I’m a rising senior. My Freshman grades were 3.62 and 3.80 for semesters one and two, respectively. My Sophomore year grades were 3.83 and 3.85. My junior year, I became a candidate for the IB Diploma (and even took extra courses) and got a 4.0 both semesters.
My cumulative unweighted GPA at this point is 3.85, and my weighted is a 4.03. I know that almost all T-20s, with the exception of Stanford, look at grades for every year, but also like to see an upward trend, which is evident in my grades. The IB Diploma is supposedly one of, if not the most rigorous curricula offered to high school students, and even with extra courses I got a 4.0.
The rest of my application, I believe, is very competitive. With strong ECs, essays, LORs, test scores, rigor of curriculum and junior grades, will my Freshman and Sophomore year grades put me at a large disadvantage to other students who had straight As for all of high school?
Schools other than Stanford also don’t look at freshman year, Princeton and Emory for example are ones I can think of. Of course, your upward trend is good, and your freshman and sophomore year GPAs aren’t even that bad. That being said, all T20 schools are super competitive. At a certain point its basically a lottery. If it came down to you and another student with an equally amazing application but who had a 4.0 all 4 years, they’ll probably choose the other student.
However, if it comes down to you and to a student with a similar GPA who doesn’t show that upwards trend, you’re better positioned.
While I don’t know that you are very competitive for colleges with acceptance rates of single digits, you are quite competitive for other reach colleges.
So, say, Stanford is unlikely, but not out of the realm of possibility. However, Cornell, UMichigan, WUSTL, or Amherst College could be good reaches.
Your GPA is in the range for which it is often the most difficult to figure out chances. Because it is within the range of GPAs which are accepted by even the most selective colleges, there are no colleges which are, essentially, “out of range”. However, because it is on the lower end of this range for many colleges, or the mid range, acceptance is much more dependent on factors like ECs or connections between your high school and colleges, etc.
That is why your GPA is the range for which Naviance is an important tool in figuring out even a half-way decent idea of which colleges are safeties, matches, or reaches.