<p>
[quote]
NAPS starts w/ around 240 USNA hopefuls, but by USNA I-Day that number's closer to 200. (NAPS class of '07 has lost 12-15% of its members already, and Admin is just now starting academic review for borderline kids.) Also, it was my understanding that those 400+ or so w/ post-high school included NAPS and Foundation? And might there be double-counting in this calculation for URMs/females who are in the top-tier admitted and others who get NAPS/Foundation? So maybe the number's not quite as tiny as suggested?
[/quote]
</p>
<p>Your points are well taken-
NAPs is offered to about 240 each year.... the yield from that differs from year to year, with a near-final estimate coming around April when their files go before the admissions board.... nevertheless, the 240 have a seat in the class that is "theirs to lose".... some will.... which accounts for some last-minute appointments going out right up until I-Day. </p>
<p>It is unclear if the 400+ or so with post-high school studies are included in the numbers the admission board puts out.... my guess is that they might be, but then again USNA posts those numbers seperately.... as for females, while I know there were some in the foundation program (a small percentage- perhaps 30%???) I am not sure what the breakdown is for NAPs.... my guess is that is mirrors what is at the academy- in the 28% range- it would stand to reason the percentage runs about the same for all programs...</p>
<p>I can remember trying to crunch through these numbers over and over, trying to "calculate" the chances.... in our case, mostly out of desperation... too many coaches calling, all great guys, watching our son try to tiptoe through the questions while waiting and stalling and hoping for an answer from USNA.... and then I just stopped- cold turkey- because I realized he had done the very best he could have done- we could ask no more of him than he had given- (well, maybe a few more A's in english lit).....and when I realized it was no longer in our control, when I let the worry go and trusted in the system, somehow the waiting got so much easier. In the end it all worked out....perhaps not exactly as planned (he got an offer of foundation for USNA and not the direct appointment he had hoped for)....but then again, who is to say it was not intended to go that way from the get-go? The bottom line is that he had a seat in the upcoming class of 2010 that was "his to lose".... and we had faith that there was no way he was going to let that happen. That extra year paid off big-time for him.... in every way imaginable....</p>
<p>so the way I see it you have 2 choices: you can worry yourself sick over the numbers, crunch them till the cows come home, and still not understand with any certainty how they are factored, let alone what your chances are..... or you can let it go- concentrate on back up plans should things not go well (they won't for 500+ equally stellar kids)..... use the time to enjoy senior year-finish with great grades- have fun with friends- and leave some things to fate. </p>
<p>Again, each to his (or her) own!<br>
PS... if you do decide to continue the number crunching, the CC folks from last year highly recommended merlot and chocolate.... :) a toast...that the numbers are truely higher than they appear, that the odds are favorable, and that a fat letter arrives soon.....better yet, that the kids make it through to Thanksgiving next year, happy in their choice, no matter where that choice takes them! That is my litmus test!</p>