My S22 was admitted athletic recruit. Had courses, extracurricular, summer program, test scores that you would expect of MIT applicant/admit.
Coach told him that typical MIT applicant has 7-8% chance of acceptance and recruited athlete has about 40% acceptance. So, much better than 7-8% but still only 40%.
I doubt S22 would have been admitted without coach support but still wasn’t a shoe in with coach support.
I hear you. My D22 was told 60% chance so how do you pass that up? So it is 40% or 60% or really still only 5% and these coaches will say whatever they want? As you know this was a brutal acceptance year and these “top” students saw many many rejections. Most (students we know with comparable stats) had the best chance in the ED1 or ED2 round or in SREA. The coach told my D22 she could not take that path with other colleges if she wanted his support. I think that was wrong. I know its a business but surely he must have known the chances were MUCH lower…
In our sport, I think 30%~40% of the recruited athletes were accepted between EA and RD. I am with you that I doubt S22 would have been admitted without coach support, although S22 had comparable stats as other MIT admits.