National Merit Cutoff Predictions Class of 2017

Here is Walton High School’s 2013 PSAT scores if anyone wants to compare to 2015.

Test Takers: 564
CR Mean: 55.5
Math Mean: 56.9
Writing Mean: 53.9

Also have all other Cobb school district data from 2013.

@Plotinus “I agree some people are going to score 800, 790, 780, and 770 on the SAT sections, so there will be some stretching out of the curve at the top. I don’t think everyone is going to move up 40 points”.

Agreed, not everyone is going to move up 40 points and moving down 40 points is also a probability. Lots of variables which despite best preparation affect how someone tests. Whether they are having an off day or there is a distraction at the test center. who knows. The only thing for certain is at the end of the day it’s just a test and there are many aspects of an applicant.

There was a good piece on Nightline on Thursday (1/21) with dean’s of Harvard and MIT. They are concerned that applicants are focused on metrics because the student is heavily focused on their personal accomplishments and they want students that want to be part of a community. MIT said they added a new question to the application which is what have you done to improve the lives of others?

224 1500 in NJ

@Speedy2019 Yay more data to play with! Although my conclusions are just going to seem like I’m piling on, and beating a dead horse.

Average SI in 2013: 55.5+56.9+53.9 = 166.3. Look 166.3 up in last year’s SI table - between 78 and 79 percentile

This year’s average: (599*2 + 608)/10 = 180.6. Look 180.6 in this year’s SI table = between 88 and 89 percentile.

There’s that pesky inflation again.

222, 1480 MN (daughter)

How about everyone helps me reaching out to your own state to get actual scores & I’ll keep updated my excel? We might have our own results before the CB… is it possible? Got about 200 scores, 15,800 more to go!

My daughter in UTAH got 1480, index of 220. Perfect in math but weaker in reading. Hope it’s enough; glad we are not in DC :slight_smile:

I think (hope) the GC reports are comparing actual students & schools to the state & national averages. I heard from our GC-- National ave. is 1010 total score - don’t think the GCs have national SI but CB Table suggests it is 140. NY’s mean score is 968. We had about 140-150 students take the PSAT (47%). Our school’s ave. was 1138. My son’s 1470 - SI 218.

211,1410 KY

@slaudsmom we can’t know for sure of course, but your daughter’s score seems very safe in UT, based on all the different prediction methods people have come up with. Is she looking at BYU?

know of one 220 in CA

Yes. She got 34 on ACT, which is only a one year full tuition to BYU. For 4 year she needs a 35, so she will retake and try again. They also offer some 4 year to NM winners, so that is our backup, buy we wouldn’t know in time since I don’t think we would find out til almost graduation. She would like Stanford, and while I think she would get in, I don’t think she would get the $$$ to pay for it.

Also in our school there are two more students I know , 1480 and 1490 score, all in CA, SI is not known.

Buy we are late in the game trying to figure all of this out. Her school counselor is not helpful at all…

@DoyleB, Wheeler also has inflation, but much smaller:

Test Takers: 122
CR Mean: 61.6
Math Mean: 63.4
Writing Mean: 59.6

Average SI in 2013: 61.6+63.4+59.6 = 184.6. Look 184.6 up in last year’s SI table = between 90 and 91 percentile

This year’s average: (637*2 + 648)/10 = 192.2. Look 192.2 in this year’s SI table = 93 percentile

Maybe the lower percentiles have more “inflation” with less inflation as you move higher up the percentiles.
Walton had lower percentile mean school score in 2013 than Wheeler and thus more “inflation”.

I think this is what Applerouth’s graph - PSAT Scores vs Percentiles (2015 Concorded), showed. The inflation at the high percentiles was still there, but much, much less - widest inflation in the middle.

BTW: here is Georgia’s DOE table from 2013: http://www.gadoe.org/External-Affairs-and-Policy/communications/Documents/SAT%20High%20School%20Scores%202014.pdf

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@slaudsmom from everything I’ve read, BYU is one of the best deals in town for LDS students. Very highly ranked university and I’ve known many who were in some pretty rigorous grad school programs so perhaps she can attend Stanford later on :slight_smile:

A 220 should be golden in UT based on the state’s historical cut-off.

@Speedy2019 I agree with everything you posted. Indeed, because Applerouth has a connection to these schools, the data he used for his graphs likely includes the data we’re using here. All we’re doing is duplicating a small part of the work he already did. I wish he would have published a graph that shows only the 210 and up part of the curves - that’s the most interesting for NMSF. It would give us a better understanding of the inflation at the top end.

Clarification from @Chembiodad - 1440 / 219 NJ

Ha ha…can only hope. I should really forget about it since it is a new test and no one knows for sure. So surely I can’t choose the glass in front of you, right? (Princess bride)