<p>Last year, the Class of 2016 saw the lowest acceptance rates among the top college in history. It seemed that this class had some of the most successful, bright students ever. At my school, we even had a student who was so good, he was accepted to all the top colleges to which he applied. </p>
<p>However, I know this is a mere microcosm, but my class does not have that one group of students that clearly stand out above the last. However, if anything has supported my hypothesis, it would be the PSATs for this year. PSAT cutoffs for Nation Merit have decreased or stagnated at EVERY state in the union for 2013 as opposed to 2012.This may be because of a increase difficulty in the PSATs, but nothing about either test suggests that.</p>
<p>Also, I have heard some CCers support that hypothesis. Would anyone like to comment?</p>
<p>I think any kind of decrease in “smartness” (which I do not see, as my class is the best my school has ever had) will be offset by the general growing number of applicants and rates will continue to go down.</p>
<p>Teachers will tell you that, in the manner of the Chinese calendar, all classes have different personalities and strengths and weaknesses. :)</p>
<p>Even though I have a senior this year, I’d agree that this is not the most academic class I’ve ever seen. The current class of high school sophomores puts them to shame, IMHO, having taught both classes at top high schools.</p>
<p>That being said, will the competition get easier? No. There are still kids at the top, and they will still be kids who are accepted at prestigious universities. My D is a National Merit semi-finalist with scores above the state average, has a 4.0 unweighted average with 12 APs, near-perfect SATs, and a very solid list of ECs. Is she feeling confident? No. :)</p>
<p>GMR: regardless of each groups’ overall “smartness” when you discuss admissions rates, it’s a simple math equation: # acceptances/ # applications. Since the numerator stays relatively static but the denominator grows, the admit rate declines.</p>
<p>Why does the # applications rise? Common App usage, trend of students to apply to more and more, international apps, etc…</p>
<p>The admit rate has very little to do with any individual senior classes’ “smartness”</p>
<p>It seems mildly unrelated in that the PSAT is an isolated exercise.
The number of graduating seniors, the number of students taking the test, the scaling curve itself, and in particular, the NMSF cutoff, mix to create a somewhat consistent, but largely unpredictable, variable. </p>
<p>You may have noticed that one’s PSAT does not correspond very accurately with one’s SAT score. The difference can even be dramatic. I will use a friend of mine as an example. Their PSAT was 222, more than enough for NM, but their SAT is 2400. If they tested last cycle with the class of 2012’s spike in PSAT cutoffs, more than likely, they would have scored something like 225.</p>
<p>Descartez or m2ck may be able to comment more if you asked this on the PSAT forum. It is an interesting theory.</p>
<p>The opposite must have happened at my school, then. Last year’s seniors were…not exactly the best we’ve had. It was really embarrassing when they had only one National Merit Semifinalist out of a class of >700. This year there are 8, the most we’ve ever had.</p>
<p>I don’t think there is any correlation between PSAT and strength of applicant. My first child was commended only for National Merit but was two questions away from a perfect score on the SAT and all 5 subject tests were over 750 with a few 800s. He turned down Harvard after getting an academic likely in December for his first choice program. My second child wasn’t even close to being commended on the PSAT but scored fantastically on the ACT and the 2 Subject tests taken and was fought over by top LACs (chose one at the very top) and Dartmouth…</p>
<p>I’m not sure we had any national merit semi finalists last year, this year we have 4 (In a class of 370 or so). We’re definitely the more academic class. We’ve got multiple people looking at Ivy League schools this year, when last year the only person who went to a top school went to UChicago, and she was an extreme anomaly in that class.</p>
<p>More people apply to colleges <–> lower acceptance rates.</p>
<p>Especially with the Common App, UC App, and other online college applications. Because it’s now much easier to apply to 10 schools (if one wanted to), you’ll be seeing more applications but roughly the same number of acceptances.</p>
<p>(1990 was a local maximum; 1997 was a local minimum)</p>
<p>Add 18 years to those dates and we will see that the number of high school seniors now is shrinking slightly compared to the last few years. So this could mean a slight decrease in the number of students who may seek spaces in colleges. Of course, if the percentage of high school seniors seeking spaces in colleges increases, or the colleges reduce capacity (e.g. community colleges and state universities getting their budgets cut), then colleges may still get more competitive. However, for the super-selective colleges and merit scholarships people here like to talk about, those are less likely to be factors than the population numbers.</p>
<p>In any case, test scores are simply a factor in getting accepted and while there may be more students applying with slightly lower average scores, their ECs, essays, LORs, etc are necessarily any weaker.</p>