@CaucAsianDad I had the same concern, that the PSAT practice was too easy. So, I think we will unfortunately have to sit back, wait, and see.
@rhandco Yeah, kind of I guess. I don’t think it’s penalizing anyone, but I get what you’re saying.
@CaucAsianDad I can’t take credit for the TX estimate. That came from an Austin area prep company (More Than A Teacher). DS thought the practice test was too easy too and worries that the cutouff is going to be higher.
@3scoutsmom Can you give me an estimate of what you think the cutoff will be for Maryland?
@chengallen You need to see this mate.
@mtrosemom , if you read the discussions we were just having in the posts above, we THINK that the chart you’ve linked to is completely flawed. From what we see, the cutoffs will be calculated based on 3 equal weighted sections of the PSAT vs the new scoring of the PSAT which is equal weights of 50% Math and 50% Reading/Writing. See post #1 for an illustration of that. Prepscholar needs to update their blog.
@mtrosemom Cutoffs will be in terms of selection index, not raw score. Selection index will be weighted 50% R/W and 50% M. That is the flaw I see in the chart. You will not be able to get directly from raw score to cutoff.
@YoohooAddict I was only reporting the prediction we got from our local test prep center - I wish I had a crystal ball but sadly I don’t, the best I can offer it to look at where MD was compared to Texas in past years on the old scores. My guess is that there will be less difference between the states scores because of the range is smaller (228 compared to 240) and that NM may be forced to look more closely at grades to get the exact numbers they want but that’s only a guess so please don’t take it as fact. The best advice I can give is try not to worry too much about it and do the very best you can on the test and keep your grades up.
I’ve tried to bring this to the attention of @chengallen. Actually I’m a big fan of PrepScholar, I really think it helped my D16 but leaving that blog post makes me question if they understand the new test at all. I hope he’s so busy rewriting the SAT material for his program that he just hasn’t got a chance to deal with it. It’s shame because I’m sure many will start to question the program’s credibility.
@3scoutsmom Ok Texas’ cutoff was 218; MD’s cutoff was 222, so it would be around the estimate of texas (210) maybe a 212 I guess.
19 Today at 2:33 pm @rhandco:
"Essentially writing becomes more important, so students who have trouble writing will be penalized."
@rhandco, @3scoutsmom - Sorry, how is writing more important in the new PSAT for NMS? From what I see the old PSAT equal weighted Reading, Writing, Math in the selection index:
Old PSAT:
“The PSAT currently has three sections: Critical Reading, Mathematics, and Writing. Each of the three sections has a possible score ranging from 20 to 80. The PSAT Score Report provides a score for each section, as well as a total exam score that is the sum of all three sections with a maximum score of 240.”
Isn’t that what we are saying- the new PSAT scores are going to be interpreted for the NMS selection index equal weight Reading/Writing/Math? How is writing more important then?
Yes you are right suzyQ7 the weighting for the PSAT for the NM for several years has been One Third Reading, One Third Writing, and One Third Math and this has also aligned with the total score. This year the Total Score will be 50% math and 50% reading and writing that aligns with the SAT.
When some of us, or at least me, learned that the total score would now be 50/50 weighting I thought that would give an equal advantage to the math kids but then I learned that the selection index score which for the first time in resent history will not align with the total score would be used. NM continues to give the advantage to kids who are stronger in English than kids that are stronger in Math.
What I’m most concerned with is that MANY kids don’t know about the “selection index” score and will be confused when someone with the same or lower total score makes the cut and they don’t.
@3scoutsmom Yea that’s what I was thinking, since I’m more of a Math person and less of an English person. So technically isn’t it a bit unfair? Can’t we do anything like to complain to NM to make it change it’s mind concerning these score conversions? Like, now I’m really worried about qualifying for NMS because I’m really bad at CR.
Thanks folks for the discussion and pinging me (I’ve been out of town). Sorry for the confusion - we’ve updated the article and score cutoffs. We jumped the gun on that article and I apologize for any frustration. @3scoutsmom is right here.
http://blog.prepscholar.com/national-merit-semifinalist.
To condense what’s been said already, here’s essentially what’s happening. The old PSAT was scored from 60-240 out of 3 sections, each scored from 20-80. This was both your PSAT score and your score used for NMS cutoffs, which was straightforward.
The new PSAT still has 3 Tests - Reading, Writing/Language, and Math (I’m going to capitalize terms that College Board uses since they use Test, Section, Total to mean specific things, which is confusing). Each has a Test Score from 8-38. Your National Merit Selection Index is the sum of these Test Scores, multiplied by 2. This means the NMSC Selection Index ranges from 48-228.
To work through an example:
Reading Test Score = 36
Writing Test Score = 34
Math Test Score = 30
NMSC Selection Index = (36 + 34 + 30) * 2 = 200
Reading + Writing Section Score = (36 + 34) * 10 = 700
Math Section Score = 30 * 20 = 600
Total Score = 700 + 600 = 1300
Here’s a sample score sheet
https://collegereadiness.collegeboard.org/pdf/sample-psat-nmsqt-score-report.pdf
Here’s the scoring sheet for the practice test:
https://collegereadiness.collegeboard.org/pdf/scoring-psat-nmsqt-practice-test-1.pdf
(In the second link they scale from raw score directly to Math Section Score so you’ll need to divide by 20 to get your Math Test Score.)
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How do you get predicted cutoff scores? The straightforward way is to simply deduct 12 from previous years’ cutoff scores. This is because the range is simply moving downward linearly, from 60-240 to 48-228. There is no scaling, so a deduction of 12 should be a decent prediction, if they keep the score distributions about the same.
There’s good reason to believe they will keep score distributions the same since it’s an important part of interpreting the score. They probably don’t want to change too many things about the test at once and make things harder for colleges.
But if they choose to change it, then the prediction becomes inaccurate. For example, if the College Board decides they want to thin out the top end of the scoring range (ie fewer percentage of people get 38, 37, 36 Test Scores), then the cutoff will be lower. They can do this by making the test harder. We can’t really predict this yet.
Above all I would encourage anyone worried about PSAT cutoffs to just aim for as high as they can. If it helps to have a target, take your state’s predicted score
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Addressing some questions:
@mathyone
Why is the NMSC using this selection index rather than the Total Score? I would bet that it’s to maintain continuity between the old and the new PSAT. For example, this will maintain the 1/3 contribution of each section, rather than collapsing reading + writing to be 1/2 as @suzyQ7 points out.
Even back in the pre-2005 version of the SAT that was scored out of 1600, the PSAT was scored out of 240. So they might not ever change NMSC cutoffs to the 1520 scale in this version of the PSAT.
@2muchquan , @3scoutsmom , @CaucAsianDad
About the issue of the test being too easy - this would only really become an issue if the test became so easy that a large percentage of students got the top of the raw score range (48, 47, 46). For example, if more than 1% of students maxed out the raw score on each of the three tests, then they wouldn’t be able to specify a cutoff score that selected fewer than 1% of students.
I don’t think this will be an issue because the PSAT/SAT really needs to differentiate skill at the upper end of the range, or else the test loses a lot of meaning (ie you don’t want 5% of students to get a full 1600 on the new SAT or they all look the same). Even if the test gets a little easier, you still need to be in the top 1%, and the score cutoff should make who that is pretty clear.
Unfortunately you can’t use percentage correct as a predictor of cutoff scores. The raw score → scaled score conversion differs from test to test, ie how easy or hard the test is.
The PSAT practice test gives one example score scale, but it can differ dramatically from the real PSAT administered this year. If the real PSAT is really really hard, then the raw score cutoff (synonymous with % correct) will be low. If it’s really easy, the raw score cutoff will be higher.
Wow, @chengallen you are predicting four points lower than our local test prep company, which I felt was already low. Only time will tell…
@chengallen Wait, I thought the selection indexes could only be even numbers according to @3scoutsmom . How come Maryland has a cutoff at 209 then?
Good point @YooHooAddict since the sum of three sections is multiplied by two, the index number has to be even!
@3scoutsmom I have another question. Say I got 730, 750, or any odd second digit number for my math score, wouldn’t dividing it by 20 result in a number with 0.5 added to it? So in that case would I just round upward?
Maybe? The dived by 20 was my work around the CB doesn’t fully explain how to get the math score but on the sample math score they do have a decimal point in the score box. All the scores I tried (very limited sample - my family) ended up with even numbers.
Oh ok well then maybe afterall the cutoffs could be odd if the math scores are decimal numbers.
Dividing by 20 for math can give you fractions, which in turn can give you an odd total selection index:
Example- Reading 32 x 2 = 64
Writing 36 x 2 = 72
Math 670 / 20 = 33.5 x 2 = 67
Selection index = 64 + 72 + 67 = 203 (an odd number!)
Exactly, @suzyQ7. Selection Index = (R + W + M) * 2 = R2 + W2 + M*2. This could be an even or odd number. Maybe they should have a PSAT scoring question on the PSAT.