I am only talking about pre-meds and only using what I’ve seen from the school where I work. Pre-meds need to get As from the start, so they can’t have “problems” adjusting to college level work due to a poor foundation, too many other attractive time commitments, or other typical freshman issues.
The best results I’ve seen have come from students who go to a school where they’re in the top 25% of other students both with GPA and SAT/ACT. I’ve wondered why this is so and come to the conclusion, based upon what I’ve heard back from students, that when they “fit” in the higher group they don’t feel overwhelmed in class. Colleges teach to the level they have coming in. Bio 101 is not the same class everywhere in depth. Some schools start with deeper content in that class and others save it for later classes, often designed for majors (check the tests for Bio 101 from various schools). Calc is similar in variation.
If a student goes to a deeper level class and “everyone” around them seems to “get it” while they don’t, they seem to internally feel they aren’t as smart as the others. It’s not necessarily true at all, esp if they just had a lower level of learning from their high school, but it’s their perception. A few will work hard to fill in the gaps and undoubtedly succeed, but it’s not the majority I’ve seen. Our school counsels accordingly. (I don’t work in the guidance office, but I’ve heard from students.)
When they start in that “everyone gets it” group, they can do just fine. Their foundation is equivalent to their peers (or better than some of their peers).
I’ve seen students with 1200 SAT scores do well and make it into med school (doing well as doctors too). The college they choose can make all the difference.
In the OP’s case, any college will work. They’ve demonstrated by their GPA and SAT (and more) that they are as competitive as other peers they will encounter as long as they put in the work required.
Getting a high college GPA while also getting all the ECs med schools are looking for is never easy at any college, but when a student mentally feels overwhelmed from the beginning of classes, it’s not helpful.
Conversely, a student with the OP’s stats could easily be bored at some lower level colleges. I’ve seen that too. But to see that they’d be heading to a college where the average ACT is in the low 20s with no Honors college/classes or very many peers with an ACT in the mid 30s. They still do well when they go there and can still get into med school, but the journey is not the same.
My guy’s peer from HS was in that last category having chosen his undergrad because it was free. Quite honestly he regretted it because similar opportunities to “do stuff” (like research) wasn’t there at the same level, nor was the commitment there from many students. He’s still a doctor though. Choosing where he went didn’t stop him from getting accepted to med school. Those overchallenging themselves tend to drop out of the pre-med path, sometimes by the end of freshman first semester.
YMMV
For any other path/major I haven’t seen much correlation between scores and success. Pre-med seems to be different because of the concentration needed on grades from the start.