I can’t say it’s universally true. For example, my daughter did EA at Miami and was deferred and so in that she was RD (although applied EA). She got in and the same merit as those who got in EA.
If you are chasing merit, it’s an entire different game. We were merit chasers and did not qualify for aid.
Our strategy was to ensure we had a school - one school that could hit our target. For my son, it was Alabama and Arizona - auto merit. For my daughter, it was - well - I don’t think any. She applied to Arizona. They don’t have EA - they have til May 1st so that’s easy as you know exactly what you’ll get b4 you apply!!!
But step two is - schools that have the potential to hit your target - so for us, the Miami of Ohio, Florida State (well it hit target even at full pay), U of SC and even schools like W&L - because it had the Johnson. All these schools wouldn’t make our pre defined price - but they had the chance to.
So any no merit aid school was out - sorry Cornell and Gtown.
And unless you are going to that auto merit, you need to apply wide.
And like you - no ED for us - because it wasn’t a question of affordability but rather - a desire to afford (or not).
As long as you apply to schools - where at least one can 100% get you to your budget # - then it’s ok.
What if L&C ran out of funds from earlier apps? A late applier may not be good for yield. Or may have gotten shot down at more selective schools and now is applying - so may not bring the best stats.
Schools pay for stats - and I think schools know their best shot is to be that early accepter.
I don’t know - it’s just opinion and yes many schools are discounting (calling it merit) but they know the consumer doesn’t see value at sticker price - a Denver, etc.
It’s an interesting topic - but I still believe EA is the way to go - but I don’t have evidence - and we all have to do what is best given our situations.
In our situation, it worked out. Not all schools met the price I prescribed but my daughter had choice. And my son had choice. In the end, both chose the cheapest schools - just by luck. But my daughter’s school wasn’t cheapest - but then after acceptance awarded her another $25K in endowed scholarships - and that’s another wrinkle one can’t really account for (up front)
Good luck.