National Merit Cutoff Predictions Class of 2017

Never mind. I see that the testmasters prediction for commended is 210.

NOOOO every website is saying 219 SI for CA
if I had gotten 1 more writing question and math question right, I would’ve had a chance :(.

What would a 200 be SI percentile wise? 97% 98%? I’m trying to not believe test masters predictions lol

223 in DC. safe?

Interesting article from the Washington Post. It predicts lower SI scores. Hmmm

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/answer-sheet/wp/2016/01/09/scores-for-new-psat-are-finally-out-what-to-know-about-them-and-what-they-mean-for-redesigned-sat/

@mommieme The article doesn’t make sense to me, it says that the cutoff score will be lower because it’s out of 228, not 240, but in the next paragraph, it says the scores this year seem inflated based off of the concordance chart, which would imply a higher cutoff.

My guess is that you are probably about right.

Commended is going to be way below 210.

Not that it matters, because commended is literally worthless.

@Ketchup1 As best as I can tell, the DC cutoff, like the Boarding Schools, is always equal to the highest state score. I have a letter from one of the VPs at NMSC stating that we are treated in the same way. I’m pretty sure that 223 will exceed the highest state cutoff. I can’t imagine that it would go as high as 224 out of 228. But my kids are homeschoolers. What are you seeing in DC schools?

I understand that SI index cutoff information is expected to be provided to school GC depts. in the Spring - around April. If others learn what GC’s are getting as guidance, please share.

@CA1543 , in the past, ONLY the commended cutoff was sent to GC’s in April, and even then, it wasn’t the actual cut, but rather a list of names of students over the cut. The actual state cuts were not released until very last August into September, and again only as lists of students who made the cut.

@PAMom21 The GC supposedly received a spreadsheet with each student’s Selection Index Percentile which was not included in the student score report. That’s what CA1543 is referring to.

Ah, nice! Hopefully we can get access, LOL! Sorry for the confusion, but the limited April news probably bears repeating anyway. Correct percentiles would be really nice!!!

Anyone else have info to share from GC reports provided this year?

I’m curious @PAMom21
In the past, did CB give student S.I. percentile in the student report? Did it agree with “Understanding scores” percentile? So last year, if someone got 213, did it say 99% in score report in December?

I hadn’t really noted this before @payn4ward, but I pulled my son’s report the other day as part of this discussion, and realized his subject percentiles were all based on the previous year’s data. This makes sense given the statement in the “understanding scores” report, but I’d never given that as much thought in regard to our specific score sheet. It was a nice surprise because in my son’s case, his lower CR score went up a few percentiles.

My guess would be that the 213 last year would show the 98th, as that was where that score fell the previous year.

From my son’s guidance counselor: National score average this year is 1009. State average (NY) is 968. No data based on SI nor any spread data. Don’t know if this would further refine anyone’s analysis.

@payn4ward Yes, CB did give a percentile for SI. Ironically enough, my son scored a 212, which would have been the first 98th percentile score (213 was the last 99th percentile score). His report states “compares your performance with college bound JUNIORS.” His percentile for his SI is listed as 98.

hmm it was 213 last year: http://www.bernardsboe.com/UserFiles/Servers/Server_3096886/File/Jill%20Shadis/Ridge%20Counseling/Standardized%20Testing/Understanding%202014%20PSAT-NMSQT%20Scores.pdf

Someone saw a GC report that indicated 207 this year - at least I thought so - for the cut of Our GC is not seeing any percentiles at this point on their report of Sis.

Does anyone kmow what cutoffs may be for National Hispanic?