Should I apply to as many as I can or just a few? I know it’s a crap shoot to a certain extent so I’m wondering if you can get “lucky”.
The apply broadly in hopes of getting lucky approach is sometimes called “shotgunning.” Search for the term here on CC and some threads will pop up that discuss the pros and cons.
Conventional wisdom is that the return on investment if you apply to a huge number of schools isn’t that great and you’d probably do better applying to fewer schools and spending more time on each application.
That said, there are exceptions to the rule who do get lucky.
I’d say go for it.
You would…
It’s not really a crapshoot, in the sense that it’s a complete game of chance. There are some guidelines. The tl;dr for this post is that I think the students who would benefit from applying to a lot (more than 5 elites) are the ones who actually are average applicants at elite colleges (the “hyper-stats” kids, the ones with a 2200+, 3.7+ UW, crazy ECs).
I think the students who may benefit from applying to several elite colleges are the ones whose profiles actually match those colleges. For those students, it is a little bit more a game of chance. At the very elite colleges, high test scores and GPAs are just the price of entry - after that it comes down to some ambiguous personal characteristics. The admissions officers are trying to put together a class and you never know where you’re going to fit what they’re looking for. Especially at places where the admit rate is something like 5-10%, they’re turning away thousands of students who are very well-qualified without clear reasons why. (To be clear, I’m referring to colleges that have less than around a 20-25% admissions rate. If the admit rate is above 25%, I think very high-stats students can be reasonably sure they’re going to get in.)
But for those students who miss the mark - who aren’t competitive candidates for the very top schools - they shouldn’t apply to too many. It’s kind of a waste of money, because the chances are so low that you’ll gain admission.
I’m not sure about the borderline students. Some people may say that those borderline students may be the ones who should apply to some ridiculous number trying to get lucky. I think their energies are better spent targeting some schools that are a good fit. A student who is borderline at an elite school with a 5-15% acceptance rate is probably a really good fit at an excellent school with a 30-40% admit rate (which is still a very selective college, in the grand scheme of things), and probably also competitive at schools with around a 15-25% acceptance rate. So I’d say throw 2-3 bones to the elites and then focus the rest of the app on a mix of schools in the other categories, not neglecting some matches and some safeties.
Post #4 THIS THIS THIS
(Although I think you meant to say “average matriculate” rather than applicant in the first paragraph.)
The first paragraph especially is dead-on - it’s not really “a crapshoot” at all, except in the sense that almost no one has a very high probability of admission. Candidates who match the profile for these schools have better odds, and those who are below the standard in one of more factors (GPA, scores, etc) have SIGNIFICANTLY lower odds. And for those below par applicants, the benefits of shotgunning are going to be very small.
Parchment studied acceptance chances at the most competitive schools and found what you would expect, more applications equals greater success, no surprise.
It is simple, the top 5% of students apply to the greatest number of schools. So if each student applies to 10 schools, the probability of acceptance is distributed over those ten schools. If they each apply to 15 same concept.
Your generation traded certainty for convenience.
It’s funny that you mentioned the top 5% of students…I’ve been collecting data on the top 20 schools for various research projects and anecdotally I noticed that those schools collectively represent about 1% of the seats for incoming freshman.
Essentially, the big problem (especially here at CC) is that the top 5% of students all want a seat at those schools, and there are only enough seats for 1/5th of them.
Parchment is a parlour game, nothing more, Their data is self reported from applicants with no validation. Students can lie, exaggerate, fail to complete the info fully, etc. I wouldn’t trust any of their analysis.
So basically if you have borderline stats or matching stats, the crapshoot is a solid approach.
I just hope that colleges will consider the December ACT, they say it is the latest accepted test date, yet with the new writing might take until after the deadlines for them to receive it. I hope this is an indication that they will still be okay with that…
Also, I hope the colleges that I have already sent my 31 to will consider my higher ACT and not make an admissions decision before they even get the higher one…
That’s the exact opposite of what I (and others) were saying in this thread.
I peeked at one of your chance me threads - you have 31 ACT and a 3.7 GPA. Your chances of getting into any particular Top 20 school are practically microscopic and almost ENTIRELY dependent on there being something else in your application being absolutely first rate (holistic factor - essay, whatever). The likely result of shotgunning these schools with those stats is not equal to the sum of the individual probabilities - taking 20 shots at a 1% chance does not yield a 20% of getting in somewhere, it is probably more like 2% or something like that.
On the other hand, your chances at landing a school in the next tier - say the schools ranked 21-50 are excellent.
Well above it is said that very selective colleges are turning away highly qualified candidates, so if you are highly qualified then you are likely to be turned away. Thus, wouldn’t it be better to apply to multiple highly selective colleges, so that you can be one of the highly qualified candidates that get accepted?
If you have a 36 and 4.0 and only apply to HYP, chances are you will get denied from all 3. If you apply to all the top 10s, you will probably get into at least one…
I don’t see the logic, if you have the time and money (who wouldn’t when talking about 4 years and a 240k education) then it is to your advantage to apply to as many as possible, if you are borderline-match
@cappex If you are a match, you have a better chance of shotgunning and hitting 1 out 10 top (ivy, MIT, Stanford, Duke) but if you are not a match (which you are not with a 31 ACT and 3.7 GPA) you pretty much have a miniscule chance at each - so its not worth wasting your time applying to more. Focus on the next tier and make the applications great. Applying to too many top schools with your stats will likely yield nothing except that you will weaken your app because there is not enough time to make all 10 of those apps PERFECT and still apply to reasonable schools too.
Read last years results threads for IVY.
No offense, but you aren’t a borderline match with the stats you’ve posted - even looking at the “easier schools” in the Top 20, you are a below average applicant.
And the thing you have to remember is that we are looking at the extreme right hand end of a normal distribution curve - a very small drop in terms of scores or grades or whatever puts you into a much larger pool of applicants. There are only 26k kids with 34 ACT or above, there are almost 120k with a 31 or above.
It’s your money and your time, if you want to shotgun the top 20, go ahead and give it a shot. You are still way more likely to end up at a schools in next tier. If I were you, I’d put more effort into trying to find the schools in that range that you will be happy at, but you are welcome to use your time and effort however you want.
@suzyQ7 @NickFlynn Uh that is very off-topic, but since you brought it up I’ll have you know that I took the December ACT and got between a 33-35.
and my rank is 8/450.
and good EC’s, plus I write good essays and already have 7 great ones written.
I just hope that colleges will consider the December ACT, they say it is the latest accepted test date, yet with the new writing might take until after the deadlines for them to receive it. I hope this is an indication that they will still be okay with that…
Also, I hope the colleges that you have already sent your lower score to will consider the higher ACT and not make an admissions decision before they even get the higher one…
Um, how do you know you got between a 33-35? You either have a score or you don’t.
If you did, obviously, that changes the odds significantly, and that’s a different story. I wrote the above based on the assumption I stated (31 ACT).
And I am not really applying to top 10, I am talking more of the Vandy/Emory/Duke/Rice/Northwestern/Wake Forest ranges
@NickFlynn I know, but what if they know about the 31? Will that make it pointless that I got a higher ACT?
No, I believe most schools evaluate you on your highest score, so an improvement into that range will help you.
@NickFlynn And i know this is getting off-topic, but for applications already submitted, would sending the new ACT around mid January be in time for them to make the decision off of that instead of the lower ACT?