<p>One’s chances of acceptance do not increase that much by virtue of one being URM (I believe a study showed that being African-American, to take one example, gives one a +5% chance of acceptance at highly selective institutions). Take m y c h a n c e s . n e t with a grain of salt. </p>
<p>As well, precisely because your kids have 4.0’s and 36 ACTs doesn’t necessarily mean that they are superior to anyone else. If one looks at the data collegeboard publishes, there is a direct correlation between one’s income level and one’s SAT score (meaning that a high SAT score coming from a student in an affluent family is regarded as being less impressive than one coming from a student in a relatively poor family). As well, some schools simply do not prepare students as well for these standardized assessments which leads to a school’s average being considerably lower than not only the national average but most likely the average of your kids’ schools. As a result, on an absolute scale, your kids’ scores may be higher and more impressive, but once one considers a student in the context of his/her surrounding environment, a 2200 from a poor neighborhood is sometimes more impressive than a 2400 from an affluent neighborhood(they’re both in the top one percentile of scores anyways…It isn’t like there’s some considerable difference between a 2200 and a 2400 anyways). Since (on average) there are more URMs under the poverty level than Asians/whites, it seems logical, given the correlation between SAT scores and income level (and the aforementioned statement in this sentence), that the average URM (even the average URM at universities like Duke) would have lower SAT scores than the average white/Asian. When the difference is almost negligible, within range, (the Harvard Dean of Admissions says that a difference of 50-100 points on the SAT means nothing), and context are taken into account, there is not much of a difference between the SAT scores of URMs compared to those of white/Asian students. Remember, these things are only meant to be somewhat (and NOT wholly, various intangibles, grades/course rigor, and context MUST be taken into account in order for one to be able to paint the whole picture) representative of future academic potential and academic performance and that, on an absolute scale, they are absolute meaningless, while they are meaningful on a relative scale. They are attempting to figure out the ‘intrinsic’ person, or, basically, how the applicant would be and act if s/he were removed from his/her current environment and given the resources and environment of Duke. </p>
<p>One must also consider the fact that numbers are precisely numbers (and nothing more). They’re not necessarily indicative of much past a certain point and institutions such as Duke are beginning to realize this. While they still are rather important in weeding out strong applicants from weak ones, one should not feel any sense of superiority by virtue of the fact that one has gotten a score that is a few points higher than another person on the SAT/ACT. Each person that has received a likely letter seems as though s/he deserves one by virtue of things beyond their statistics and, while I thought I might be able to be selected as an AB Duke Finalist, I’m not enraged at Duke for not selecting me as a finalist. I’m an applicant to their university, and I am not entitled to anything from them by virtue of my past accomplishments (It is their university, after all. It would be a great honor if they would allow me to enroll there next year, but, again, it is not something that I am entitled to be able to do or have.). Since they’re given such a talented applicant pool, they have the ability to pick out their incoming class and diversity at a university is an institutional need (without it, it would somewhat negate the desirability of the university). As well, given the psychological fact that when one feels wanted by someone/thing, one is more inclined to be attracted to this person/thing (though one does not necessarily become attracted to the person/thing, there is simply a greater probability that one will - someone correct me on this if I’m wrong because I have a feeling that I am), then, since they send out likely letters to minority candidates that will ultimately be admitted, the minority candidates may feel more wanted by the university and more inclined to attend. Given this, they can assume that the yield of these candidates will be (at least somewhat) higher than that of the overall yield of accepted students and, therefore, can accept less of these candidates in order to fulfill the institutional need of diversity. Given that they have an ideal incoming freshmen class size and the fact that they are actually accepting less minority candidates to fulfill the institutional need of diversity (because their yield is higher) than if they didn’t send the likely letters and have the cultural activities/weekends, then they are actually increasing the chances of the unhooked candidate being admitted (and it also reduces the boost one gets in virtue of being a URM).</p>
<p>My logic may seem ambiguous on that point, so hopefully an example will suffice to prove my point. Assume that the yield without the likely letters was projected to be ~50% and that, hypothetically, they accepted 100 out of 1000 applicants, meaning that they hope that 50 out of the 100 will ultimately attend Duke. Assume, hypothetically, that, ideally, they want roughly 10% of the incoming class to be African American. Assume, again hypothetically, that the yield of African Americans that likely letters are sent to is roughly 60% while the yield of African Americans that likely letters are not sent to is roughly 50%. So, if likely letters are not sent to these candidates, then out of the 100 accepted students, in order to meet the institutional need, they will have to send 10 acceptance letters to African Americans (10% of those admitted). On the other hand, if they send likely letters to highly desirable African American candidates, they will only have to accept 8 or 9 of these students, meaning that they can accept more unhooked candidates (meaning that an unhooked candidate will have a greater chance of being admitted) and still have their ideal freshmen class.</p>
<p>As well, these are only LIKELY letters (that actually help enhance the chances that your kids get in. As another argument for it, I would highly doubt that they would send out likely letters if their yield was not higher for kids that received likely letters - and these kids, when at Duke, told them that the likely letter was a big factor in their coming to Duke not only because they felt wanted, but because they had more time to especially look at Duke AND ONLY DUKE because, well, Duke was the only one that told them that they were allowed to enroll next year). Your kids have not gotten rejected yet. In fact, they have a good chance at getting some good news come decision time given their academic accomplishments. As well, please do not feel as though you have some sense of entitlement and do not degrade the accomplishments of the people who are minorities that have received likely letters. I hate it when people on here degrade people who are URMs and claim that s/he only got admitted to a university because s/he was a minority. Surely they might have been admitted to fulfill an institutional need, but they wouldn’t have been admitted period if they weren’t outstanding candidates. They’re outstanding people who simply had something extra that they could add to the general environment of the university - just like the journalist, the violinist, the political activist, etc.). And, before you say that they didn’t earn or work for the thing they will add to the environment of the university (as well, they add much more than simply being URM’s on campus, otherwise they wouldn’t have gotten admitted!), remember that every talent one has is, to some extent, a contingency. It is not the violinist’s fault that s/he has not yet had his/her cut off in some freak accident, just as it is not the fault of the URM candidate that they were born a URM. Their situations are not ones that exist by logical and metaphysical necessity and neither can claim to be wholly responsible for their existences (one would, generally, arise as a different person if one were raised in a different environment). The situations are, to put it precisely, exactly the same. The only difference is that the people such as eric only conceive that one’s being a URM is inherently undeserved and unfair in the college admissions process but they never look at the roots of their beliefs and see that what initiated their beliefs against one issue can actually be used to contradict certain beliefs that they hold to be true. In other words, people such as eric come into the argument with an inherent subjective bias and therefore their reasoning gets skewed in favor of their presupposed conclusions.</p>
<p>To all those who received the minority likely letters (and to those that are AB Duke Semifinalists), be proud of yourselves. You are all extremely accomplished and extremely intelligent; you’re all going to do great things with yourselves if you continue in the same manner that you’ve conducted yourselves hitherto and don’t let anyone attempt to bring you down by telling you that you don’t truly deserve what you got because you’re an under-represented minority. I can wholeheartedly say that I am envious of you all and wish that I was even somewhat close to being as intelligent and accomplished as you all.</p>