<h1>14 Georgia lost handily to #1 LSU (42-10), no surprises there. They will drop below Michigan come tomorrow night.</h1>
<h1>13 Michigan State lost a nail-biter vs #15 Wisconsin and will also drop below Michigan.</h1>
<h1>6 Houston, ironically the team we were projected to play at the Sugar Bowl, has also supplied us with a boost to propel us into the top 14. Houston just lost 28-49 to #24 Mississippi State. Although 12-1, that lone loss will most probably drop them below Michigan.</h1>
<h1>3 Oklahoma State beat #10 Oklahoma 44-10, which should drop the Sooners below Michigan.</h1>
<h1>20 Clemson beat #5 Virginia Tech 38-10, which should drop the Hokies below Michigan.</h1>
<p>Interestingly enough, #17 Baylor beat #22 Texas handily, and that may be sufficient to propel them past Michigan in the BCS poll. I think this is unlikely because (1) Texas is a 7-6 team, unworthy of its lofty ranking, and (2) 3-losses teams like Baylor have too big a hurdle to overcome, particularly in human polls. </p>
<p>Once all the dust has settled, Michigan should be ranked anywhere between #11 and #13 in the BCS poll tomorrow.</p>
<p>The question is, which BCS Bowl will invite us and who will we play?</p>
<p>Michigan vs. Alabama in the Sugar Bowl is virtually guaranteed not to happen. It will not happen unless Alabama falls below No. 2 in the BCS which is not likely to happen. In the unlikely event that Oklahoma St. rose to No. 2, then the Sugar Bowl would still get the first pick and would likely take Alabama. The Fiesta Bowl would get the next two choices and if Michigan is eligible would likely take Michigan with one of those two choices before the Sugar Bowl got the next pick. The Orange gets the last pick (presumably the Big East champion).</p>
<p>In addition to Baylor moving ahead of Michigan, there is also potential for Clemson to move up. They looked very good yesterday. Also I think there is potential for the BCS bowl to select Sparty - Sparty looked good in the B1G championship game.</p>
<p>I think the most likely outcome is that Big Blue will be in the Sugar Bowl against either TCU, Boise St., Kansas St, V-Tech or Baylor. We will have to wait until tonight to find out.</p>
<p>res ipsa, I personally do not care who we play. However, based on my experience in 2006, I would have to say that Alabama’s chances at the Championship game are now seriously jeoperdized. They still have a good chance, but they are no longer a lock. For one thing, Alabama did not even win its own conference. That’s what cost Michigan dearly in 2006 and could prove lethal to Alabama’s chances now. Too many members of the press and coaches felt uneasy promoting Michigan for the championship game, despite entering the OSU game 11-0 and ranked #2 in the nation. They lost to then #1 OSU at OSU by 2 points merely hours after Bo Schembechler died. Despite all of that, Michigan was dropped to #4 in the polls. Oklahoma State may have lost to Iowa State, but they ended the season with an impressive 44-10 win over a top 10 Oklahoma team, sealing their outright Big 12 championship in such a shockingly unexpected and convincing way that they may just unseat Alabama.</p>
<p>As for where Michigan plays, I am fairly certain it will be the Sugar Bowl as the Fiesta Bowl will likely want Stanford.</p>
<p>I agree there is a chance that Okla St. may overtake Alabama and I hope they do. I am told Alabama is edging out Okla St. in polls but Okla St. has a computer advantage. Pundits are split on their opinions as to whom will end up #2. I think the BCS game should be between champions of two different conferences and think they made the right decision in 2006 not to take Michigan. </p>
<p>If Okla St. makes the championship game, I think a Michigan - Stanford matchup in the Fiesta Bowl is possible but the Tournament of Roses has a problem when a Big Ten team plays a Pac 12 team in a major bowl; they don’t want their bowl to be upstaged. I don’t know if there is a rule against it.</p>
<p>I care about the match up. A Michigan-Stanford match up would be an exciting match up. A game against Alabama could be interesting. A Michigan-Houston match up would not have been exciting.</p>
<p>We’re ranked 12th in the Coaches Poll. AP poll is irrelevant. Harris Poll is the other one that counts along with the computers. In all likelihood, we’re headed to New Orleans.</p>
<p>I saw the tweet about V-Tech. Nothing is confirmed until 8:15. It would be a nice treat for a team that got torn to shreads yesterday. It’s hard to sit and wait.</p>
<p>You need 8 teams to fill up the four BCS Bowls. </p>
<p>Below are the 6 locks because they won their BCS conference:
Oregon
Wisconsin
Clemson
West Virginia
Oklahoma State
LSU</p>
<p>LSU is obviously going to play in the BCS championship game. Oklahoma State may be joining LSU in the BCS championship game. As such there are three-four at-large berths. Those 3-4 candidates could be any of the following 6 teams (in order of likelyhood):</p>
<p>Alabama (assuming Oklahoma State leaps past them in the BCS rankings)
Stanford
Michigan
TCU
Virginia Tech
Kansas State
Boise State
Southern Mississippi</p>
<p>The pick orders were supposed to be Fiesta, Sugar then Orange. However, since Sugar lost their tie-in team, they got first pick instead. So the picking order was Sugar, Fiesta, Sugar, Orange.</p>
<p>With the first pick, Sugar took Michigan (duh… $$$$/ratings)
With the second pick, Fiesta was kind of in a bind. Their choices were WVU (auto bid but no tie-in), Stanford (auto-bid due to 3/4 rule) or Boise/Kansas State/Vtech. None are $/ratings generating, but Stanford would be the best pick out of the bunch because of Andrew Luck effect. They could at least try to be able to hype it up on that angle.</p>
<p>With the third pick, Sugar didnt have much choice left, it’s either West Virginia (big east champ) or Boise/Kansas State/Vtech. Vtech is clearly the best pick of the bunch to generate at least some $$/rating.</p>
<p>Then Orange is forced to take WVU due to the auto-bid.</p>
<p>It’s not like the bowls had alternative choices, the only teams Sugar can pick for its second team is one of Boise/Kansas State/Vtech/WVU.</p>
<p>Baylor was also an option which I thought could have been interesting with all of the RG3 talk. I’m sure their fans would have travelled to New Orleans. Oklahoma was also an option. After the Clemson blow-out, I was surprised anyone would have wanted V-Tech.</p>
<p>I am glad we landed a BCS Bowl. It was a just reward considering the great job Hoke did. The Sugar Bowl is the only major Bowl we ave never won. We beat Nebraska in the Fiesta Bowl back in 1985 and we beat Alabama in the Orange Bowl in 1999. </p>
<p>Virginia Tech may seem like a strange choice, but as bearcats points out, it was the most financially viable option. Besides, Virginia Tech is a legitimate top 15 team and has beaten every team it played this season except for Clemson. They went 11-2 in a decent conference, beat solid teams such as Miami and Georgia Tech, and I also like coach Beamer. Besides, this game has a nice ring to it; Hoke vs Hokies!</p>
<p>Did you guys even bother watching the BCS selection show? Every commentator was disgusted by the Vtech selection. The fact they and Michigan got in over Boise or Kansas State indicates money and attendance was more important to the bowl section committee. While Mich and Vtech are good teams, you’d have a hell of a time convincing the coaches, the AP, and non-ACC or big 10 fans that either Umich or Vtech was more deserving. Vtech got destroyed by the only ranked team in its schedule twice. The ACC is a poor conference. See last year when Stanford utterly destroyed Vtech (which was still somehow magically ahead of Stanford the last 2 weeks). Vtech is a joke. If Michigan doesn’t beat them handily, well…that doesn’t bode well</p>
<p>Blah, I am not sure why Kansas state is a more worthy choice than Michigan. KSU lost to Oklahoma 17-58. Michigan beat Nebraska (roughly equal to Oklahoma) 45-17. If you do not believe it, just look at how KSU did against Nebraska last year, losing to them 13-48 in Manhattan. In fact, I cannot remember the last time KSU beat Nebraska, but it was definitely before 2005.</p>
<p>I agree that Virginia Tech is overrated, but then again, one could make the same argument against BSU, which is virtually untested.</p>