PS for @CA1543: The 1453 TS is not the average of all 601 Walton 11th graders, just the average for the top 100 scorers. The average for the remaining 501 students is below 1207 TS, probably even considerably.
@TallyMom2017 â thanks â I see on the US List - Walton is very high - if you take out fine arts schools - it would be 4th (not sure the US News list is the best). GA had 453 NMSFs in 2014 I wonder what the more typical/average schools are here: http://media.cmgdigital.com/shared/news/documents/2013/09/14/14_GA_Semifinalists-NatlMeritProgram.pdf
or here: http://internet.savannah.chatham.k12.ga.us/Lists/Announcements/Attachments/884/16%20GA%20Semifinalists-NatlMeritProgram.pdf This list shows some more of the higher level districts: https://k12.niche.com/rankings/public-school-districts/best-overall/s/georgia/ Not sure how helpful this is to analyze but there may be quite a number of NMSFs from schools that are not as high performing as Walton, Wheeler etc.
@TallyMom2017 thanks for the info & clarifications - posts 1079 & 1080.
@livingproof - I agree with you! if my daughter had 1 more correct in the R section, her SI would go from 212 to 214 bc 1 more point translates to 2 points in SI
http://collegeadmissions.testmasters.com/update-psat-scores-cut-national-merit-2016/
These guys revised their projection in the last few days for he commended cut off to be 210. They are reporting hearing about a lot of high scores too.
So when are state summary reports going to be released? Obviously the data is there and is already partially given out to educators.
Addressing the âWalton is a high achieving school, so we canât use them as an exampleâ stuff.
Thatâs not the point. Of course Walton is a good school. They turn out roughly 18 NMSF per year from a student population of 600. Thatâs good performance - 3% of their kids are in the top 1% of test takers. Kudos to them.
But thereâs lots of good schools here in Georgia. They produce NMSFs as well, and thereâs no indication that kids at those schools are getting dumber, or prepared any worse for the PSAT than the kids at Walton.
So, if you think there will be a cutoff which allows Walton, which had 16 last year, to produce 50+ NMSF -
What about Alpharetta high school? They had 32 NMSF last year. Will they have 88 this year?
What about Westminster high school? They had 33 NMSF last year. Will they have 91 this year?
What about Johnâs Creek high school? They had 28 NMSF last year. Will they have 77 this year?
What about Northview high school? They had 43 NMSF last year. Will they have 119 this year?
Thereâs only so many slots allocated to GA. The cutoff has to be high enough to make the numbers work.
Perhaps they will allocate more slots this year, then cut to get 15,000 SF by jacking up the âconfirming SATâ or not allowing any Câs or something to that effect. They always say approximately 16K out of 50,000 commended make it- maybe it will be 16,900. Would that bring the math closer @doyleb (NMS giving an extra 800 slots, say)?
@DoyleB - yes you are making good points of course and more data would be very helpful indeed. At Walton the mean/average is 1453 of the top 100 students - I donât think that translates necessarily into 50 NMSFs. A 1453 could be a range of SIâs - perhaps 215-219 or thereabouts? I am not sure what the lowest one is but a chart on this thread mapped many of them out I believe. Maybe GAâs cut off will end up the same (218) or even go up a little? Just seems a bit odd that the scoring scale went down from 240 to 228 & yet so many cut offs will be the same or higher. But many things seem to be pointing to such a result.
Here is the thing just because they give more slots for theCommended, NMSF and NMF does not mean that they will give more National Merit Scholarships. I would be more than happy just to make NMF for my student.
From my post #1070, I pointed out the problems with TS, SI, Percentile. Please, advise me another way to look at cut off.
I assume many posters here - are test takers, parents of test takers, or just interested ones in general.
I assume you all see the reports sent to test takers. What do you see, of course Total Scores, Percentile (national/user), EBRW, Math scores, NMSC SI.
.
For example for a test taker received a report (like myself)
1430 associates with 99%tile (nat/user) or top 1%, 1430 associates with NMSC SI 212
NOW LATER ON, CB says we were wrong (we got them from la la la land), now it should be 1480 (since we have Walton situation). Then we have
1480 associates with 99%tile (nat/user) or top 1%, 1480 associates with NMSC SI 222
I will sue their butt off. Or a bunch of lawyers will sue CB for me at no charge for false information posted to public
Yes, I am aware conflicting stories about TS, SI, and %tile. CB can not afford that since they are in business for at least 50 years since CB reputation would be at stake,
CB does have real data. None of us can access to. Yes, it is fun to estimate cut off based on on certain speculations. But too much of it, would turn you against yourself, angry at others if they do not agree with yours and etc⊠for just trying to prove that you are more right.
Hey, more right does not mean right on. You got to believe the number sent to you by CB
My child has taken the 2015 PSAT as one of maybe twelve juniors at her high school (out of over 500 juniors). All 10th graders at her school took the test by state mandate. My impression is that a) the test was easier than the prior year and truly aligned to Common Core which has been taught since 9th grade in our district, b) cut-offs might just stay the same or go up a little, and c) it would make sense to name 17,000 or one percent of the junior test-takers as NMSF but keep the slots for NM.
But back to Walton, @CA1543 and @DoyleB: My very limited statistical understanding is that you cannot take an outlier school like Walton and extrapolate from there to apply results to a general Cobb County or Georgia or even national population. Walton has 41.9 percent of students with a Gifted EP. All other academic stats are also off the charts. We are talking 99 percent reading, math and science outcomes at state level. I have not looked up NAEP or PISA samples but they probably fall into the same range.
If you take away the top-100 scorers with their high average, the general mean of the remaining 501 students drops a lot lower than the entire mean of 601 students because the mean isnât pulled up anymore. Of course, not all 100 top-scorers can be NMSF and thus they might up the SI by a point or two. However, I would expect that a school like Walton would do even better (by mean or past numbers of NMSF), because it is an elite public prep school for the college-bound. These students are superb test-takers in general, especially if you look at their AP outcomes and state testing.
The value in Waltonâs data set is that they are large and predictable. The first 18 scores or so that come in will likely be NMSF qualifying, and the rest will not. By seeing what ballpark that range is in (low 200s? high 210s?), we can glean an idea of where cutoff scores will line up. If they are reporting that an average top 100 scorer (who shouldnât make NMSF if only the top 18 or so special snowflakes will make it) is in the 99+ range, then the SI percentiles are probably way off and canât be used as predictors of cutoff scores. There is some hard data indicating that GAâs cutoff will be higher than anyone would have thought possible.
@dallaspiano Prior SI tables showed percentiles based on roughly 1.5 million PSAT test takers from the prior year. I suspect that what youâll eventually discover is that this yearâs table shows a percentile rank based on approx 3 million juniors whether on not they took the test (the dubious national representative sample). If you look at the table that way, it makes a lot more sense.
If all these numbers are to be believed, I canât imagine that the scores in places like DC and NJ are going to go down much at all from prior years. Iâve seen estimates of 220-222 but I think itâs likely to be even higher than that - based on both the SI charts and the concordance charts. Last year, after all, the highest cutoffs was 225. I think itâs complicated by the fact that at the highest score bands one wrong answer could be the difference of 2 points on the SI. I think there are going to be a lot of students missing NM in their state by a hair and lots of cases of lower scores with slightly higher SIs qualifying over higher scores with lower SIs. The only way around that would be for NM to say "A minimum score of 14xx AND and SI of xxx, but I donât see that happening. Itâs all going to mean people need a new mindset because for purposes of NM, the score doesnât matter (except as an âindicationâ of what the new SAT score might look like).
This is going to be a rough year for gc for top kids on the edge (and for their parents as well). I look forward to more state-level data being released
<<just seems="" a="" bit="" odd="" that="" the="" scoring="" scale="" went="" down="" from="" 240="" to="" 228="" &="" yet="" so="" many="" cut="" offs="" will="" be="" same="" or="" higher.="" but="" things="" seem="" pointing="" such="" result.="">>
@CA1543 it has a lower ceiling but was also a more straightforward test for the very well prepared. It was also 1/2 hour longer but eliminated the wrong answer penalty. Iâm wondering if these things were meant to cancel each other out as far as SI cut-offs are supposed to be concerned.
@DoyleB with post #1093. Your number âbased on approx 3 million juniorsâ
Please look at table 2 from this link
http://www.cobbk12.org/news/2016/PSAT2015.pdf,
the number is 1,724,416 test takers (in 11th grade), to be exact.
Your comment âIf you look at the table that way, it makes a lot more senseâ
How does it make sense when you based on 3 mil instead of 1.7mil. It seems not agree anything.
I understand that you probably do not believe any numbers sent to test takers at all. But I believe the numbers sent to me
Little Disclaimer:
CB does have real data. None of us can access to. Yes, it is fun to estimate cut off based on on certain speculations. But too much of it, would turn you against yourself, angry at others if they do not agree with yours and etc⊠for just trying to prove that you are more right.
Hey, more right does not mean right on. You got to believe the number sent to you by CB
Hey, just say âmy badâ, then let it go. No personal grudge at all
@dallaspiano â You are so astute & such a huge thoughtful contributor! But I know you have school & I think you mentioned having the SAT on Saturday â so please take care and do what you should as a student - you have important priorities - we are all speculating and are invested in this for a number of reasons. I have to confess that when I started this thread I could not have anticipated the level of discussion & analysis - truly incredible. But some of us have become a bit obsessed I confess & I am not sure it is so healthy (I need to get other things done too but have been too focused on this). Weâll hopefully get more info soon. You are pretty awesome â get rest and I hope all goes well at school!!
@CA1543, thank for remind me. I quit right away, get ready for my SAT Saturday