a “true safety” if they are looking for one. Maybe they are likely admits, but they aren’t what I would call an iron-clad backup plan. I knew a top 10-15% student, was an AP Scholar with Distinction, had a 2300 SAT and didn’t get into CMU (OK, yes it was engineering, but still…)</p>
<p>I figure a safety is where a kid has a 98% chance of getting into, and even then should apply to two just in case one of them changes how it does admissions. Something more like Virginia Tech or James Madison. But, as JHS said, if you have an EA acceptance in your pocket, you don’t need a “true safety.”</p>
<p>The guide book I used said Tulane had a 45% admission rate - admittedly not over 50% but I’d think it was a good bet for a top student. Syracuse (51%) and American (51%) and St. Olaf (65%) look like possible safeties.</p>
<p>That said looking at our scattergrams - Tulane only looks safe at our school with 1500+ SATs, and top grades. (over 99 weighted in our system). Syracuse is more predictable and safer - all GPAs over 95 accepted, and nearly all SATs over 1300. American you are in with scores over 1280 or grades over 94.</p>
<p>Dad II - What we did might be considered risky by folks on CC. We never went below the list of top colleges on this site, except for the flagship that had a really great program in her area.</p>
<p>Perhaps we were foolish, but we targeted LACs that had a low percentage of minority students and were known mostly for their humanities. We figured that a latina science girl would be interesting to them.</p>
<p>There are LACs with lower percentages of minorities. Even though your son is asian and might have stiff competition on the east and west coast, there are good schools that would love to have him. Being a male would almost be as much of a boost as asian.</p>
<p>Good luck starting another year of searching. He’ll end up some where great.</p>
<p>Our mistake with our D1 was she didn’t like her safeties. She cried after she visited our IS school. Hind sight we probably didn’t have to use it as a safety for her. For D2 we are definitely going to look harder to find a few good safeties for her, even if it meant OS public. I think the key is a safety she would be happy to attend. When you are a good student, what safety would you be truly happy to attend?</p>
<p>To OP: A true safety includes the following and will be unique to your DS</p>
<ol>
<li>DS SAT1 should be > 75th percentile </li>
<li>School Acceptance rate > 40%</li>
<li>The DS high School’s acceptances with that same SAT1 and DS GPA and course strength should be > 90%</li>
</ol>
<p>If your school support Naviance, it will be very easy to identify true safeties. In our DD case the high school student with same GPA, course strength and SAT1 has 100% acceptance rate at UCSD. It is also 100% at UCB and UCLA but since UCB and UCLA acceptance rate is less than 30% it might not be right to consider those two as safeties.</p>
<p>If your DS high doesn’t provide weighted GPA then it might be hard to correlate the GPA to the acceptances.
There was a problem with this approach from year 2007 to 2008 as the number of applications grew unacceptably but going forward year 2008 and 2009 results should be conservative for many years.</p>
<p>As I said, S’s likely schools were by no means likely for other students. But that’s how scattergrams and other HS specific demographics were used to calculate individual risk. Even those schools with less than 25% admits typically has a range that is MORE likely than others. However, I admit that I was very concerned about how my son’s numbers (plus the rest) might match up and definitely shared a number of email exchanges with his GC with “Are we sure he’s not going to be suicidal at the end of this?” or “Are we sure we are allowing for choice?” And time and again, she assured me it would all work out fine (and yes, he had a good athletic resume but we always invested far more in the helmet since the muscle that was going to get him into college was his brain). And yes, it worked out better than fine. </p>
<p>We talk a lot about hooks on CC… and I just think artistic talent is as much a gift as academic prowess as is athletic acumen as is musical ability. On the other hand… Legacy is the gift of lucky sperm. And, PC or not, so is minority status. I just think that if you want a school to be a likely to accept you… you should have to bring something bigger to the table than your birth. Now… some URMs face and overcome incredible odds, obstacles and road blocks to achieve, some would boggle the imagination of even the most worldly at times. And that says something about their ingenuity, resilience and a million other things much larger than their URM status. But in this day and age I find no inherent difference between a white science girl being interesting and a latina science girl or even an asian science girl being interesting. There has to be something more, which I will only hope to assume is usually the case.</p>
<p>I agree with the criteria that the school must admit 50% or more of applicants, that you can afford to go there, and your stats are above the 75th percentile. </p>
<p>I’d add one more though–the school doesn’t admit a large percentage of its class through early decision or ED II. This usually isn’t an issue with large schools, but the overall admit rate can be misleading for “unhooked” applicants applying in the regular round to smaller schools which have early decision programs, particularly if they are “typical” applicants for that school.</p>
<p>Once you get below the top tier schools, you usually will find that in the aggregate, ED admits have lower stats than the overall pool. I’d hesitate to use a school with both ED and EDII as a safety if you are applying RD.</p>
<p>The most important criteria is the kids has to love the school & be happy to attend it. We were a bit irked with S because he had us pay an app fee for one school that he used as a safety that he REALLY didn’t want to attend & didn’t even send them the HS transcript (I did when I found they hadn’t received it by Spring Break). I loved it because it offered him a FULL-RIDE but he honestly had no interest in seeing or attending it but considered it the best of the full-rides he or I knew of.</p>
<p>He did get admitted to his “likely” school, where he’s finishing his junior year in EE with significant merit aid, so we’re happy. His sister only applied to one U as a transfer (considered a reach transfer for nearly all) & was admitted & is now attending, so we collectively dodged a bullet on that one.</p>
That seems like a big jump - maybe the Katrina affect is wearing off? It didn’t make a difference to us, but the year my son applied to RPI it made the list of 15 New Ivy’s in Newsweek and its acceptance rate went from about 65% to about 40%. I agree with modadunn that a school’s scattergrams can provide extremely useful information about a student’s chances. If your child’s stats are in a sea of green, you are probably safe.</p>
<p>Tulane used to be a good safety for top students at 45%. That admittance rate has been getting steadily lower. Last year the admit rate went down to 27% and this year is going to be another big drop in admittance after consecutive record application years. The problem with using a school like Tulane (or many of the others above) is that just because you are likely to be admitted, does not mean you’ll be likely to get any money to help you attend. Tulane, with all costs factored in, runs around $50,000 a year. Also, 45% was a direct post-Katrina number. I think it was in the mid 30’s or so in the years directly before Katrina. I know in the late 90’s it was in the low 30’s for admittance. Those numbers change wildly at most schools over the years for a wide variety of reasons. I personally believe that every student should at least apply to one in-state university. That way you can safely guarantee that they’ll have a place to go and it won’t be a place where they then have to figure out how to finance the safety school. Almost all employers don’t look negatively on attending state schools as cost is almost always the reason.</p>
<p>Our kid’s “safety” was his parents’ alma mater (which is ranked in USW&N’s top 80 universities) and where he has happily attended many football and basketball games. The school has rolling admissions, and the kid’s scores/honors made him eligible for a full-ride scholarship there. The kid fully planned to attend there, but the summer before his senior year, decided to also buy a couple “lottery tickets” by applying to a couple top five-ranked schools.</p>
<p>This kid would have been perfectly happy attending this safety school, but he is also tremendously happy at Harvard.</p>
<p>OP - Good question. The only thing I can add is “If your student doesn’t like the school, it shouldn’t be on his list.” Obviously that includes his asteroid option (love the analogy).</p>
<p>Here’s my two cents. Add a school that the kid likes something about and that he alone could afford with merit aid, a Stafford Loan, and work study. Search for a true financial safety as if the kid has to pay for it all himself. $50 in application fees is worth the peace of mind so that if the Asteroid hits he will have a place that he can afford to go.</p>
<p>There were recent posts by kids whose parents couldn’t or wouldn’t pay for any of the schools the kids were accepted to. Now the kids are scrambling for something affordable; both are high achievers, one an NMF.</p>
<p>While you are looking at colleges, it’s always good to search for the hidden gems rather than just skimming the top schools off of the many lists. Anyone can come up with the ivies and other well known schools as desirable destinations. It takes a lot more research to find a school that has some great programs, and special deals that just are not as well known. It can really open your horizons on what schools have to offer.</p>
<p>We discovered that a local school with pretty much an open enrollment has an outstanding premed preparation program for non pre med majors who want to get those courses, perhaps after graduating college because they want to apply to medical school. We have found some great engineering programs where the kids find high paying jobs with a near 100% employment upon graduation. There are schools that have some wonderful scholarships that are not as difficult to get as many merit awards at schools far better known. </p>
<p>We looked for such schools this time around with my college applicant.</p>
<p>Another thing to remember is that, for virtually all colleges except perhaps HYPS, SAT scores of admitted students are higher than the SAT scores of the freshman class. On our recent college tour one school (I forget which) had data on both. The scores of those admitted were 20 points higher on each section than the scores of the entering class. Clearly, the students with the highest scores had other choices and were less likely to attend. So shooting for the median SAT score is almost guaranteed to put you significantly lower than the average applicant offered admission. Another reason to use the 75th percentile as the criterion, especially for choosing the safety/asteroid schools.</p>
<p>All good advice here. Be sure to also show “some love” to the likely/safety. Go visit and sign any lists they have of who was there, this is obviously more important for smaller schools, and perhaps even go more than once if it is convenient to drive by. This is important to make sure one wants to go there and also to demonstrate interest to them.</p>
<p>Some schools will be sensitive to applicants with much higher stats than their averages and reject or waitlist them if they think the applicant is not serious about going there. On the plus side if you “show enough love” they may also decide to try to “throw” money at you to come.</p>
<p>As everyone else says, it has to be a college that your child would feel happy going to but it may just have some weaknesses compared to other more preferred choices. The goal of this “game” is to have a good spread of choice after all the results are in.</p>
Benetode is right, mathmom-- this info is way out of date. Last year Tulane had over 34,000 applications for a class of 1400. This year they had 40,000 applications. Their acceptance rate will probably drop to about 22-23% this year. What may make it a “safety” for strong student is the school’s desire to attract the kids with the quality academic caliber student (with top grades/SATs) with their attractive Fin Aid scholarships.</p>